weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 If this doesn't pan out then I am banning myself. It is now almost August and it's been CRAP. It's been absolute crap and I don't want to hear any arguments stating otherwise. This summer is pure trash and it needs to be recognized as so. This is not an appropriate summer and this better never, ever happen again. It's just been pathetic. Anyways let's try again Wednesday and/or Thursday. Right now, Thursday perhaps may have the better potential. This is when stronger forcing associated with a shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border digs towards the Northeast. This feature looks to be associated with a modest belt of 30-40 knots of shear at 500mb. This isn't overly impressive, however, with over 30 knots of shear at 700mb this should be enough to generate enough bulk shear for organized convective potential. At the surface, strong moisture pooling ahead of an approaching cold front should crank dewpoints well into the 70's. While mid-level lapse rates will be fairly poor (OF COURSE) 70's dews combined with surface temperatures into the 80's should contribute to enough instability (when combined with the shear) to warrant organized line segments with the potential to embedded areas of damaging winds and perhaps a few wet microbursts. We're nearing turn 3 and soon heading towards turn 4. Ridiculous 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 severe threads six days out always are a good call take six of these 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: severe threads six days out always are a good call take six of these It’s go big or go home time for wiz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Warnings have been hoisted well in advance. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Hahahahaha..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 And/or.....that’s always good for verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Warnings have been hoisted well in advance. O say does that bun-spangled banner yet wave O'er the land of the free and the home of the ween 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Wiz wishes he were in ND right now instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Completely ignoring Monday's marginal risk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 gfs looks great next Thursday, lock that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 On 7/18/2020 at 9:57 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Completely ignoring Monday's marginal risk? I was wondering the same thing. Any chance for a couple decent cells tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 On 7/18/2020 at 9:57 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Completely ignoring Monday's marginal risk? SE MA favored so it has to be fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 cravings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 BOX It looks like the more active of the two days appears to be on Thursday, as a fairly strong trough in prevailing quasi-zonal flow moves across the Great Lakes into northwest NY. This will spread a cold front across much of New England, with at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front. The better upper support mostly passes to our north. However noted the still fairly strong unidirectional wind fields with related speed shear contributing to effective bulk shear values around 40 kt, with LI`s - 4 to -7C and most-unstable CAPEs ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/kg. A few stronger storms certainly possible and severe is not out of the question given the above favorable shear-instability parameter space. Potential for localized torrential downpours as well, but fairly fast storm motions could limit the duration of torrential rain. There are the mesoscale details that need to be narrowed down a bit more, but from a synoptic standpoint Thursday will need to be watched. Leftover thunder should move off the coast of SE MA before midnight on Thursday night, with cooler and increasingly drier air filtering in by early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 On 7/18/2020 at 9:57 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Completely ignoring Monday's marginal risk? Puff puff pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Thursday has a pretty good look for a few wet microbursts. Best potential though may be east of the CT River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 GFS looks rather solid for Thursday. That's a pretty potent s/w digging in with ample shear and perhaps moderate instability. Might be an early start to the show too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Can't sleep on Wednesday either...mainly western sections. In fact, there could be potential for a few warm front spinners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS looks rather solid for Thursday. That's a pretty potent s/w digging in with ample shear and perhaps moderate instability. Might be an early start to the show too. DC ok for Cole v Scherzer Thursday night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 minute ago, scoob40 said: DC ok for Cole v Scherzer Thursday night ? Doesn't look very promising right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Can't sleep on Wednesday either...mainly western sections. In fact, there could be potential for a few warm front spinners. Hi Wiz I’m here with my standard “will there be an EML present either day?” question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hi Wiz I’m here with my standard “will there be an EML present either day?” question unfortunately not...though there could be some "steeper" lapse rates around Thursday (6-6.5 C/KM) which isn't terrible for around here...also with dews again near mid 70's that would compensate a bit for weaker lapse rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 how rare are EML events here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: how rare are EML events here? fairly rare. It's actually not *as* rare to get EML advection here, however, to time EML advection say with a cold front approaching is what is rare...It's just so difficult to do. Prior to 5/15/18 the last real EML event I think we had was June 1, 2011. I can't think of anything in between those two...perhaps some puesdo-EML events. (My memory with this stuff isn't as good as it used to be ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Glad we don’t live near Dendy. 60 all day Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: fairly rare. It's actually not *as* rare to get EML advection here, however, to time EML advection say with a cold front approaching is what is rare...It's just so difficult to do. Prior to 5/15/18 the last real EML event I think we had was June 1, 2011. I can't think of anything in between those two...perhaps some puesdo-EML events. (My memory with this stuff isn't as good as it used to be ) Thanks. More questions, not necessarily only aimed at weatherwiz: In my (limited) understanding, EML air-masses originate from the SW USA and find their way here along a ridge with westerly winds usually? And they're characterized by dry midlevels and steep midlevel lapse rates? If this is true, and transport is usually due to a midsummer 594-ish mb ridge, I'm wondering why these events aren't that common. It seems like we get ridges like that a couple times every summer, and we see frontal passages maybe every 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Keep an eye on er. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 On 7/19/2020 at 5:31 PM, NECT said: I was wondering the same thing. Any chance for a couple decent cells tomorrow? Nevermind. This is why I should stick to reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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