STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 A regional Heatwave is getting underway for Many in CNE /SNE outside of the South Coast and Cape. 850 mb temps look to peak in the range of 21-22c by Sunday pm.. NNE will see cooler 850 temps Monday which may limit their ability to hit official heatwave status but they will bake big Sunday. Lets discuss and or list observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: A regional Heatwave is getting underway for Many outside of the South Coast and Cape. 850 mb temps look to peak in the range of 21-22c by Sunday pm.. NNE will see cooler 850 temps Monday which may limit their ability to hit official heatwave status. Lets discuss and or list observations. Beach, lakes and pools, thongs and banana hammocks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2020 Author Share Posted July 18, 2020 I was on treadmill and started this , I know someone else could have done a better job but ...this is the heat ...torch lovers enjoy so let’s do this . Newport Mañana. Looked Dewey last time I looked with less heat from Ocean Breeze . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 York Beach Maine it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beach, lakes and pools, thongs and banana hammocks I'll take the under on temps and that amount of mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: York Beach Maine it is. We went last weekend, picked the wrong weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'll take the under on temps and that amount of mixing. Ryan just said BDL could hit 100 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'll take the under on temps and that amount of mixing. agreed, but maybe not a big under? I do think there will be a boundary ( ssw vs wsw flow) like that shown in that depiction that seperates MU 90s and dews in the low 60s and 90ish and dews around 70. Maybe bdl or ash could make a run at 100, but as of now id take the under by a hair. would need everything to go “right” but its in play imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 for 100 id wanna see no cloud contamination, high launching pad to start, if possible move the plume of 20-21 c 850 temps in earlier, and more of a west component wrt wind direction. even then you are counting on mixing to like 825-800 mb ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 I just think models have overdone the mixing a bit the last couple years during the bigger heat events. I just think we’ll see more 97/62 type obs on the high end rather than 101/54. Maybe BDL does a 98° or something, but I don’t think that would surprise anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I just think models have overdone the mixing a bit the last couple years during the bigger heat events. I just think we’ll see more 97/62 type obs on the high end rather than 101/54. Maybe BDL does a 98° or something, but I don’t think that would surprise anyone. Pretty solid agreement at 850 around 21C, solidly around 96 max temp if you mix that all down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty solid agreement at 850 around 21C, solidly around 96 max temp if you mix that all down. Question for you... When you guys trace your adiabats and/or use machine interpolation and/or just 'rain-man' it ... do you guess the stop sigma at 1000 mb level... I've come to find that this is insufficient for the 2-meter ( ...kind of an intuitively obvious statement and I know I'm preaching to the choir) ...but, it seems pretty obvious to me also that the lower 20 to 50 mb of the logorithmic slope cannot be addressed that way - if/when one stops at 1000 from 21C/850 elevation ... they will be too cold in "perfect" heating scenarios. I've actually measured this to be true... 21C can easily 2-meter a 100 F on Rt 9 out in Metro West of Boston and city fart 99's to Logan if the wind is right too... DP notwithstanding - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Question for you... When you guys trace your adiabats and/or use machine interpolation and/or just 'rain-man' it ... do you guess stop the stop sigma at 1000 mb level... I've come to find that this is insufficient for the 2-meter ( ...kind of an intuitively obvious statement and I know I'm preaching to the choir) ...but, it seems pretty obvious to me also that the lower 20 to 50 mb of the logorithmic slope cannot be addressed that way - if/when one stops at 1000 from 21C/850 elevation ... they will be too cold in "perfect" heating scenarios. I've actually measured this to be true... 21C can easily 2-meter a 100 F on Rt 9 out in Metro West of Boston and city fart 99's to Logan if the wind is right too... DP notwithstanding - We have a quick reference guide based on average 850 mb height and sea level. But our tool uses actual forecast height and elevation, so far more accurate as you state. I'm getting 97 in southern NH, so warmer than that at a lower elevation is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty solid agreement at 850 around 21C, solidly around 96 max temp if you mix that all down. The cheat rule is +15C in summer so yeah, that gets you about 36C. I guess that’s not really a rule per se...just following a dry adiabat down to the sfc. With everything right like downsloping, solar peak, lower evapotranspiration, dry surface fuels, etc BDL, FIT, MHT, etc can pull +17C, but we’ve had a bit of a wet stretch recently. I just hedge toward slightly dewier than the afternoon mid 50s progs and thermodynamics keeps it a relatively “cooler” 97° vs 101°. Maybe we’re debating 59° vs 60° dews again since it’s hot either way and the heat indices wouldn’t really be different in either scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: for 100 id wanna see no cloud contamination, high launching pad to start, if possible move the plume of 20-21 c 850 temps in earlier, and more of a west component wrt wind direction. even then you are counting on mixing to like 825-800 mb ish? Tend to agree... Particularly as the summer ages... It's more than half over in climo parlance ... but, insolation dimming is factorable earlier for us than PHL - lol.. but it is... I remember 22 C/850 mb day in 2002 once and we only made 96 F ... The forecast was 101 and heat warnings were banner'ed ... But, from 10:55 am to 1:34 pm a decapitated CB plume was of course ... not modeled from off the shore -front nocturnal nuances of upstate NY, wafts overhead and nope... I remember it being 94 at 10am ...and I'm off to the races in my mind with the old "10 after 10" and "90 by 9" adages ...etc.... Two more clicks is all we could muster for the milk sun... and since the DPs were only low 60s for that one I'm not sure we really verified warning -+22C at 850 ...pedestrian heat. Welcome to "Nuance England" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The cheat rule is +15C in summer so yeah, that gets you about 36C. I guess that’s not really a rule per se...just following a dry adiabat down to the sfc. With everything right like downsloping, solar peak, lower evapotranspiration, dry surface fuels, etc BDL, FIT, MHT, etc can pull +17C, but we’ve had a bit of a wet stretch recently. I just hedge toward slightly dewier than the afternoon mid 50s progs and thermodynamics keeps it a relatively “cooler” 97° vs 101°. Maybe we’re debating 59° vs 60° dews again since it’s hot either way and the heat indices wouldn’t really be different in either scenario. Yeah I have them topping out right around 100, which really isn't that much hotter than the ambient temp considering how hot it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We have a quick reference guide based on average 850 mb height and sea level. But our tool uses actual forecast height and elevation, so far more accurate as you state. I'm getting 97 in southern NH, so warmer than that at a lower elevation is not out of the question. Ah ..okay - so you were being quick and dirty - right ...should not take the banter of the wild-wild-west of the internet to heart ...lol... Yeah, I mean... that sort of discrete analysis is needed blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 60000547325 00191 113008 81332416 That's PHL, 12z NAM FOUS numbers for Monday afternoon... I love that 33C at T1 ...so that could put up 2-meter of 38 C given that WNW wind, BUT... might be difficult to achieve that with that RH2 > 50% though.. Could effect that log-p ... What's funny is LGA and BOS are shy by a couple clicks (30 to 32C) but have critial RH levels at or less than 50% indicating they don't have contamination ( as much...) on this particular run and model, for that same time frame... So, they could actually 2-meter as warm or warmer if they have the 1 to 4pm open sky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Hope we hit 100 tomorrow, always a nice milestone like 0F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Hope we hit 100 tomorrow, always a nice milestone like 0F I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Funny ... the NAM/MET MOS is shaving degrees on the 12z interpolation ...not sure I see that happenin' ... but meh, 97 .. 98 whatever - ...93 at LGA seems pretty bullshitty though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ... Most of the newer stations with fans seem to run cooler than ASOS now. They receive proper aspiration and they’re in rural countrysides with more ET. Some of the airport ASOS sites look like barren wastelands in the summer now and we know how well most of them mix out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ... I actually find it the other way around here. Most of the PWS temps being lower than the ASOS sites in full afternoon glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 92 for ORH Sunday maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2020 Author Share Posted July 18, 2020 1pm temp leaders TAN 89/66 BED 89/63 Norwood 90/65 Bradley 89/59 westfield 88/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 My davis gets quite a bit of sun and my highs are still almost always colder than ash/mht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 92 for ORH Sunday maybe? 100? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: Hope we hit 100 tomorrow, always a nice milestone like 0F 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 100? 100 at ORH ain’t happenin’. 99 is their all time record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 110 You can always adjust up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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