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Severe Wx Threat July 13


Damage In Tolland
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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good clearing punching into ORH now....most of SNE should be in the sun soon.

RAP/HRRR do show some action for eastern areas this afternoon so we'll see.

it's one of those time-dilation mornings where the clearing line is racing NE on sat vis looping but is always SW of you in person... 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR looks very meh. High and dry to the west of NEMA 

Most action will be E of ORH today I think. Some stuff could pop overhead in ORH county and E CT though....but the bulk should be east.

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drought Stein is back 

Never had an empty Stein. Hey its 5 o'clock somewhere.  Another beautiful swimming day. Went to the lake for a long swim, just perfect water temp , dove down about 12 feet and was very cold down there. Loving summer as always 

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Looks like drier air works in aloft too (outside of eastern sections). With dewpoints generally in the mid 60's and poor lapse rates we can only realize so much instability today. Coastal southeast ME through southern NH, and northeast MA will be the prime spot today. Can't rule out stronger cells getting a decent mid-level meso which could perhaps lead to the risk for small hail 

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea Loconto said the severe with the dying TS was coming too. He will learn SNE climo soon

Ha, he doesn't have the terrain any more to help get stuff fired.  I'm sure it's a learning curve with the maritime influence too.  Probably a lot of fun learning a new CWA too.

We've been having some thunder up this way this morning.

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Well the NWS issued a special weather statement for central and eastern MA so we will see:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1132 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 CTZ004-MAZ004>007-012>019-026-RIZ001>004-131800- Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA- Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA- Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA- Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA- Eastern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI- Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI- Including the cities of Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, and West Warwick 1132 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin to develop early this afternoon and move eastward into the late afternoon into early this evening. An approximate timeline for thunderstorms is between 2 and 8 PM. A few storms may become strong to locally severe and become capable of producing damaging straight- line winds. In addition, torrential rainfall in association with the thunderstorms may lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding. This may also result in difficult travel during this afternoon`s commute. Remain aware of rapidly changing weather conditions this afternoon into early tonight. Stay tuned to local TV and media outlets later statements and possible warnings, and be prepared to take necessary precautions if warnings are issued for your area. $$ Loconto/Chai

 

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We have tall turrets punching the altostratus level here.... 

I'm a fan of early CU behavior/morphology ... and typically when I've seen that the day performs reasonably well so we'll see.  Nice crispy edges with corpuscular bubblet structures... so perhaps the ml lapse rates are better, or CAPE is over performing give or take

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