ARyan Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, PB-99 said: F- 0 IMO I'd lean towards a microburst but most likely just straight line winds. There's no evidence of a circulation in the water or rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 as soon as we heat up this afternoon storms are going to fill in. no cap and a moist profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, ARyan said: I'd lean towards a microburst but most likely just straight line winds. There's no evidence of a circulation in the water or rain. That's what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: as soon as we heat up this afternoon storms are going to fill in. no cap and a moist profile Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Looks like a couple of lines of storms/showers trying to form over northeast PA, SE NY and extreme NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 hours ago, PB-99 said: F- 0 IMO Looks like a wet micro burst to me. We could play back the radar loops and see if there was any rotation detected. this evening should produce a few more severe storms in our area. Leaning towards central and south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Review: Appears to me 2 bands of big storms going to move east southeast through portions of the NYC forum between now and midnight, with isolated heavy showers ahead of and in between. Of possibly greater interest to me for widespread heavy rain is just north of the frontal boundary between 2AM and 10AM Friday (LI-I80 southward). Line in MA has been SPC watched. That may extend back into ne PA soon? The line further back in central NYS may be bigger deal (warning out recently)...that one is closer to the wind shift. Not quite as ripe ahead of the lines as yesterday but would not give up yet... Have plenty of instability, moisture and lift arriving this evening. (see what's happening over L Erie in cloud animation at 1830z). For Friday morning: there could be quite a band of heavy rain just north of boundary if the wind turns light north or northeast by dawn Friday...accentuating sublet lift of a wet airmass. Not severe but rainfall of over 1" in 6 hours possible. Not guaranteeing but that has been cued by the UK and less robustly in a few other models. Just have to wait this out a little more and watch upstream development, surface convergence and dew point pooling near 74F for the prefrontal few SVR or FF. I think there will be some action to discuss in our area by 6PM. 240P/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillycane Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 SVR Tstorm watch up for much of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looks like a wet micro burst to me. We could play back the radar loops and see if there was any rotation detected. this evening should produce a few more severe storms in our area. Leaning towards central and south jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, TriPol said: Figured it was a downburst. Winds got crazy out of no where yesterday here in Jersey City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, SRRTA22 said: Figured it was a downburst. Winds got crazy out of no where yesterday here in Jersey City Yeah. That was a lot of fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Watch issued... not seeing much activity yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Animal said: Watch issued... not seeing much activity yet The line way back in NYS might be the one to watch-that won't get here till 8 or 9 though at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: The line way back in NYS might be the one to watch-that won't get here till 8 or 9 though at the earliest Hope you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Downpour with a bit of thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Looks like a bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 i think yesterday's mcs overturned the atmosphere too much and the clouds this morning lingered too long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Looks about right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Getting some heavy rain, thunder and lightning here currently. Nothing severe at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks about right The lone severe thunderstorm warning in the state is where the watch is not in effect, classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Getting some decent lightning and thunder currently. It’s been a active two days here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 In my area...it will struggle to see rain. you get this every now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 .25" in a downpour earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 Not over. Iso SVR possible thru the night...not probable but frontal boundary, PWAT 1.9", 850 vorticity with trough coming sewd, RRQ 500mb jet and activity not yet waning very much in PA/CT (esp CT where its not supposed to be doing much in the models). I think the NAM12K has it right and while I could be wrong, I am looking for showers, iso thunderstorms to expand eastward along I80-LI and persist into the 10AM Friday hour. If I'm wrong, I'm possibly just a touch too far north. I saw minor svr late this aftn toward Red Bank NJ, possibly now in sw CT, and Pequest NJ area already past 3.6" for the entire forecast period. Will try to gather a few more reports in the morning thru 12z only. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 another crush job here-lightning, heavy rains. Closing in on 9 inches of rain for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Storm coverage is starting to increase. Atmosphere still is unstable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Those two cells off the south shore are creating another fantastic light show if you can get a good line of sight. Hamptons out to Montauk must be getting it good right now. They don’t get svr warned often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Constant lightning to my south, sky lighting up every 3-5 seconds, makes it feel much closer than it actually is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Lightning here. Looks like the storms are delayed but not denied for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Couple of pics looking north across the sound from earlier. Bridgeport looked to be getting it good. Then a storm formed right over me with a strike about a quarter-mile away so I beat feet. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now