CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The mets in the New England forum brought it up the other day, but they think the long term +NAO is being driven by the big -AMO ice bath in the North Atlantic positively feeding back into the positive NAO and making it sustain itself Not sure that is whats driving it, but I suppose Its presence may have some influence in maintaining it. The phase of NAO domain is notoriously difficult to predict with any significant lead time, and the "drivers" likely involve a complex set of interactions. The one thing we can state with certainty is that the positive phase has been dominant during the winter now for a significant period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure that is whats driving it, but I suppose Its presence may have some influence in maintaining it. The phase of NAO domain is notoriously difficult to predict with any significant lead time, and the "drivers: likely involve a complex set of interactions. The one thing we can state with certainty is that the positive phase has been dominant during the winter now for a significant period. Correct and the Arctic sea ice loss seems to have enhanced the lack of -AO/-NAO blocking if anything. Some had theorized several years ago that it would enhance high latitude blocking, which it done anything but 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, mappy said: i dunno man, hard to compare to Mersky's shitty drive-by posts and Phin being Phin. Ha I wasn't even considering Phin in that post. We all mess around and engage in good natured trolling. Helps keep the sanity. Some do overreact to the benign stuff though. Mersky is another story. Pure shit poster. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ha I wasn't even considering Phin in that post. We all mess around and engage in good natured trolling. Helps keep the sanity. Some do overreact to the benign stuff though. Mersky is another story. Pure shit poster. Mersky just follows snowman19 around and leaves him weenie emots. eventually he will either add something worth a damn, or find himself only posting up north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Mersky just follows snowman19 around and leaves him weenie emots. eventually he will either add something worth a damn, or find himself only posting up north For the most part yes. I know you saw his attempt to troll psu yesterday morning, as it was removed. It was quite elaborate for him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 8 hours ago, CAPE said: For the most part yes. I know you saw his attempt to troll psu yesterday morning, as it was removed. It was quite elaborate for him. I’m not sure he realized my shot across his bow the other day was simply his own post to me from last December copied word for word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 You all don’t have enough real data to actually talk about clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You all don’t have enough real data to actually talk about clearly Its a bit of a struggle this early for sure. Shit posters fill in the dead time though, so we good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 Summary of ENSO update as of yesterday(8/10)... Quote ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical atmospheric circulation is consistent with ENSO-neutral. ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance). Looks like cold neutral/borderline weak Nina is most likely for winter at this juncture. Could work out ok. We can do median/mean snowfall with some help elsewhere. Anyone expecting KUs will ofc be checking in to the panic room luxury resort fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Mersky said: You guys trying to resurrect The Three Stooges?? You suck at trolling. Maybe give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 22 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I think DC has a very good chance to get 200 to maybe as much as 300% of last years snowfall this year! I know I’m a weenie optimist... Hey: Philly could get 300% of last years total and still end up with less than an inch for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 13 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Careful! That IS a bold prediction! Not so sure it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: You all don’t have enough real data to actually talk about clearly Do we ever this time of year? But we can be fairly confident there won’t be a nino. And the sad fact is in the last 25 non nino years only 2 were above avg snowfall in DC. So simply using that we only have an 8% chance of a “snowy” winter. And if you remove the 2 extreme outlier non nino years (95/96 & 2013/14) the avg snowfall in the other 23 years is only 8.6”. So purely from a climo probabilities standpoint the odds say to expect about that. And there is currently nothing that would scream to throw those probabilities out. All that said pure probabilities aren’t a sound forecast because outliers are a very real thing. Maybe we get another 2014. But the odds aren’t good and att there is nothing that would hint that’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The Australian BOM has issued a La Niña watch: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/ Here is the summary: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Australian BOM has issued a La Niña watch: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/ Here is the summary: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Old news. CPC/NCEP issued the watch a month or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 14 hours ago, Mersky said: You guys trying to resurrect The Three Stooges?? Nope, I'm not nearly that funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 18 hours ago, CAPE said: Summary of ENSO update as of yesterday(8/10)... Looks like cold neutral/borderline weak Nina is most likely for winter at this juncture. Could work out ok. We can do median/mean snowfall with some help elsewhere. Anyone expecting KUs will ofc be checking in to the panic room luxury resort fairly quickly. Was there a big difference in snowfall and temperature between weak La Niña winters and cold-neutral winters? I never actually looked into that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Was there a big difference in snowfall and temperature between weak La Niña winters and cold-neutral winters? I never actually looked into that Probably varies, but in general the DC area doesn't do any better than average with snowfall in either case. See PSU's post on the previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably varies, but in general the DC area doesn't do any better than average with snowfall in either case. See PSU's post on the previous page. I see his post now. Just looked very quickly at NYC winters for the last 41 years, with cold-neutral vs weak La Niña (1979-present) and there doesn’t seem to be a big difference wrt temp and snowfall either. 95-96 and 10-11 being weak La Niña extremes of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 12-13 and 13-14 were cold neutrals or weak Ninas. Not sure if the Nina threshold. Regardless, there are other factors. Last year was almost a carbon copy of the 2014-2015 Enso conditions. Just a little bit different though in the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Is the GFS gonna be upgraded? If so, when? I hope so because if last winter is an indication it can’t be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 16 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is the GFS gonna be upgraded? If so, when? I hope so because if last winter is an indication it can’t be trusted. lol you are looking at it. The FV3 is the upgrade and it became operational last year. The corresponding GEFS upgrade is now experimental- the GEFS Para available on TT. I made a couple posts on the GEFS upgrade in the disco thread a few days ago. The 0z run goes out to hr 840! I know you like that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. You mean November II. We now have November, November II, November III, November IV, November V and November VI around here and then May 181 days of November, if you will... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 3 hours ago, frd said: Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new. Everything correlates to a warm [insert winter month here] anymore in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Everything correlates to a warm [insert winter month here] anymore in these parts. Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event. Wasn’t November 2019 below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: Wasn’t November 2019 below normal? Conceptually and demonstrably a cold month in the NNE. Still, being out side of even the meteorological defined winter, it would have to be a below normal late fall month. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 11 hours ago, CAPE said: lol you are looking at it. The FV3 is the upgrade and it became operational last year. The corresponding GEFS upgrade is now experimental- the GEFS Para available on TT. I made a couple posts on the GEFS upgrade in the disco thread a few days ago. The 0z run goes out to hr 840! I know you like that feature. When it’s January 15 and we’re analyzing the 800h Gefs for a possible March save... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When it’s January 15 and we’re analyzing the 800h Gefs for a possible March save.. Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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