snowman19 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. The thing that is most surprising IMO is the QBO. Ever since the super El Niño, its behavior has been completely erratic. Just a few months ago it appeared to be going into its negative phase, now it looks like it’s going back into a positive again. That Nino event threw something off big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 ^Wheres Mersky? Obligatory reaction required here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The thing that is most surprising IMO is the QBO. Ever since the super El Niño, its behavior has been completely erratic. Just a few months it appeared to be going into its negative phase, now it looks like it’s going back into a positive again. That Nino event threw something off big time Just to add, that El Niño falls into the larger global warming picture. It shows we still have a lot to learn about weather overall and how it’s evolving now. If you look at the theories that *should* have resulted in colder winters; solar cycle, Siberian snowcover, sea ice loss, soil moisture, etc., they are just not working at all the last several winters, the question is why.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter. What is the rationale for this? A weak Nina? The reality is this- climo mean/median for the coastal plain of the MA, and even the Piedmont in most years, clearly shows that December is more of a fall month, and it simply doesn't snow much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 All MA weenies seem to pine for/ romanticize the idea of snowy Decembers. Sorry. You want that? Drive to the micro climate mountain regions, or head to NE. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 46 minutes ago, Mersky said: I have made my thoughts known. Looks like a pretty warm, snowless winter. Probably not as bad as last year but I don’t think it could be much worse. Most likely snowman19 will be the only person posting this winter reminding us of how warm and snowless the winter is You are really obsessed with me. Wow just wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Are you applying to be a “helper” when The Panic Room reopens for reapin’ season? Given how bad things are looking... are you currently accepting applications? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 This expected warmth and expectation of a snow less winter may be just what snow lovers want. After all, it seems when we expect the worst (or the best) the exact opposite occurs. In any case, our plows and blowers are always ready for whatever may come this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. DC climate has shifted. It’s somewhere between RIC and RDU now. You are probably more like a closer-in Baltimore suburb. Time to calibrate expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Just looked at the CFS and Cansips on the TT site for giggles. Both seem to show positive height anomalies over us for all of winter. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Are you applying to be a “helper” when The Panic Room reopens for reapin’ season? Yeah @CAPE seriously...it's like you love putting salt in the wound, lol I'm wondering...do you not like snow, or do you love to troll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah @CAPE seriously...it's like you love putting salt in the wound, lol I'm wondering...do you not like snow, or do you love to troll? I am simply in touch with reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. Hey look, if it's gonna be true, at least we have plenty of time to grieve the bad winter before it actually gets here. Hopefully by then we can be numb to it. But really, I don't know if the lowest of low expectations would make the potential suckage any less depressing. It's like losing something in life you once enjoyed--you expect it isn't coming, but you still miss it all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am simply in touch with reality. There's a difference between being in touch with reality than acting practically giddy when things don't turn out well. That's why I'm wondering if you enjoyed snow in the first place. I don't think anybody's expectations are high by any means right now...so what's the point in pouring the salt in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: There's a difference between being in touch with reality than being practically giddy when things don't turn out well. That's why I'm wondering if you enjoyed snow in the first place. Do you ever pay attention here? Get a grip dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Just to add, that El Niño falls into the larger global warming picture. It shows we still have a lot to learn about weather overall and how it’s evolving now. If you look at the theories that *should* have resulted in colder winters; solar cycle, Siberian snowcover, sea ice loss, soil moisture, etc., they are just not working at all the last several winters, the question is why.... I was just wondering the same thing earlier today...Why does it feel like the Super Niño just flat-out broke things? Nothing has behaved right since! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Do you ever pay attention here? Get a grip dude. Well, am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Peaking in from the SE forum and I see that we are having a forum meltdown 3.67 months before the start of met winter. The sad thing is its not really irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Well, am I wrong? You seem a little hysterical. You don't seem to be able to make a distinction between having a little fun with the situation, and serious discussion/speculation of the data we have in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: You seem a little hysterical. You don't seem to be able to make a distinction between having a little fun with the situation, and serious discussion/speculation of the data we have in front of us. Ohhh I see it alright....but as I said, it's bad enough to have the bad data in front of us. I don't get how poking fun of it and pretending to enjoy things going bad even more ain't salt in the wound. We could be looking at the prospect of losing something in life we've all enjoyed (or at least seeing even less of it than before). So yeah, maybe I am a little reactive to it--but it sucks, plain and simple--no matter how low you set your expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously. Love the thread and the work though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously. Love the thread and the work though. Is that always true, though? Still think that depends on the larger factors like ENSO and NAO and such. What bothers me is...if this becomes a new reality, we may have to rely on even MORE flukes than before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Is that always true, though? Still think that depends on the larger factors like ENSO and NAO and such. What bothers me is...if this becomes a new reality, we may have to rely on even MORE flukes than before!It’s just casual analysis, tbh I don’t know what I’m talking about. I tried to word it carefully... we obviously want certain conditions to happen but I don’t think we’ve ever had a lock on it three months out. We don’t usually have a lock on it two weeks out. Smarter people then me can look at the super long range models and see good signs but IMO it’s not worth worrying about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Bastardi hinted at favoring a northern Plains winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 We have the WDI on our side for NAO help. After 10 years it's got to break our way eventually right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: We have the WDI on our side for NAO help. After 10 years it's got to break our way eventually right?? After last year I kinda gave up on that...lol I guess a tiny piece of me hopes the solar min will save something...but that's about the last "WDI" thing for me. As somebody said, we hit bottom solar earlier this year, and from here it only goes back up...so that...combined with the fact that swe saw no apparent positive effect from the low solar last year, I'd imagine this winter would be the last chance to see it. If we don't, then that "effect" might be broken like everything else seems to be, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Bastardi hinted at favoring a northern Plains winter. That’s just because it’s August. Come October, he will be hyping 95-96 as his #1 main analog, 10-11 as his #2 analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Bastardi hinted at favoring a northern Plains winter. Isn't that just Nina climatology? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Mersky said: I have made my thoughts known. Looks like a pretty warm, snowless winter. Probably not as bad as last year but I don’t think it could be much worse. Most likely snowman19 will be the only person posting this winter reminding us of how warm and snowless the winter is Sir you have zero idea where the pattern is headed. Nothing personal but it’s just a fact. You think you do but in reality no one does. Take it ten days at time. Why not relax and just take it one period at a time and not be so gloom and doom all the time?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now