BristowWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter? I mean... it’s pretty much Richmond, so 6” is something I’ll take no questions asked. Much better then the less than half an inch from last year that was split up between 2 separate events, both of which melted before I could get home. (I think 1 was november 11th-ish? And the other was February 20 I believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 10, 2020 Author Share Posted October 10, 2020 ^This is all good. Expect median, or less, and be content. Much more realistic than thinking you are going to see average or above most winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 I guess I can accept "median" especially coming off last year, but never content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 18 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I had for lunch... and you are what you eat. Nothing will stop me from believing it cannot be worse than last year. There’s no way I’ll only get half an inch or less. You must be new to the area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 14 hours ago, CAPE said: This doesn't make much sense honestly. Plenty of variability in Nina winters, year to year and month to month. I should have said as a sweeping generality, Niñas tend to be front loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: You must be new to the area lol No... just had 2 weenies for lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: No... just had 2 weenies for lunch. Two decades ago, on another forum, that would have been a DT quote. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Models laying down quite a bit of North American snow over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Big winter coming guys! 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Cigarette burns in the carpet are the worst. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 11, 2020 Author Share Posted October 11, 2020 I'll go with the black squirrels. I have never seen one imy until this Fall. Now seeing them all over- It has to mean something. Low solar...black squirrels...yeah baby. HL blocking winter incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just moved from Southeast Elkridge to pretty much the far northwest part of Ellicott City, so hoping that's a good omen for this upcoming winter and many to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just moved from Southeast Elkridge to pretty much the far northwest part of Ellicott City, so hoping that's a good omen for this upcoming winter and many to come. Nice! Couple hundred feet of elevation certainly will. You’ll notice it in marginal events for sure, which are probably most of our events this coming year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Big winter coming guys! You shaved off one eyebrow!? That has to be good luck!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Looks like someone had an accident with a can of Krylon ultra flat black! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 On 10/9/2020 at 6:52 PM, WxUSAF said: I had literally one evening last winter where I could take a walk in the snow. Hard to be worse than that. Doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Yup. We haven't gotten to the point of no evening snow walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 For those interested in the prediction value of the GloSea5 model and the seasonal winter NAO phase, great post here by Grit. < The Met Office prides itself on its predictions of the NAO with its seasonal model. I looked at the NAO prediction from prior October seasonal model output back to Oct 2009 (this is the oldest date in the archive on the seasonal model site - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean). In looking at the charts, I would say that in 9 of the 11 years, the October prediction of the NAO on the model was a good one. The 2 misses were in Oct 2013 and 2015. Here was the Oct seasonal output from 2010 and 2011 - both quite good with the NAO prediction (-NAO in 2010-2011 / +NAO in 2011-2012), with both of those being La Nina winters. Finally, here is a chart from the Met Office showing hindcasts for their prediction of the NAO with the GloSea5 seasonal model for the winters of 1993 to 2012. The results are pretty good. Note: this is the NAO prediction from the Nov1 release each year - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059637 > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 3 hours ago, frd said: For those interested in the prediction value of the GloSea5 model and the seasonal winter NAO phase, great post here by Grit. < The Met Office prides itself on its predictions of the NAO with its seasonal model. I looked at the NAO prediction from prior October seasonal model output back to Oct 2009 (this is the oldest date in the archive on the seasonal model site - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean). In looking at the charts, I would say that in 9 of the 11 years, the October prediction of the NAO on the model was a good one. The 2 misses were in Oct 2013 and 2015. Here was the Oct seasonal output from 2010 and 2011 - both quite good with the NAO prediction (-NAO in 2010-2011 / +NAO in 2011-2012), with both of those being La Nina winters. Finally, here is a chart from the Met Office showing hindcasts for their prediction of the NAO with the GloSea5 seasonal model for the winters of 1993 to 2012. The results are pretty good. Note: this is the NAO prediction from the Nov1 release each year - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059637 > The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Can we just cancel winter and move on already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but... I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, mattie g said: I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but... I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us. We pretty sure it wont be a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: We pretty sure it wont be a Nino. I honestly haven't bothered looking. Does it really matter any more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I honestly haven't bothered looking. Does it really matter any more? The last 2 winters were weak, wimpy undefined Nino/warm neutral, and the sensible weather that resulted could have easily occurred in a Nina. So I guess its debatable, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/9/2020 at 6:45 PM, CAPE said: Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter? Yes. That would mean a couple more events that would give us some semblance of anticipation prior to the overnight winter weather advisory from midnight to 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Let's hope that the hurricane pulls down the colder weather in Canada and produces an east coast snowacaine on the 28th. I would gladly punt the entire winter season if that were to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Hey @WxWatcher007, is the Panic Room open yet for this season? Looks like you'll have an overflow crowd right from the start! Perhaps introduce "contactless" check-in!! And sanitize each room with tears from agonized snow weenies! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/11/2020 at 11:43 AM, leesburg 04 said: Big winter coming guys! Brasileira lounging in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Great form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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