uncle W Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the info...love your work. But keep in mind all 4 of those years you cite were pretty sucky for snow here. 67 was ok but not really compared to the period it was in. The other 3 were all below normal and frustrating as we missed almost every storm just to our northeast. Nina’s are a lot less hostile in NYC than our area. You can't beat Dec 66 for a white Christmas...you did better than we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I don't have a way to visualize it overall, but the Octobers that see unusually far South snowfall in the West and Plains are actually pretty good for one-two cold storms pretty deep into the SE, even in La Ninas. This is an example off the top of my head - but I'd still bet against a lot of snow for the coastal NE/SE outside New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 some of the ice accumulation totals from this afternoon and still ongoing are crazy out in OK out of OUN: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0346 PM ICE STORM THOMAS 35.75N 98.75W 10/27/2020 CUSTER OK BROADCAST MEDIA 0.6 INCHES WEST OF THOMAS. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 425 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 3 SE NICHOLS HILLS 35.52N 97.50W 10/27/2020 OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/2 INCH. ALSO, EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 428 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 4 SSE GEARY 35.57N 98.29W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK STORM CHASER RADIAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 0.8 INCHES. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0257 PM ICE STORM 8 W EL RENO 35.53N 98.10W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK PUBLIC 0.8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED ICE ON TREE BRANCHES. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, uncle W said: You can't beat Dec 66 for a white Christmas...you did better than we did. I was thinking 65 which was a weak Nina. Why do you cite 67? That was an enso neutral winter during an extremely -NAO regime. Add in warming since and I doubt it’s a good comp to now. Hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Seems the MJO's Eastward progress has slowed, at least for the time being, with the latest AO forecast consolidating on a consensus move to + 4 SD, a very significant development. However, after this, a drastic move down is forecast to begin, possibly associated with the MJO moving into more conducive phases, along with changes in the Kara Sea region. ( possibly sea ice related ) These developments may promote a change later in November within the NAM. Possibly even a elongation of the PV later in the month. Even though the latest guidance forecasts a stronger PV, at least short - term. The recent incredible advance of NA snow cover might have played a role in the record cold out West. As snow cover in North America either stalls, or even decline during the next 2 weeks look for another increase mid November going into early December. Possibly combining with a negative AO and or -EPO change to bring much colder air onto the East later November and early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 BAMWx Winter outlook - I summarized the webinar this morning. One word, warm. Opposite last year, and really following Nina climo. Here are my notes : They feel the polar vortex takes up camp in the Eurasia / Siberia, if that happens then expect the warmest winter ever. They feel low sea supports a poor cryosphere and no cold air source for most of the United States. They stated a basin wide Nina supports a very warm winter. They mention the QBO missed the Easterly phase and the West phase is not conducive to a - AO. This favors a very warm winter. Last time we had a - NAO winter was 2011. Recent climate suggests it will not happen. Carbon release = arctic warming and seeing a strong PV already, from fire burn. They see no chance at a - NAO. A very warm winter again. Low chance of a SWWE. Only hope is that the PAC might induce PV stretching or elongation. They feel the MJO is active the next month or two. Best months for cold ( if there is any ) might be shoulder months of December or March due to the weaker PV as compared to very strong PV in Jan and Feb. MJO really favoring phase 5, but movement is expected , the standing wave might be changing. Have had the standing wave for over a month. Most models favor a cold Alaska and a warm US except the PAC NW. Models are really at a consensus for a warm winter, with little if any snowfall in the East. Lastly, they mention any cold air does that make it here will have very little staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, frd said: BAMWx Winter outlook - I summarized the webinar this morning. One word, warm. Opposite last year, and really following Nina climo. Here are my notes : They feel the polar vortex takes up camp in the Eurasia / Siberia, if that happens then expect the warmest winter ever. They feel low sea supports a poor cryosphere and no cold air source for most of the United States. They stated a basin wide Nina supports a very warm winter. They mention the QBO missed the Easterly phase and the West phase is not conducive to a - AO. This favors a very warm winter. Last time we had a - NAO winter was 2011. Recent climate suggests it will not happen. Carbon release = arctic warming and seeing a strong PV already, from fire burn. They see no chance at a - NAO. A very warm winter again. Low chance of a SWWE. Only hope is that the PAC might induce PV stretching or elongation. They feel the MJO is active the next month or two. Best months for cold ( if there is any ) might be shoulder months of December or March due to the weaker PV as compared to very strong PV in Jan and Feb. MJO really favoring phase 5, but movement is expected , the standing wave might be changing. Have had the standing wave for over a month. Most models favor a cold Alaska and a warm US except the PAC NW. Models are really at a consensus for a warm winter, with little if any snowfall in the East. Lastly, they mention any cold air does that make it here will have very little staying power. Damn See you for the 2021/2022 season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 BAMWX is known for having a warm bias IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: BAMWX is known for having a warm bias IIRC. Hopefully they don't have to reverse course like last year. But, I am hoping for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, frd said: Hopefully they don't have to reverse course like last year. But, I am hoping for that. Weren't they calling for a big winter last year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 I'll go with DT's ideas for the upcoming winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Can @WxWatcher007 just come in here and reap this winter already? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Weren't they calling for a big winter last year? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: BAMWX is known for having a warm bias IIRC. Not really. They predicted a solidly colder and snowier than normal winter for the east last year. They changed their forecast in mid-December when they saw it was a lost cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, frd said: BAMWx Winter outlook - I summarized the webinar this morning. One word, warm. Opposite last year, and really following Nina climo. Here are my notes : They feel the polar vortex takes up camp in the Eurasia / Siberia, if that happens then expect the warmest winter ever. They feel low sea supports a poor cryosphere and no cold air source for most of the United States. They stated a basin wide Nina supports a very warm winter. They mention the QBO missed the Easterly phase and the West phase is not conducive to a - AO. This favors a very warm winter. Last time we had a - NAO winter was 2011. Recent climate suggests it will not happen. Carbon release = arctic warming and seeing a strong PV already, from fire burn. They see no chance at a - NAO. A very warm winter again. Low chance of a SWWE. Only hope is that the PAC might induce PV stretching or elongation. They feel the MJO is active the next month or two. Best months for cold ( if there is any ) might be shoulder months of December or March due to the weaker PV as compared to very strong PV in Jan and Feb. MJO really favoring phase 5, but movement is expected , the standing wave might be changing. Have had the standing wave for over a month. Most models favor a cold Alaska and a warm US except the PAC NW. Models are really at a consensus for a warm winter, with little if any snowfall in the East. Lastly, they mention any cold air does that make it here will have very little staying power. Just took a look at it, what they are predicting is actually worse than last winter, if that’s even possible. Just wall to wall ugliness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just took a look at it, what they are predicting is actually worse than last winter, if that’s even possible. Just walk to wall ugliness Did you read what I have in the first line ? I did mention they feel the warmest winter ever is possible . < Here are my notes : They feel the polar vortex takes up camp in the Eurasia / Siberia, if that happens then expect the warmest winter ever. > Now if they are wrong and the PV weakens, or there is HL blocking , etc. They risk a rather substantial seasonal forecast bust , and then it becomes two years they have to revise. Massive amounts of evidence ( climate warming, analogs, persistence, Nina background, West Pac warm pool, + NAO persistence, etc. ) all point to warm winter in the Mid Atlantic and SE. , including large portions of the country. However, I am not sold yet on what transpires this winter. I still like late November and early December as an opportunity for cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, frd said: Did you read what I have in the first line ? I did mention they feel the warmest winter ever is possible . < Here are my notes : They feel the polar vortex takes up camp in the Eurasia / Siberia, if that happens then expect the warmest winter ever. > Now if they are wrong and the PV weakens, or there is HL blocking , etc. They risk a rather substantial seasonal forecast bust , and then it becomes two years they have to revise. Massive amounts of evidence ( climate warming, analogs, persistence, Nina background, West Pac warm pool, + NAO persistence, etc. ) all point to warm winter in the Mid Atlantic and SE. , including large portions of the country. However, I am not sold yet on what transpires this winter. I still like late November and early December as an opportunity for cold here. Yea, I saw that, it was a good synopsis. I’m just having a problem believing that it’s going to be THAT bad of a winter. IMO, I don’t think it’s likely, but I may be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 It's going to be a M winter. Where the M stands for mud. Yeah it will be cold and dry and every time there's precip it will be warm enough to be rain. That's Maryland winters for you. And if it's going to snow, it needs to be thundersnow. Imagine an all night snow storm with thunder and lightning. :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 14 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I was thinking 65 which was a weak Nina. Why do you cite 67? That was an enso neutral winter during an extremely -NAO regime. Add in warming since and I doubt it’s a good comp to now. Hope I’m wrong. 66-67 is a neutral negative but before the oni change a few years ago it was a weak la nina...QBO was similar to this year...blocking was good the first half...the warmest month was January and the ao/nao were both negative on average that month...it was a back loaded winter for us with no ao/nao blocking to speak of ... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... nao monthly numbers and lowest figure... 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 ao... 1966-67...-1.401 -0.576..1.180...1.967...-4.147...12/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, I saw that, it was a good synopsis. I’m just having a problem believing that it’s going to be THAT bad of a winter. IMO, I don’t think it’s likely, but I may be wrong This is not a good sign, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, frd said: This is not a good sign, at least initially. Agreed, it looks very ugly going into November. It was a concern HM, BAMWX and a few other mets had mentioned a couple of months ago...the massive amount of smoke from the wildfires that got ejected into the stratosphere, the +QBO, the record low arctic sea ice. The SPV looks to strengthen very substantially going into November as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed, it looks very ugly going into November. It was a concern HM, BAMWX and a few other mets had mentioned a couple of months ago...the massive amount of smoke from the wildfires that got ejected into the stratosphere, the +QBO, the record low arctic sea ice. The SPV looks to strengthen very substantially going into November as well.. If I recall correctly last November provided the old reliable head fake with a rather - AO. The real move up with the AO did not take place until December I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 hours ago, frd said: This is not a good sign, at least initially. Great. Another crap winter. See you next year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Great. Another crap winter. See you next year. Whadda ya think? Say, next October? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Great. Another crap winter. See you next year. Actually I’d rather the AO rise now in November than later. This is just weenie science, but what matters is post thanksgiving. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Actually I’d rather the AO rise now in November than later. This is just weenie science, but what matters is post thanksgiving. Agree. Nobody needs good set ups or snow chances before Thanksgiving......well except @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I’m confused. What’s the big deal with a spiking positive AO in November? It seems to me that it would be a waste if the AO was to dive negative in mid November when our climatology says we don’t get snow. We never do wall to wall winter, so I’d rather it be bad in November and recover for our Christmas blizzard. . edited to note beaten to the punch. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Unless it rises and stays there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 42 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m confused. What’s the big deal with a spiking positive AO in November? It seems to me that it would be a waste if the AO was to dive negative in mid November when our climatology says we don’t get snow. We never do wall to wall winter, so I’d rather it be bad in November and recover for our Christmas blizzard. . edited to note beaten to the punch. Last year had a cold November (-AO if i remember correctly) followed by...well we know what followed that. Not saying we should expect it to be 100% opposite of last year — but what happens in November doesn’t set the stage for the rest of the winter is my point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Unless it rises and stays there And then we call the doctor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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