HoarfrostHubb Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1.5” here from last night’s storms. We wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, White Rain said: Not bad we got drenched here but needed it badly. 3.3”. Some good lightning to boot. Holy moly. Yeah, it was just dumping over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 0.91" in the stratus from yesterday's storms...Some impressive wind gusts, quite a few without power around town too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Holy moly. Yeah, it was just dumping over you. It looked like a drenching from the western shore of the Quabbin right through the WaWa area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe today will work out. Who knows...all I know is NO MORE convective threads after this...none...zilch. Not happening ever again Somebody save this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 A correlation coefficient image from yesterday... The x band view of the cell to the SE was attenuated, especially in the h polarization, but the structure is apparent all the same. Probably good we were missing some ingredient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Got a ton of rain here yesterday.. hoping for something again today that I'm actually not working today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, radarman said: A correlation coefficient image from yesterday... The x band view of the cell to the SE was attenuated, especially in the h polarization, but the structure is apparent all the same. Probably good we were missing some ingredient. oof that is a pretty classic structure. If you were to show that to someone and ask them what they were to expect from that I bet most would say a TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: oof that is a pretty classic structure. If you were to show that to someone and ask them what they were to expect from that I bet most would say a fyp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Going to be a more widespread outbreak today, Lot of debris clouds right now, Would like to see the sun to destabilize more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Going to be a more widespread outbreak today, Lot of debris clouds right now, Would like to see the sun to destabilize more though. Today is a day where instability may be a bit weaker, but we have better dynamics and forcing. the better dynamics/forcing should result in thunderstorms being more widespread but instability (well lack of stronger and deeper instability) will keep any severe more localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 It would be great if the activity could continue into the overnight for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Today is a day where instability may be a bit weaker, but we have better dynamics and forcing. the better dynamics/forcing should result in thunderstorms being more widespread but instability (well lack of stronger and deeper instability) will keep any severe more localized. 0.04" overnight from the leftovers from that batch of cells that passed thru NE MA last evening, I'm expecting a little more today as they look to track further north, Always skeptikal of severe here anyways as they typically get killed by the seabreeze with winds being ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Suns out now time to destabilize 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0.04" overnight from the leftovers from that batch of cells that passed thru NE MA last evening, I'm expecting a little more today as they look to track further north, Always skeptikal of severe here anyways as they typically get killed by the seabreeze with winds being ESE. I think that hindered things in CT too yesterday...I noticed there was a bit of MLCIN which seemed to correlate with the SE flow. This is why you really need an EML in place when dealing with a SE flow...or have SST's which are virtually similar to the dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think that hindered things in CT too yesterday...I noticed there was a bit of MLCIN which seemed to correlate with the SE flow. This is why you really need an EML in place when dealing with a SE flow...or have SST's which are virtually similar to the dewpoints. I do know the marine layer can be more problematic especially up here as SST's are generally colder then in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Going to be a more widespread outbreak today, Lot of debris clouds right now, Would like to see the sun to destabilize more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I do know the marine layer can be more problematic especially up here as SST's are generally colder then in SNE. I've always found the marine layer/convective connection rather interesting. I do sometimes wonder if too much emphasis gets placed on the marine layer...during the spring/early summer I can certainly see it playing a big role, however, I think it also depends. First off, the marine layers usually aren't relatively thick...but I'm sure they still do slow down the upward acceleration of parcels through this layer, however, when it's hot and humid or when you have steep lapse rates these should be enough to overcome that. I wanted to use this for my senior thesis but I did not have enough time but my thinking is that the biggest culprit for us (outside of weaker lapse rates) is lack of stronger dynamical support and large-scale forcing (though these tend to be greater in NNE which is why like northern ME does very well for severe (IMO). But down this way we often see thunderstorms die and it gets blamed on sea-breeze...I don't necessarily agree with that. I think what happens is the storms start to outrun the better forcing/dynamics which gives the aided boost into keeping convection deep. Otherwise, convection is just relaying on large surface CAPE (needed to initiate the convection) and meh mixed-layer CAPE (which helps the storms build in the vertical and when there is enough we get the pockets of severe). But when you're only relying on instability and weak forcing/shear the instability is enough to build it and the lack of the latter prevents it from doing much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Full sun and muggy here let the cooking begin. I’ll start the bidding at 1 EF0 and a large hail report from N Andover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Full sun and muggy here let the cooking begin. I’ll start the bidding at 1 EF0 and a large hail report from N Andover I'll give you a 50mph gust and rotten limbs down in Billerica 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: Going to be a more widespread outbreak today, Lot of debris clouds right now, Would like to see the sun to destabilize more though. Not a cloud here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, kdxken said: Not a cloud here Sun just broke out here after a few raindrops that didn't even dot the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Full sun is certainly good but honestly in a situation where you have poor lapse rates there isn't a whole heck of a lot of difference between full sun and mostly sun...I mean if the difference is like 3-4F in temperature then yeah there is a big difference but when you have poor lapse rates your ceiling about how unstable you can become is very limited. A temp difference of 1-2F can also be a difference maker in CAPE but regardless we're only looking at 1000-1500 J of MLCAPE today...maybe 2000 where any dewpoint pooling occurrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Full sun is certainly good but honestly in a situation where you have poor lapse rates there isn't a whole heck of a lot of difference between full sun and mostly sun...I mean if the difference is like 3-4F in temperature then yeah there is a big difference but when you have poor lapse rates your ceiling about how unstable you can become is very limited. A temp difference of 1-2F can also be a difference maker in CAPE but regardless we're only looking at 1000-1500 J of MLCAPE today...maybe 2000 where any dewpoint pooling occurrs. How about partly sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: How about partly sun? I meant to say that instead of mostly haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 small cells popping already. Decent one up by Greenfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 MCD watch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: MCD watch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: MCD watch possible. Only 40% chance though which I thought was kinda surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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