Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[CAPE]

Since we can, why not?

The super duper extended GEFS looks blocky for much of November.

 

[CAPE]

^That little blue spot off the MA coast is probably a blizzard.

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

^That little blue spot off the MA coast is probably a blizzard.

Beach chase coming up ! 

[frd]

 

For those who follow the PDO , this is an eye opener.  As bluewave noted,  you do not typically see this in a Nina. Oh, and as you can see from the image below unless you are talking real time cause and effect, don't get excited just yet. Just look at last December 1 st and then the following Jan 15 th time period. We went from + PDO to negative PDO in a matter of weeks, with a two point deviation decline.    

 

<

The PDO isn’t following the La Niña playbook this fall. This was one of the biggest PDO increases during a La Niña in October. But as we have seen since the record North Pacific warming in 2013, these monthly values can really jump around a lot. Last winter we went from positive  in December to negative during January and February. It all comes down to how the North Pacific ridge behaves.

>

 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

^That little blue spot off the MA coast is probably a blizzard.

AO is positive. No cold. Next.

Unless...the storm creates its own cold! I'm in!

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, mattie g said:

AO is positive. No cold. Next.

Unless...the storm creates its own cold! I'm in!

lol

It's probably neutral, not that it matters at hour 816 on a GEFS run.

[midatlanticweather]

No idea if this will help us.. Too early to tell. But interesting.

 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

No idea if this will help us.. Too early to tell. But interesting.

Last couple years we had good gains and I believe record North America snow cover in early December . 

Then, after December 20th it starts to shrink due to Pac air and a warmer NA pattern. Last year, and the year before were very abrupt turn around.    

However, my speculation is that we at least may get an impact from this moving into mid to later November,  in terms of colder air . The SAI and extent regarding a connection to the winters dominant ensuing AO phase has basically be proven false.   However, we do need a healthy cryosphere to support significant cold in our  region.  We may get some a few -EPO intervals this winter.   

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Last couple years we had good gains and I believe record North America snow cover in early December . 

Then, after December 20th it starts to shrink due to Pac air and a warmer NA pattern. Last year, and the year before were very abrupt turn around.    

However, my speculation is that we at least may get an impact from this moving into mid to later November,  in terms of colder air . The SAI and extent regarding a connection to the winters dominant ensuing AO phase has basically be proven false.   However, we do need a healthy cryosphere to support significant cold in our  region.  We may get some a few -EPO intervals this winter.   

Just my opinion, but I think it will take some -EPO episodes to save us from another generally crap winter. I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant  negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant  negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

 

Everything is out of whack with the indices such as the QBO for example and I am simply mentioning something I read from Tip over in the NE winter forum.

I thought what he mentioned supported some of the forecasts last winter regarding the solar min and a  winter - AO . Later I read that there is a delayed factor, and actually the effect of a solar min may have more to do with its impact on the North Atlantic currents,  ( and the - NAO ) . The ocean outcome on the NAO domain may take some time.  

HM mentioned the Greenland summer  ice melts since 2013,  and how this is messing up what you might expect. Or,  as HM stated, it throws a monkey wrench into the possible correlation of the spring SST  tripole and the ensuing winter's NAO phase.  

As for TIP he  stated this in regards to the -AO and solar minimums  : (please note -  this is only a portion of his post - see the bolded part ) 

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I personally believe the recent observations wrt to the HC also play a role in enhancing the +AO, because: .. intuitively, the 2-6 phases of the MJO are probably getting a large/super synoptic scale constructive interference pattern by the current +HC ...  which offers an early clue as to +AO winter ... experimental.  Which is interesting, because the solar minimum going back hundreds of years of reanalysis ..certainly correlates reasonably well if not fantastically so, with the -AO ...again...we're stuck with diametric signals here.  

>

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Last couple years we had good gains and I believe record North America snow cover in early December . 

Then, after December 20th it starts to shrink due to Pac air and a warmer NA pattern. Last year, and the year before were very abrupt turn around.    

However, my speculation is that we at least may get an impact from this moving into mid to later November,  in terms of colder air . The SAI and extent regarding a connection to the winters dominant ensuing AO phase has basically be proven false.   However, we do need a healthy cryosphere to support significant cold in our  region.  We may get some a few -EPO intervals this winter.   

I don’t even look at the Judah Cohen snake oil SAI index anymore, that proved itself to be nonsense. Looks like the models, once again are pulling their normal phantom AO/NAO blocking fantasies in the long range, right on schedule: 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Just my opinion, but I think it will take some -EPO episodes to save us from another generally crap winter. I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant  negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

Couldn’t agree more. The “solar minimum” argument is just more snake oil

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Surprise!

 

I lost all respect for him when he was hyping a very cold and snowy winter for the east coast back in 15-16 with a raging super El Niño in place.....just showed how ignorant he is

[frd]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Couldn’t agree more. The “solar minimum” argument is just more snake oil

With the amount of busted winter forecasts the last 2 to 3 years I wouldn't jump to any conclusion.  Solar minimum might be included in the current grouping of crazy indices such as the QBO, MJO wamer phase, and others. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I lost all respect for him when he was hyping a very cold and snowy winter for the east coast back in 15-16 with a raging super El Niño in place.....just showed how ignorant he is

SAI and the Ural High are two different things as you know. I certainly put more faith and value on the Ural High connection then tracking weekly snowfall above 60 degrees North.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

With the amount of busted winter forecasts the last 2 to 3 years I wouldn't jump to any conclusion.  Solar minimum might be included in the current grouping of crazy indices such as the QBO, MJO wamer phase, and others. 

Yeah I don't think we can call it "snake oil" unless it doesn't yield any results this year. But if we manage a blocked miracle or two that somehow gets us to at least 18" then it still counts in my book  

[frd]

@psuhoffman knows more about this then me but I believe there may be a connection according to some mets that certain phases of the MJO correlate with a + AO and some with a - AO.  It is much more complicated then what I listed here tending to do with winds, circulations and the PV. 

I believe TIP mentioned phases 2 to 6 equate to a more pronounced + AO , while the other phases are more so opposite. 

I find it interesting that we are now  in phase 5 with a +AO and a pv that is getting stronger. 

Ventrice mentioned yesterday we may make progress to MJO phases 8 and 1 in November. If so, could that promote a weakening pv and a transitioning AO to a negative state? 

Mid November looks interesting to me.  Don't forget too the development of the Ural High as well. 

 

 

[frd]

6 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

No idea if this will help us.. Too early to tell. But interesting.

Looks to increase significantly over the next 7 days. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman knows more about this then me but I believe there may be a connection according to some mets that certain phases of the MJO correlate with a + AO and some with a - AO.  It is much more complicated then what I listed here tending to do with winds, circulations and the PV. 

I believe TIP mentioned phases 2 to 6 equate to a more pronounced + AO , while the other phases are more so opposite. 

I find it interesting that we are now  in phase 5 with a +AO and a pv that is getting stronger. 

Ventrice mentioned yesterday we may make progress to MJO phases 8 and 1 in November. If so, could that promote a weakening pv and a transitioning AO to a negative state? 

Mid November looks interesting to me.  Don't forget too the development of the Ural High as well. 

 

 

The MC phases are more correlated to a +AO than the IO and Dateline phases. This is speculation but I think the relationship is an effect of the central pac ridge promoted by those phases tightening the pac jet and the gradient between the Hadley cell and the PV thus speeding up the flow around it and by effect promoting a stronger more pole centered symmetrical PV. 

[EasternLI]

Here's a newer paper on the MJO - AO connection. But also how the QBO modulation plays into it. For anyone who is interested in a little reading. It's open access. 

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/175

[CAPE]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Just my opinion, but I think it will take some -EPO episodes to save us from another generally crap winter. I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant  negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

Good ol' CFS at range.. December would be acceptable too, with a +PNA, and the -EPO taking shape. Not the likeliest of outcomes in a moderate Nina.

 

[Chris78]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good ol' CFS at range.. December would be acceptable too, with a +PNA, and the -EPO taking shape. Not the likeliest of outcomes in a moderate Nina.

 

We have the WDI index going for us this year in regards to help up top. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Good ol' CFS at range.. December would be acceptable too, with a +PNA, and the -EPO taking shape. Not the likeliest of outcomes in a moderate Nina.

 

I think its relatively likely for December....PNA is more dubious, but so far....it looks like the PDO may not be as hostile as originally feared, so...

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't think we can call it "snake oil" unless it doesn't yield any results this year. But if we manage a blocked miracle or two that somehow gets us to at least 18" then it still counts in my book  

My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.

Was actually referring to the solar minimum 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Was actually referring to the solar minimum 

Well, my response if the same with respect to that.

[frd]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.

I believe signs point to a normal December in the Northeast temp wise.  . Expecting a change although temporary to a more blocking pattern. Advantages in regards to the SAI I feel contribute to a cold(er) December period. Of course speculation. NH and especially North Amercia snow cover still look to rapidly expand next 5 to 8 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, frd said:

I believe signs point to a normal December in the Northeast temp wise.  . Expecting a change although temporary to a more blocking pattern. Advantages in regards to the SAI I feel contribute to a cold(er) December period. Of course speculation. NH and especially North Amercia snow cover still look to rapidly expand next 5 to 8 days. 

I wouldn't disagree with any of this.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It seems that the gfs modeling is right in line with what can be typical in Ninas. At range models will send cold fronts south and east bringing shots of cold but as you get closer the cold tends to hit a wall and gets shunted east and has a difficult time making southeastward progress. The gfs had already done this once, this week, and not sure that it won’t next week too.