Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Wiz must have spent another day in the hot tub with his jacket and hood on . Big potential in SNE tomorrow And it`s in the afternoon when a severe/hydro threat should start to evolve and escalate, as improving wind fields leading to bulk shear values rising to 35-40 kt, moderate convective instability and forcing with the stronger upper disturbance should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms along the frontal boundary. This is indicated by the majority of the convective-allowing model members comprising the HREF. While individual models vary on the timing, it appears that thunderstorms may start to percolate as soon as 1 PM, but the better chances lie after 2-3 PM, with greater numbers of storms then progressing eastward towards the coast into the evening rush hour. The largest uncertainties to the forecast hinge on the location of the frontal zone, how quickly it progresses eastward, and while early-day rains don`t look to be as widespread as the GFS paints it to be, the extent to which the airmass can destabilize in the wake of the early showers is a question mark. Exactly where the SW-NE oriented front sets up is uncertain, but it appears to align itself somewhere from I-84 to I-495/I-93 corridor or just west of that line. In some of the NAM-based guidance, a weak low/mesolow ripples along the front as storms begin to fire. If that materializes it would serve to slow the front down further, but also back surface to low-level winds slightly leading to somewhat longer lower-level hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Nice have the 3k Nam on board . Probably a spin or two pike region to 84 On the severe-storm potential, much of Southern New England is highlighted in a Marginal Risk for severe. Mid-level lapse rates look fairly weak and is a limitation. Progged CAPEs are on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg, with bulk shear around 35-40 kt. SPC`s SREF Craven-Brooks severe index parameter highlighting solid probabilities for values at or over 10,000 units, which can favor strong/severe storms. The 12z HREF continues to show some 2-5 km Updraft Helicity swaths as well, though mainly across central and eastern MA. Though the primary severe threat would be from strong to locally damaging straight line winds, if a weak surface wave low can lead to locally backed surface winds it could yield a very low-prob tornado risk but the threat is conditioned upon that occurring. The NAM-3 km hints at this more than other models with 0-1 km shear of 20 kt/0-1 km SRH 100-150 units in parts of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Worth a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Looks like a marginal risk at best. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Looks like a marginal risk at best. Yeah, I would like to see the 00z HREF start honking more if there is any hope at an upgrade. Right now looking more like isolated severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Just a matter of how quickly the morning clouds/crap clears out and how much instability we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Well maybe Loconto went wild LWW? Legro says nada . It’s SNE , so he’s probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well maybe Loconto went wild LWW? Legro says nada . It’s SNE , so he’s probably right A marginally dangerous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well maybe Loconto went wild LWW? Legro says nada . It’s SNE , so he’s probably right I wouldn't say that AFD went wild, but it describes a model that went wild. I'm just not all in on a NAM 3 km solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I wouldn't say that AFD went wild, but it describes a model that went wild. I'm just not all in on a NAM 3 km solution. Have another stout and look again............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Looks stormy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 A few garden variety storms would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 as long as i don't need to water. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2020 Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 HREF got a bit wilder overnight , so Legro May be a little wild. But until we see Wiz post, this threat is on thin ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 All out east if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2020 Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 Threat is mainly west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 These threats were we hope for clearing never seem to amount too much but rain. Maybe it'll be different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Threat is mainly west of 95 Well east of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Still cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 This looked a bit better Thursday or Friday. We really just can't buy anything. Today seems to favor eastern areas...southern ME, NH, and eastern MA. Looks like that's where the better overlap of CAPE/shear will exist and perhaps some better convergence. So perhaps some damaging wind gusts out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This looked a bit better Thursday or Friday. We really just can't buy anything. Today seems to favor eastern areas...southern ME, NH, and eastern MA. Looks like that's where the better overlap of CAPE/shear will exist and perhaps some better convergence. So perhaps some damaging wind gusts out that way. I was on board with this until about an hour ago. Current radar and sunny morning make me think central and west could have a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: I was on board with this until about an hour ago. Current radar and sunny morning make me think central and west could have a decent shot. Only issue with western areas is shear looks to decrease. Also looks like there could be a decent instability gradient across eastern areas and sometimes those areas can be favorable locations. Looks like the HRRR wants to favor eastern sections with more isolated activity further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 We overcast. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 I like today’s severe threat for eastern half. Clouds are breaking up. All meso guidance still clearly on board. The show is in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 I’d like to meh my way to severe today but I don’t think it’s going to happen. No meteorological reasoning other than the thick overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: We overcast. Next. Pretty good clearing punching into ORH now....most of SNE should be in the sun soon. RAP/HRRR do show some action for eastern areas this afternoon so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Two schools ... sort of offset optimism: in one regard the ML lapse-rates I don't "think" are very good today? They really can't be because the primary frontal slope's now E of the coast by a hair and that means that the antecedent thermal dynamic profile ( pre frontal..) is now mid tropospheric/dispersive above the boundary, and that should be a CIN factor... That said, there could also be intervening layers that offer some instability via evaporative cooling from early turret decay and then sequencing bubbling up ... in other words, the post frontal evironment isn't very convincing 'scrubbing' the air mass, either. in the other regard, ...our climo is usually requiring forced ascent to overcome what is typically poorer SB CAPE to ml d(t) ...which seems to really be the magic ratio for me/ years of observation... Lot of factors contribute, but >50% of the day's success in the Plains is almost always llv CAPE up under a cool/cooling mid level temperature... One overcoming factor though is fluid mechanical lift.. perhaps some ratio of decreasing ML lapse rates/mitigation is then in turn offset by diffluence aloft. You can see there's the latter on early satellite, with cirrus streaks kiting right along over the top of a mid level showers that are not exactly slowly moving through in their own rights... all over a surface that's almost calm... so there's tilting/pulling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty good clearing punching into ORH now....most of SNE should be in the sun soon. RAP/HRRR do show some action for eastern areas this afternoon so we'll see. Blue sky dominates here, helluva muggy. Early swim helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty good clearing punching into ORH now....most of SNE should be in the sun soon. RAP/HRRR do show some action for eastern areas this afternoon so we'll see. Really inconsistent on location looking on HRRR. Probably will be able to see boundary well on mesonet later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now