A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 The amount of lightning in this early am llj convection is wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Upper-level WV imagery is key to finding these subtle shortwaves that kick off warm-season convection. I haven't really seen any guidance catch onto the activity over Chicago, etc now. Going back to 0930Z, look how the cells fire on the leading edge of that darker spot on WV. Model assimilation needs to be able to key in on these features to get it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Purely anecdotal based on past observations, but in the past I've noticed when there's limited cirrus debris blowing out ahead a complex of storms, they tend to reintensify with the onset of daytime heating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Best thunder of the summer tons of real bangers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Best thunder of the summer tons of real bangers it really is constant. love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: Purely anecdotal based on past observations, but in the past I've noticed when there's limited cirrus debris blowing out ahead a complex of storms, they tend to reintensify with the onset of daytime heating. good observation. obviously depends on a lot of factors, but if the air mass is able to destabilize to surface-based convection owing to the lack of debris clouds, then things can fire up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: good observation. obviously depends on a lot of factors, but if the air mass is able to destabilize to surface-based convection owing to the lack of debris clouds, then things can fire up quickly. Between that and what you pointed out earlier about the shortwave, I'm definitely feeling better about Detroit's severe weather chances than I did last night. None of the models seemingly have a handle of the storms over the southern part of Lake Michigan back through Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: Between that and what you pointed out earlier about the shortwave, I'm definitely feeling better about Detroit's severe weather chances than I did last night. Will have to see the 12Z upper air data to determine capping and the convective trigger temp, but timing out what's here now, this activity will be near Detroit around 17-18Z/1-2ET. Plenty of time to heat up from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Getting mini trained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 A precipitable water value of 2.37" on the 12Z DVN sounding is among the top 5 highest observed there, and is only 0.10" away from the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 The slight risk area has been expanded further NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: The slight risk area has been expanded further NW again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Models not doing well with the IL/SE IA convection a couple of severe warmed storms in SE IA cloud tops continue to cool and expand HRRR trying to catch up looks like some training over the south Chicago Suburbs incoming ILX update RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AROUND 5-6 AM, WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHICAGO METRO TO PEORIA, WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. MODEL DEPICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN STELLAR WITH THEIR ACCURACY THUS FAR IN THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THE NSSL WRF APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON AT LEAST THE ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Models not doing well with the IL/SE IA convection a couple of severe warmed storms in SE IA DVN radar indicating ~80mph winds around 3500' with those. Curious to see if that cluster rides the front into Chicago towards midday or early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 This line in south of Chicago is rockin. Lots of lightning and some decent wind gusts. Wonder if tstorm warning goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: DVN radar indicating ~80mph winds around 3500' with those. Curious to see if that cluster rides the front into Chicago towards midday or early afternoon. Good t storm with pouring rain here at Griffith now. I hope that second cluster moves more se when it gets to Chi town area. Under a significant wx advisory for strong storms until 9:30 and a flood advisory until 11:45. Two inches of rain have already fallen in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 new development east of the western cluster just west of me...clusters may merge meanwhile...A quick spin up? 0842 AM TSTM WND DMG SPERRY 40.95N 91.15W 07/19/2020 DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR BILLBOARD DAMAGE AND TWISTED SIGNS BY THE JOHN DEERE DEALERSHIP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 WPC for flooding ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0506 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 958 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 191358Z - 191858Z SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 1.0-2.0" WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DISCUSSION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN IOWA, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST HOUR PER RECENT RADAR RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THE GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND PWS AROUND 2 INCHES (1.75" AT ILX) WHICH IS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. SBCAPE IS NOW UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. FINALLY, PER THE LATEST RAP, 850 MB INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTION REMAINS 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING LATEST HRRR RUNS, ARE NOT INITIALIZING CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WITH INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION AND BUILDING INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE, THERE ISN'T ANY STRONG REASON FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AT THIS POINT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING OR REPEATING ROUNDS GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE STORM MOTION (AND WATCHING THE SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IA THAT COULD GROW FURTHER AND TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS). GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 4 KM, HOURLY TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" CAN BE EXPECTED AND TOTALS THROUGH 18Z AS HIGH AS 3" IN PLACES. THE 7-DAY PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES SHOW SOME ABOVE NORMAL AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS WHERE SOME OF THE FFGS ARE LOWER, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL OVER URBAN OR MORE SENSITIVE AREAS, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Best thunder of the summer tons of real bangers Has sounded like bombs going off at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 7 t-storm warnings and several reports of wind damage with that western cluster not even a meso from SPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 7 t-storm warnings and several reports of wind damage with that western cluster not even a meso from SPCSunday shift.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Southern Lasalle and southern Grundy county needs a flash flood warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 This area got 3-8 inches last Weds...much of woodford got 6-8 inches then also 3-4 inches down over southern Grundy and that cluster is still well west.... come on LOT where is the flash flooding warning? BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT. * AT 1004 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN FOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 and where is SPC still.... not a good day for the pros BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 AM CDT. * AT 1011 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TISKILWA, OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF PRINCETON, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM! HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Finally something MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191512Z - 191645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONTINUATION OF LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BOWING/SURGING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 50 KT AT THIS TIME. THE STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LYING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOWING CLUSTER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL/CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA, WHICH -- ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DENSE CLOUD COVER HINDERING HEATING -- SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TEMPERED/LOCAL AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. HOWEVER, WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE, AND MODERATE/UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE, CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND RISK MAY REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, CONTINUATION OF SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS INTO REGIONS THAT HAVE BEEN RAIN-COOLED COULD PROMPT WW CONSIDERATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 AM CDT CURRENTLY, A COMPACT BOWING LINE OF STORMS (AND ASSOCIATED MCV) IS MOVING ACROSS HENRY, BUREAU, STARK, AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES. THE BOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 80-85KT RIJ SEEN NICELY ON OUR RADAR, WITH REPORTS FROM NWS QUAD CITIES CONFIRMING SEVERE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS INTO WHICH HEAVY RAIN AND HENCE COOL AIR HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT OPTIMALLY STRONG TO BALANCE SUCH A STRONG SURGING RIJ/COLD POOL, CONFIDENCE IN THE DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO PLOW INTO LA SALLE COUNTY IS NOT HIGH EVEN THOUGH A RESERVOIR OF PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CLUSTER. SO, WHILE THE BOW MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS, THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AND HENCE LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO AN ISOLATED BASIS. WE TOUCHED BASE WITH SPC AND THEY AGREE - THOUGH IF DAMAGE CONTINUES INTO LA SALLE COUNTY, WE WILL HAVE TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL APPROACH THE CHICAGO AREA, WHILE OTHER STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 I just got an alert on my phone of a tornado warning for my region, I just see some weak rotation south of Clifford that is now gone. Its linear "crapped-the-bed" squall line that moved through so I dunno? There were 3 separate tornado warnings including near London and Mitchell (tornado capital of Ontario). Very dark morning with increasing rumbles of thunder. Imagine if every mid-day in the summer was like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now