crossbowftw3 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 I can see the backside of the cell that's up near I-84 now. Looks fairly benign. The main part of the line is approaching Allentown and continues to fill in to the North, so hopefully things hold together. SPC mesoanalyis indicates roughly 3000-3500 J/KG of SBCAPE in place and strong low level lapse rates coupled with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Should be enough to sustain the line with damaging winds possible. This isolated activity ahead of the line should also leave behind some boundaries which could locally enhance activity. Strongest storm currently looks like a discrete cell in the Catskills which appears to be a right mover. Depending on exact trajectory and intensity it could make it down into parts of the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 i think this makes it to nassau county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Nothing dramatic with this line as it passes through here. No strong winds or torrential downpours. The line that passed through late last evening was much more impressive- especially in terms of the downpours associated with it. Lightning here is mainly CTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 fwiw at 540P...the line developing northeastward (northern extent so far) toward Wantage in far nw NJ is the real deal... very dark south and southwest. Can see nice building CU/CB at north end of the line and we should be assured of doubling the .01 we received around 315P. Also saw the two hail reports with the 310-320P cells in far nw Nj and they sort of looked like hailers on my visuals (so much light showing through the falling precip). Any way, this 540 PM line should be more productive for the NYC forum except maybe Middletown NY area. Enjoy whatever you receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Tons and tons of CTG in this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said: Tons and tons of CTG in this line. That cell out ahead of the line means business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: That cell out ahead of the line means business Oh yeah...loud thunder with plenty of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That cell out ahead of the line means business That formed near me, and I can vouch for the many short CTG strokes I heard. Glad it's moving away. Sorry you're getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 I'm in Piscataway atm and this cell is pretty wicked. Lots of loud thunder and lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Constant thunder from that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 What a gorgeous line, the models never really saw this to this extent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Getting slammed! Best storm of the summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: What a gorgeous line, the models never really saw this to this extent. The models have been a bit clueless this summer with severe/heavy rainfall events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Getting it good now in round 2 for the day. Winds, heavy rain. Not too much lightening/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Nice storm. Lots of wind and ton of lightning and thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: What a gorgeous line, the models never really saw this to this extent. Not the versions after around 12z... but prior to that NAM3k, HRRR etc were pretty robust on a 5-9P line traversing virtually all of our area. This happens sometimes, the models see something for several cycles well in advance, then lose it in shorter lead time (not good and inconsistent). However, when 12z runs didn't init well for 16z radar, we had a hint the models had problems. Anyway a number of 1.5-2.5" reports today from near Mount Olive Township to near Glen Gardner. Probably going to be some road travel problems by 745PM in more eastern parts of paved regions in NJ due to excessive short term rainfall. Also noting more and more severe reports from the mid afternoon ne PA complex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 A really good looking line of strong/severe storms moving into the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Power flickering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size. Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target. Might've gotten a few on video. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Just now, Will - Rutgers said: Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size. Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target. Might've gotten a few on video. The radar just exploded over our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Multiple trees and wires down in north Edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Warning for almost the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Heavy rain, thunder and lightning here. Winds picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 DOA here. Too far North. Story of the year IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Radar just keeps exploding here...wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not the versions after around 12z... but prior to that NAM3k, HRRR etc were pretty robust on a 5-9P line traversing virtually all of our area. This happens sometimes, the models see something for several cycles well in advance, then lose it in shorter lead time (not good and inconsistent). However, when 12z runs didn't init well for 16z radar, we had a hint the models had problems. Anyway a number of 1.5-2.5" reports today from near Mount Olive Township to near Glen Gardner. Probably going to be some road travel problems by 745PM in more eastern parts of paved regions in NJ due to excessive short term rainfall. Also noting more and more severe reports from the mid afternoon ne PA complex. It just appears more robust and larger in to S in coverage than what I was looking at earlier. Good call on your part from Sunday having this on your radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Heavy rain and some thunder and lightning from the lead cell here in Manhattan, the main show should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The radar just exploded over our area This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too. Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex. Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it. It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts. Major street flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too. Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex. Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it. It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts. Major street flooding. Yeah its been going close to 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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