mattb65 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 For the last few hours it seems to be heading a bit more West than WNW, if the models are right it should wobble back NW soon unless I'm having weenie radar and satellite hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Truly remarkable... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Crazy tight core for this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Chinook said: I really didn't expect this hurricane to be at a 90mph intensity near Hawaii, but here it is Seems to doing well with even a more suppressed Kelvin Wave moving though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 My latest point and click forecast has sustained winds up to 72 mph with gusts to 107 with winds gradually building between now and 6 pm local time. Probably overdone, I can't imagine it being that potent, based on the latest track I'm forecast to be just about 20 miles south of the center. Here's a link to my PWS ... https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/38704fd0f276d994f67e56b1851919ce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Video update on Douglas, I really need to spruce up my pronunciation of Hawaiian islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Luckily the Northern side of Ohau is sparsely populated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 I am not confident of eyewall interaction with the islands now. Yes the mid-level vortex is slightly tilted north of the low-level vortex, but the convection within the eye band looks like it may miss Oahu entirely if just clip Laie. It's possible that the mid-to-upper southerly flow is nudging the core more WNW besides causing shear. Edit: I should clarify the main islands. If the core were to somehow survive, it should cross the smaller Hawaiian Leeward Islands and atolls. I don't think it will manage that feat as a hurricane, surely not! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Still an amazingly tight core considering how far north this system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Very impressive system for its location. I did not expect the storm to remain this intact through the cooler waters. Luckily it looks like the core will remain offshore sparing Hawaii from major impacts. Awesome to watch storms on radar though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Thankfully it stayed on the north side of the cone, the hwrf did really well in the track of this one. The local forecast was way off on winds and rain. Forecast for 3-4 inches of rain and we got under 0.1", wind was forecast for gusts over 100 and we didn't gust higher than 30 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Douglas got guillotined... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Premature time of death called by NHC? Since there last advisory the cyclone has maintained deep convection for the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Premature time of death called by NHC? Since there last advisory the cyclone has maintained deep convection for the past few hours. The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless. Zombie storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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