CAPE Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW. Who knows man. It will probably be a awful winter but when nobody goes cold and snow ....there is bound to be a surprise. We don't even need a cold winter. Just some luck when it is cold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 52 minutes ago, Ji said: Who knows man. It will probably be a awful winter but when nobody goes cold and snow ....there is bound to be a surprise. We don't even need a cold winter. Just some luck when it is cold Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW. Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin. Agreed. This is what Griteater was afraid of, that we would have a flat Aleutian ridge instead of a poleward one, he expected this to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 looks like there might be potential for a wintry threat during T-Giving week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Agreed. This is what Griteater was afraid of, that we would have a flat Aleutian ridge instead of a poleward one, he expected this to happen Doubt that too many 672 hour ensemble means showing anything that doesn’t look mostly zonal. To see any ridging at all is noteworthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin. That pattern in Jan-Mar would be pretty nice. Early December would be dicey for cold air, but possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 nice look at 384 on the 12z GFS near the NAO region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Rockin' February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 When you’re talking strat warming in November it usually doesn’t go well LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When you’re talking strat warming in November it usually doesn’t go well LOL Lol We’re still waiting for the one that was supposed to happen last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Lol We’re still waiting for the one that was supposed to happen last winter Or was that two winters ago? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Rockin' February Man, does SSW even exist in the winter anymore? Lol I heard the talk the loudest in the 18/19 winter yet it either never materialized or didn't do jack diddly squat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture. It’s all bad signs so what the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s all bad signs so what the hell? Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due! I dunno about the luck but we do dumb pretty good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I have to wonder if we can dig a NE trough in here this Winter (like 12-13, 13-14) if we have this kind of rainfall pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man, does SSW even exist in the winter anymore? Lol I heard the talk the loudest in the 18/19 winter yet it either never materialized or didn't do jack diddly squat! Going to be tough with La Nina dominating many parts of pattern right now. QBO is unfavorable too, I think. (Something to watch is Nov-Dec '18 and '19 had the coldest Stratosphere ever for that time of the year going back to 1948. Should be interesting to see if '20 does it. And maybe '21 too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I have to wonder if we can dig a NE trough in here this Winter (like 12-13, 13-14) if we have this kind of rainfall pattern setting up. I keep trying to convince myself that atmospheric memory is a thing and with 70" of rain so far in Southern Maryland this year that the pattern HAS to continue through winter and at least give us a couple snows. I mean, it can't just flip to drought or be 35F and heavy rain for all of DJF....right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I would think it would be odd for every storm to be a warm front during the Winter. But that is what the climate indicators are suggesting. No one thought it would be +NAO in the Winter for 34 straight months, so who knows... The La Nina looks uniform, which could hold that 35 and rain pattern through the Winter. (I already know it's going to be a warm March and April.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Our best hope this Winter is -EPO. It will snow during -EPO (<5") 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2020 Author Share Posted November 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Our best hope this Winter is -EPO. It will snow during -EPO (<5") I strongly agree with this. Every so often you say something that makes sense. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Interesting, but I think Ben has his MJO phases a bit mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 this would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Winter forecast. I used analogs and pattern recognition. Factors include ENSO, QBO, PDO, AMO, AAM, Atl SST, soil moisture, and trends. December I expect the predominant pattern to take on a configuration that resembles... January as the PV reaches its Max and the jet stream settles into its dominant winter configuration I could see things evolve to Finally in February as the same old regulars (we all know who) tell us everyday how awful it is as if we don’t know I think the pattern might transition to For anyone who makes it to March expect 2 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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