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STILL N OF PIKE
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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is 10 after 10?

it's a quick and dirty kinda estimator for hundo chances around here...

Say it is 90 F by 9 am = 100 has a fair chance with still 7 hours to get 10 F out squeezed out of our unique ability to fail... In Dallas, TX 90 by 9 is slam dunk...around here?  We still rock-back and forth in angst even..  

but 90 by 9 gives a bit of a cushion for fumbling around with errant intervals of wind or cloud contamination, ...because it's gotten to 90 so early...it doesn't have to be perfect in terms of those other parametric limitation.   10 after 10 means similarly... you only need 10 more degrees with six hours to of heating to play with.. but things have to be really really non-interfering because time is limiting... It's harder to get 10 after 11 and on and so on...

They're just non-tested  adages ..heh that seem to have intuitive usefulness

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1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

7/22/11 is great example of this! 

Data from my old Davis back home in Shrewsbury that day:

Screen Shot 2020-07-19 at 10.02.20 AM.png

you can see the temp starting to level off a bit at 96 around 1 pm with dews in the low 70s. dews mix out into the low 50s and you get that last 3-4 degree rise .. I believe max was 99.5 and by far the hottest temp I recorded there (since 2006) 

This was a little different. We had a trough come through mid morning that acted like a dryline. That's when the dews fell from 70-75F down into the 50s. The weak CAA happened later on. It's still mixing and the same idea...we just had a wind shift, an increase in the PGF, and downsloping on top of it from the WNW.

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29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at 12Z FOUS-tomorrow has everything save T1.....

Mm.. T1 is symptom of the wind direciton...  Southeast of a rough axis ... say, Willimantic CT to Bedford Mass ... anywhere over the region, heat enthusiasts are getting royally porked by the wind direction...

Just look at ALB ... and compare the T1 to BOS ( which happens to be Logan...) ... Something is shaving 12 F off the nocturnals platform and it's got to be the Hemlock wind direction pulling in marine toxin from the S...

This is why that 240 wind direction is key... 

SNE is hybrid climate ... it's a mash up of cold marine mix with blazing hot continent...  You may as well put a ruler on a map between NYC-PWD...anything SE of there should have it's own climate distinction -

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway, I was more concerned about the dews today vs yesterday. The torch spots are still running around 70+ sans BDL. It'll be hot either way...just pick your poison. Do you want 95/70 or 99/62?

100/80

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This 210 wind direction isn’t gonna get it done for daily record stuff. Even like 250-260 would be a lot better. 

That's not bad up here with the Monads and ORH hills...we have more wiggle room for compression here. Obviously you know that. ;)

Getting a bit more mixing with dews dropping into the mid 60s at the NH sites. The Merr Valley is getting into that 90-92F range now.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's not bad up here with the Monads and ORH hills...we have more wiggle room for compression here. Obviously you know that. ;)

Getting a bit more mixing with dews dropping into the mid 60s at the NH sites. The Merr Valley is getting into that 90-92F range now.

Yeah for SNE you want it more westerly. 210 is actually coming off LI sound for most of CT and RI/E MA in addition to less downsloping...BDL/BAF are far enough northwest to be ok though. You can prob throw places like FIT in there too tucked up right against WaWa to the SW.

NH is definitely better off. You get that good compression off Monads/ORH hills/Wapack range. 

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Noon 84.5/70      Last summer my high was 89.5F   Will I break that today.  90F is not too common at 1100 feet in Central NH.   My weather station high is around 96F but that was when I had the station several feet above my roof peak.  Now it's out at 2meters in the apple orchard with the fan so I get much more accurate readings.

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when you start at 65..you aren’t hitting 95 by noon. Still some stations are close which to me is a bit more impressive than I thought we would see.

We still got 4 hours of heating and increasing 850’s currently 

I am anticipating several 98’s today for torch spots , this thread was really just do to boredom and a decent hot Airmass , not some once a decade heat 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a pretty common rule of thumb for high temps on well mixed days (which can go awry with high dews at times). Add 10 degrees to your 10 AM temp and that's approximately your expected high. 

We grabbed 7 degrees between 11am-12pm, so 10 should be pretty easy.

86/67

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32 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

when you start at 65..you aren’t hitting 95 by noon. Still some stations are close which to me is a bit more impressive than I thought we would see.

We still got 4 hours of heating and increasing 850’s currently 

I am anticipating several 98’s today for torch spots , this thread was really just do to boredom and a decent hot Airmass , not some once a decade heat 

Not necessarily true for the radiating sites. CON had a low of 66F on 7/14/95 and finished 101F.

7/3/1966 CON had a low of 64F and tied their all-time high of 102F in the afternoon.

The 1st of back-to-back 101s at CON on 7/20/1977 started with a low of 66F. The noon ob was missing, but at 1pm they were 97F.

The 101F on hot Saturday started with a low of 68F. They were 95F at noon and 98F at 1pm.

That 1911 heat wave saw many lows in the 60s.

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