Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

In DT we trust. 

DT lol Has he gotten a winter forecast right in the last 4 years? I lost all respect for him when I saw him wish cancer on someone who disagreed with him a few years back

[snowman19]

Read on Twitter earlier that Henry Margusity is supposedly hyping on his paid site that there’s a classic tripole in the Atlantic SSTs that will lead to a -NAO winter....if true, not sure what he’s looking at, but we have anything but a classic tripole right now: 

VS what we have:  

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Read on Twitter earlier that Henry Margusity is supposedly hyping on his paid site that there’s a classic tripole in the Atlantic SSTs that will lead to a -NAO winter....if true, not sure what he’s looking at, but we have anything but a classic tripole right now: 

VS what we have:  

Why do people continue to commit intellecutal suicide by reading Henry?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

DT lol Has he gotten a winter forecast right in the last 4 years? I lost all respect for him when I saw him wish cancer on someone who disagreed with him a few years back

To be fair, I think most have done poorly the past couple of years. I know raindance and Tom hit last year.....about it.

But NOONE forecasted the level of atrocity that unfolded throughout January and February of 2020.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/23/2020 at 1:19 PM, psuhoffman said:

@Winter Wizard

what sticks out for our area is when you look at each snowfall event you find that even the ones in a +AO/NAO Nina came during a period of blocking within the +AO. 2000 was a good example. All the snow came during a 10 day period with blocking. The rest of the winter was virtually snowless. 

I could see something like that this season. I really like 2000 as an analog, too....prob +3 on my big three list.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Could anyone in here post the UK and CFS forecast for la nina? I have only been able to find the plumes...I'm looking for the SST anomaly maps.

Thanks.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could anyone in here post the UK and CFS forecast for la nina? I have only been able to find the plumes...I'm looking for the SST anomaly maps.

Thanks.

I’m looking now....I know it was said that both models are forecasting a strong La Niña, if I find it, I’ll give you the links right away 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see something like that this season. I really like 2000 as an analog, too....prob +3 on my big three list.

I see the similarities. And while 2000 was one of the best snowfall Nina’s in our area I also think expecting a repeat of that 2 week stretch in January is risky. We torched with no chance at snow the entire rest of that winter.  What if that short period of blocking didn’t happen. Or what if we simply didn’t get lucky and nothing came of it. I tend to think of the outcome that season as more lucky than good. A repeat could end up a disaster. Please convince me otherwise though. I could use some optimism. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see the similarities. And while 2000 was one of the best snowfall Nina’s in our area I also think expecting a repeat of that 2 week stretch in January is risky. We torched with no chance at snow the entire rest of that winter.  What if that short period of blocking didn’t happen. Or what if we simply didn’t get lucky and nothing came of it. I tend to think of the outcome that season as more lucky than good. A repeat could end up a disaster. Please convince me otherwise though. I could use some optimism. 

Err....2020 chaos leading to us fluking into something?  But seriously though, do we have much other choice but to hope for fluke(s) in a nina?

[CAPE]

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Err....2020 chaos leading to us fluking into something?  But seriously though, do we have much other choice but to hope for fluke(s) in a nina?

Getting it to snow here is fluky most winters. It's probably become more so recently.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 10/23/2020 at 9:26 AM, RIC_WX said:

The difference is entirely in the NAO.  In 95/96, we had alternating periods of cold/snow and otherwise mild and sunny wx, it was the winter that had something for everyone.  I believe it's remembered as cold because winter showed up early and hung around into April in addition to all the snow - but in the means it wasn't really cold, and plenty of very mild days.  The blocking slowed the overall pattern progression enough to extend the cold intrusions and pull the storm track into the ideal location for us repeatedly - shift the SE ridge 500 miles southeast and watch what happens.

Hard to argue we are seeing a much different setup this year, but absent any sustained blocking the cold is in and out in 36 hours, the SE ridge is back over our heads instead of off the coast, the storm track is west of the mountains.  Unless you can explain what will break the persistence of the past several winters to deliver more than transient periods of bootleg blocking we are getting a very similar pattern we would have seen in 95/96 if the block hadn't been present.

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 and 09/10, both of which had long stretches of warm, snowless in between storms. We never do sustained cold and snowcover in this region so the question to me is more about why in the big years does everything seem to line up at just exactly the correct times over and over.

[Heisy]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see something like that this season. I really like 2000 as an analog, too....prob +3 on my big three list.

One of my favorite winters in Philly. If you’re talking about 00-01. It had an event pretty much every month. Just an exciting winter with the NAO in late December. Dec 30 still the first legit snowstorm I stayed up all night on wxforums. I remember speaking to Ji at like 2 in the AM he was depressed since the skies were clear with a winter storm warning lol. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 and 09/10, both of which had long stretches of warm, snowless in between storms. We never do sustained cold and snowcover in this region so the question to me is more about why in the big years does everything seem to line up at just exactly the correct times over and over.

We always talk about the importance of HL blocking, but many times it is not sustained. In 2009-10 it was pretty much wall to wall, legit -AO/NAO for the entire winter (see my display pic). That sets us up so we don't have to thread the needle. Ofc it was also a Modoki Nino. We get that combo and its hard not to see a few big winter storms.

[Heisy]

18 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 and 09/10, both of which had long stretches of warm, snowless in between storms. We never do sustained cold and snowcover in this region so the question to me is more about why in the big years does everything seem to line up at just exactly the correct times over and over.

It just seems we’ll never know the exact answer to that because there are just too many factors. Not only dealing with meteorological, but we have constant changing climate issues as well. 

[Stormfly]

Jan 25, 2000...

I like surprises but that one was the best!

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Blizzard

[CAPE]

Hard to beat the December 2009 storm for me. December is mostly a Fall month around here, and we rarely see a KU event before Xmas.

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hard to beat the December 2009 storm for me. December is mostly a Fall month around here, and we rarely see a KU event before Xmas.

Cold powder with no mixing worries along/east of 95 with any storm in winter is a blessing, especially pre-Christmas.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Cold powder with no mixing worries along/east of 95 with any storm in winter is a blessing, especially pre-Christmas.

Yup. It was rare and perfect. Sure it was a slushy, foggy mess by Xmas day and it rained, but that's how we roll here.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

One of my favorite winters in Philly. If you’re talking about 00-01. It had an event pretty much every month. Just an exciting winter with the NAO in late December. Dec 30 still the first legit snowstorm I stayed up all night on wxforums. I remember speaking to Ji at like 2 in the AM he was depressed since the skies were clear with a winter storm warning lol. 

No. 1999-2000.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Cold powder with no mixing worries along/east of 95 with any storm in winter is a blessing, especially pre-Christmas.

Underscores the importance of a sustained -AO/NAO in setting us up for the perfect storm track, with easy access to fresh cold air. The rest was due to the pronounced STJ, courtesy of the moderate Nino.

Memories...

[nj2va]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Underscores the importance of a sustained -AO/NAO in setting us up for the perfect storm track, with easy access to fresh cold air. The rest was due to the pronounced STJ, courtesy of the moderate Nino.

Memories...

That was the first year I started tracking storms on models and I remember thinking “geesh, what’s so hard about this...we keep getting perfect storm setups”.  

Ahhh - then reality set up in subsequent winters...

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

That was the first year I started tracking storms on models and I remember thinking “geesh, what’s so hard about this...we keep getting perfect storm setups”.  

Ahhh - then reality set up in subsequent winters...

It did seem so easy. It was like the inverse of what we typically see. Temps would start off marginal than get colder as the snow fell. (-AO/NAO)

The exception was the late Jan cold powder moderate event with temps in the mid teens. I loved that one, as it ended the "snow drought" and we could see the potential in the LR for what was to come in Feb.

That was one winter where "we"(relatively speaking) actually worked. lol.

[RIC_WX]

5 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 

I don't remember much help in the atlantic side that winter - it was a unusual pac driven winter.  As you recall, nearly all of the LR forecasts (including CWG) called for a mild winter that year.  It was a rare example of things going the opposite of all the consensus thinking which, like today, had us mostly convinced winter is over before it ever gets started.

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I don't remember much help in the atlantic side that winter - it was a unusual pac driven winter.  As you recall, nearly all of the LR forecasts (including CWG) called for a mild winter that year.  It was a rare example of things going the opposite of all the consensus thinking which, like today, had us mostly convinced winter is over before it ever gets started.

Yeah it was EPO/WPO driven. The AO/NAO was predominantly positive to neutral at times.

[Heisy]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. 1999-2000.

Ohhh right right, I’m mixing up the years. Still remember Jan 25 that year but not much else. I left in the evening to a WWF event of all things and TWC saying storm is shifting west. Came home around 11 to a winter storm warning for 6-12 and tried staying awake for the first flakes...checking the radar at every 8 on the clock on the local forecast...such a dork haha. Of course I passed out, but caught the tail end of the heavy stuff before the dry slot. 

[yoda]

WSW's are up in Oklahoma and Texas for ice... up to 0.4" of ice is possible... in late October

[CAPE]

The GEFS extended range continues to advertise some improvement in the high latitudes for mid to late November. We shall see how this works out, but if there is to be some semblance of a -AO/NAO as we head into December, we should continue to see indications on guidance over the next few weeks.

[poolz1]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The GEFS extended range continues to advertise some improvement in the high latitudes for mid to late November. We shall see how this works out, but if there is to be some semblance of a -AO/NAO as we head into December, we should continue to see indications on guidance over the next few weeks.

 

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov.  Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously.

I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern.  If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov.  Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously.

I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern.  If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

Yeah I am just looking for hints as we head towards December. There are some thoughts that the first part of winter may favor higher h5 heights up top,  while the PAC hasn't gone full puke mode yet. CFS doesn't have a particularly favorable AO/NAO, but hints at a ridge over/north of AK for Dec and Jan.

[Rhino16]

I would not be surprised if the only decent snow that happens goes way south and misses us giving NC some snow... just because why not. Let’s hope 2021 is a little more friendly. We need some friendly flakes every once in awhile...