aldie 22 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Winter must be coming the squirrel's are furiously gathering stormchaserchucks to hunker down 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Winter must be coming the squirrel's are furiously gathering stormchaserchucks to hunker down Must be big axx squirrels ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Never seen 75% on the CPC's 3-month Winter before. (edit: that was before). Weak-weather.gov continues to play behind on the most basic weather-observation sense.. I doubt the NW will verify this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Winter must be coming the squirrel's are furiously gathering stormchaserchucks to hunker down My cats gained like 7 pounds recently.. I think that’s a sign or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Guess we might need a LR thread soon, but the GFS has consistently been throwing out some pretty serious cold for this time of year around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guess we might need a LR thread soon, but the GFS has consistently been throwing out some pretty serious cold for this time of year around Halloween. Maybe you all will get paid back for the snowstorm that misses you back in December of 2018. And we get even more rain down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Nina results vary, but cool to see the various temp profiles going back to 1925. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I just don't see signs for a SE-ridge. That would mean the pattern is more than weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I found a winter outlook that provides some optimism: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 14 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guess we might need a LR thread soon, but the GFS has consistently been throwing out some pretty serious cold for this time of year around Halloween. It likes to do this in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 Looking at the latest LR global means, some significant changes up top. Lots of blue, and CFS weeklies continue that through November. The -NAO period was possibly just a transitional thing. The CFS run of indicating HL help for the winter months seems to have finally ended. Its h5 depiction for DJF aligns with most other climate/seasonals now. Has a +AO/NAO throughout. The mean EPAC ridge location/orientation could be worse though. Actually has hints of an EPO ridge, esp for late winter. fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 16 hours ago, frd said: Nina results vary, but cool to see the various temp profiles going back to 1925. Back in July, never in a million years did I think this Niña event would ever approach strong, but it appears to be doing just that. The models continue to get stronger with it. It’s now fully coupled, ENSO region 4 has dropped like a rock. There are also shades of the 88-89 strong La Niña showing up, which HM and Ben Noll have pointed out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Simply the fact the Nina is strong doesn’t necessarily mean a torch winter. There have been some cold or somewhat snowy strong Nina’s. However, there are plenty of other factors that in conjunction with a strong Nina aren’t good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Simply the fact the Nina is strong doesn’t necessarily mean a torch winter. There have been some cold or somewhat snowy strong Nina’s. However, there are plenty of other factors that in conjunction with a strong Nina aren’t good. As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter Significant HL blocking can mitigate a lot of bad elsewhere. Unfortunately we are on a bad run in that dept. I suppose we are due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Significant HL blocking can mitigate a lot of bad elsewhere. Unfortunately we are on a bad run in that dept. I suppose we are due. You rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: Significant HL blocking can mitigate a lot of bad elsewhere. Unfortunately we are on a bad run in that dept. I suppose we are due. Very true. I guess you also have to consider that the 73-74 super La Niña occurred during a totally different, cooler climate era. I kind of doubt that even with a complete carbon copy of 73-74 this winter, you’d have the same results in the temperature and snowfall departments.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 20 hours ago, CAPE said: Significant HL blocking can mitigate a lot of bad elsewhere. Unfortunately we are on a bad run in that dept. I suppose we are due. This part of the equation is where my pessimism lies. We can and have had decent snowfall in a strong Nina. But every instance took high latitude blocking. Not some. Not most EVERY SINGLE one. I can’t stress that enough. Since 1948 Baltimore hasn’t had a single warning level snowfall during either a strong Nina or a central pacific ridge (predominant effect if said Nina) without blocking. Even when we include non Nina years that featured a Central pac ridge I found not one single significant snowfall with that pac pattern that didn’t include blocking. I get the sense some people think we might luck our way into a snowstorm even with a strong pac ridge and +NAO. But history suggests we won’t. That if we do get the currently expected pacific and Atlantic patterns we are just as much toast as we were last year. I’m not saying we won’t get snow. But I’m saying we need one of those two patterns to break our way. Not the whole winter. Look at 2000. We only got the high latitudes to cooperate for a few weeks but that was enough to save us. But if we do get a wall to wall +NAO like we’ve seen for years now...I am not optimistic “luck” saves us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just to illustrate my point. Even if we do get some NAO help were still not likely to get a great winter. But history suggest something close to median and maybe avg if we’re lucky. Not too bad. But let’s say we get another wall to wall +NAO. The best analog matches are then 1949/50, 1975/76, 1988/89 and 2007/08. I am not going to run the numbers for every location but 2 of those 4 years were WORSE here than last year! And the other 2 were only marginally slightly better. And only better due to flukes. 1976 all the snow came from a big mid March save. And 2007/8 almost all the snow came from an early December clipper that somehow dropped 7” on only .25 qpf. Otherwise those 2 years were just as awful with virtually no snow here the rest of winter. So history says if we don’t get NAO help it’s likely to be just as bad as last year. Last year wasn’t bad luck. It wasn’t a fluke. It was exactly what a strong Nina pac pattern looks like with a +AO/NAO. (Yes I know it wasn’t a strong Nina but the atmosphere behaved like one so my point is valid). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 To be more optimistic if we do get some blocking help the better analogs become 1955/56, 1973/74, 1999/00, 2010/11. They all features some respectable cold periods and some decent snowstorms. We’re still not looking at a blockbuster but those years felt like we had a winter at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: To be more optimistic if we do get some blocking help the better analogs become 1955/56, 1973/74, 1999/00, 2010/11. They all features some respectable cold periods and some decent snowstorms. We’re still not looking at a blockbuster but those years felt like we had a winter at least. Agree here. The 73-74 winter is real interesting, you had a raging strong La Niña (strongest in history) and a very deeply negative PDO, yet it turned out to be a pretty decent winter for cold and snow. That really illustrates your point of how important both AO and NAO blocking are for the east coast during moderate and strong La Niña events.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Atlantic City got lucky when a foot of snow fell in late February 1989...Freehold NJ got 10" in late Feb 1974...both times NYC and DCA got less than 2"...even in a bad winter some places get a big storm...DCA got an 8.4" storm on 3/9/99 while NYC got very little if any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Is there any good news for us, or is this really looking like another shut out for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is there any good news for us, or is this really looking like another shut out for us? It looks really bad. Possible complete winter cancel in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 We’d be better off shutting down this thread and the MR/LR thread. Clearly it’ll be 52 and rainy from D through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: We’d be better off shutting down this thread and the MR/LR thread. Clearly it’ll be 52 and rainy from D through March. Agreed. Who was that dumbass that started a MR thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 It will snow this winter. Projected mean patterns are just that. We normally get a few shots each winter. Last winter was an o-fer for most, and while it could happen again this winter, it probably won't. Nina winters don't often produce above avg snow, and can be super frustrating with the typical NS dominant flow/late developing coastals. I will say this again- the last 2 Ninas produced slightly below median, and slightly above avg snowfall here, respectively. Both produced big snowstorms(one was a blizzard) for the immediate coastal plain, with no blocking. Clearly better outcomes than the so called Nino and warm neutral of the past 2 winters for my yard. And yes, while DC-BWI and west missed both of those Nina events, it wouldn't have taken much for better outcomes in those areas. Ofc this is a imby business, so I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Has anyone ever done correlation analysis between conditions in October/November and the resultant NAO state during DJF? I'm sure it's been done, and I'd be interested in reading if anyone has a link. It's hard to just cancel winter when there is some off-chance that we do have -NAO. While it has only occurred few times in the past 20 years, it's not theoretically impossible, right? It even happened during a Nina in 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Has anyone ever done correlation analysis between conditions in October/November and the resultant NAO state during DJF? I'm sure it's been done, and I'd be interested in reading if anyone has a link. It's hard to just cancel winter when there is some off-chance that we do have -NAO. While it has only occurred few times in the past 20 years, it's not theoretically impossible, right? It even happened during a Nina in 2010-2011. Go back and read the previous few pages ITT. This has been discussed at length. Also I am not sure anyone is 'canceling' winter. Well maybe Ji has, but he doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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