Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Snow for Christmas would be amazing this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 With how 2020 has gone I would almost expect this winter to actually pull a rabbit out of the hat. WDI is off the charts for the year in general. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere Usually they do down well, but the timing can be a bit variable and the QBO as a whole has been a little funky the last 4 years for whatever reason (climate or other). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps) Yeah, GEFS surface temps are warm for December but the 500mb pattern looks halfway decent for most of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, GEFS surface temps are warm for December but the 500mb pattern looks halfway decent for most of it? Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east. The Scandinavian-Greenland ridge pattern this fall and progged going forward is nice. Maybe we can hope for some occasional NAO help? If we can couple it with transient Pac ridging we could get some windows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities. NAM state still looks uneventful. Meanwhile World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc Today's 46-day ECMWF shows a +4-5°C anomaly for the full month of December in the north-central USA (vs 20-year climatology). At face value that would rival the warmest Decembers on record in Minnesota, such as 2015 and 1997 - both super El Niño winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 My Summer N. Atlantic SST = Winter NAO index, is 9-1-4 in the last 14 years. It was more than 1.5SD off last Winter, but the average SD is 0.55. It comes in at -0.15 for the Winter, about Neutral. (Warm upper box is negative, Cold lower box is negative). I would say that's -0.10 even. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: NAM state still looks uneventful. Meanwhile World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc Today's 46-day ECMWF shows a +4-5°C anomaly for the full month of December in the north-central USA (vs 20-year climatology). At face value that would rival the warmest Decembers on record in Minnesota, such as 2015 and 1997 - both super El Niño winters That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: My Summer N. Atlantic SST = Winter NAO index, is 9-1-4 in the last 14 years. It was more than 1.5SD off last Winter, but the average SD is 0.55. It comes in at -0.15 for the Winter, about Neutral. (Warm upper box is negative, Cold lower box is negative). I would say that's -0.10 even. So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 I would predict slightly neutral-positive. Better than the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 4 hours ago, frd said: NAM state still looks uneventful. Meanwhile World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc Today's 46-day ECMWF shows a +4-5°C anomaly for the full month of December in the north-central USA (vs 20-year climatology). At face value that would rival the warmest Decembers on record in Minnesota, such as 2015 and 1997 - both super El Niño winters @frd Just to add to your post, evidence is certainly mounting for a +NAM this winter, here is the thread Griteater made today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Our last greatest snowstorm is Nov 15, 2018, 5.4". It's a long term cycle in the Pacific, I observe we are like 155-160 degrees at it. It would be interesting to see if we ever go back to Pacific trough if the Arctic ice melt rate accelerates toward or after the peak of the theoretical cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Capital Weather Gang going with slightly below normal snowfall. Hopefully the link isn't paywalled. Reagan National Airport (DCA): 10 to 14 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11-inch median) Dulles International Airport (IAD): 14 to 18 inches (compared with a 22.0-inch average, 16 inch-median) Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport (BWI): 14 to 18 inches (compared with a 20.1-inch average, 15-inch median) Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery counties: 12 to 20 inches Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 10 to 16 inches DEC +3 JAN +1-2 FEB +1-2 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/washington-dc-winter-outlook-2020-21/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Capital Weather Gang going with normal to slightly below normal snowfall. Hopefully the link isn't paywalled. Reagan National Airport (DCA): 10 to 14 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11-inch median) Dulles International Airport (IAD): 14 to 18 inches (compared with a 22.0-inch average, 16 inch-median) Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport (BWI): 14 to 18 inches (compared with a 20.1-inch average, 15-inch median) Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery counties: 12 to 20 inches Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 10 to 16 inches DEC +3 JAN +1-2 FEB +1-2 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/washington-dc-winter-outlook-2020-21/ Surprised they went with that snowfall prediction. Would speculate lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 They are playing it conservative, it's really hard to have 2 shut outs in a row. Would be really interesting if the NAO goes like +2.00 this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Last year was a major bust, there have been 3-4 of them (major busts) in the last 50-70 years. fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: They are playing it conservative, it's really hard to have 2 shut outs in a row. Would be really interesting if the NAO goes like +2.00 this Winter. NAO, "hold my beer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 From HM earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: From HM earlier: Interesting read. I can't find it at the moment, but I believe HM tweeted earlier in the Fall about how smoke plumes tend to increase the stratospheric temperature gradient, and that, in turn, would lead to a stronger PV and +NAM state. The lack of heat flux in the polar stratosphere that has been observed this season would also likely contribute to that, although not sure of/if there's a relation between that and aerosols from the western US fires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 23 hours ago, snowman19 said: From HM earlier: Wish it wasn't behind a paywall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 This doesn’t look horrible. Usually CPC is just an ENSO copy-paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 JB2 forecast FWIW https://www.justinweather.com/2020/11/19/winter-outlook-2021-i-am-more-bullish-on-snow-for-part-of-it/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Justin weather has me just in inside the 24-36” line...ok why not. I’d take half that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: Justin weather has me just in inside the 24-36” line...ok why not. I’d take half that. lol he is so awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 lol he is so awful.Hey now, #FITF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: lol he is so awful. We’ve got “extreme weather bullseye” working in our favor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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