Uncertain for NYC forum but TSTMS may be a problem later tonight or Monday

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Modeling looks terribly slow and ineffective for two bands of convection this evening in NYS/PA. Running much faster. If this is true... parts of our NYC forum, at least se NYS and nw NJ are going to experience a brief heavy shower or gusty thunderstorm between 815PM and midnight  and possibly again near 2AM Monday.  That leaves us with what for Monday afternoon? I think a pretty ripe environment for big storms maybe even up just N of I80...with interestingly large mid level lapse rates, especially I78 south.  Not promising big stuff near NYC but it seems to me modeling (not SPC - check their Marginal D2) is missing potential svr/ff, especially southern part of our forum Monday afternoon 2P-7P.   Will rereview how things are going Monday morning around 7A, but for now... it looks like big heat has generated big storms Sunday evening just west of the forum and I think very poorly modeled. If someone has seen a model that is performing admirably in PA/NYS to the Poconos and Catskills, please let us know. 

735P/19

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Good Monday morning everyone,

Have attached what happened since 6PM yesterday, lightning, severe reports and radar for our area (most of it after 22z/19 though there were a few isolated cells early Sunday afternoon in se NYS/ne PA). The reason for the attachments... the overnight reality was not well modeled by the models including the HRRR and SPC HREF (and still not as of 6AM/20). Which leads me to this afternoon.  Please see SPCD1 and local NWS offices for details on any evolution. I know most of the models are dry except UK/Canadian have spotty action but I'm not convinced.

I suppose most of NYC forum is out of the convection this afternoon, but I'm still alert for isolated eastward moving severe storms in our area developing 2-4PM this afternoon I95 corridor eastward, inclusive of extreme southern CT, LI, eastern and southern NJ.  Plenty of instability with a surface trough nearby.  Wind direction will start sorting itself out with mixing around 9 or 10AM and then we'll see what we have.  If no new CU fields ~11A, then probably nothing. Mid level lapse rates increase this afternoon-especially south of the modeled 500MB  -5C cap aligned just nw of I95 at 18z (thats why I chose I95 corridor southeastward and also thinking back to yesterdays SPC D2). GFS CAPE looks more reasonable then that very low 18z CAPE of the EC. 637A/20

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Nothing going on and probably little or none today in our area. Closest shower at 335P looks near DCA. Where there are cu fields, they still look pretty flat. Was thinking LI breezes could go but apparently too stable, so far.  338P/20

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Wrapping up: nothing happened Monday afternoon, probably due to some drying aloft, trough too close (West-northwest wind too close to the city).This gives the dry short term modeling the correct answer, (long term modeling was too robust for Monday the 20th).