Maestrobjwa Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 But really...and maybe this is just a mild hunch, but...I feel like IF we are surprised in a good way this year, and it's only supposed to be one opportunity (as opposed to some '96 style anomaly all winter) it might just be in December. I base that off of nothing else but a hunch (and I admittedly smoked a little almanac too), and my expectations are still appropriately low! But this is 2020...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That one goes in the hall of shame. Stupid confluence to the north, lol Perfect 50/50 but a lobe rotated around at the exact wrong time and squashed the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Perfect 50/50 but a lobe rotated around at the exact wrong time and squashed the flow. Will never forget that h5 (horrible 5) look...lol Was a literal forcefield. But I'm slowly learning about the "chaos" side of things when it comes to our snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That one goes in the hall of shame. Stupid confluence to the north, lol I loved it down in Richmond... pretty fun. Felt pretty bad for everyone else up north as I watched it happen. The news stations here didn’t expect it to be much at all, but kept increasing the totals all night until we ended at our 10+ or so inches. A special someone harassed the news reports after that for awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: They both "mean something". You have to keep in mind it is a super LR mean- a monthly mean at that. I pay more attention to the height anomalies on these panels, as it is indicative of where the features of interest may set up in general. Outside of a super blocked up pattern though, clearly there will be some shifts in the location and intensity of the + and -height anomalies. Yeah, makes sense. And it’s an entire 30 or so days in one image. Here in that time, you can go from 80s to single digits three times in that amount of time. AND, as someone said, it’s the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 10 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Yeah, makes sense. And it’s an entire 30 or so days in one image. Here in that time, you can go from 80s to single digits three times in that amount of time. AND, as someone said, it’s the CFS. None of these seasonal/climate models are very good more than a month out. Even the Euro is pretty bad. That said, as a group they are worth monitoring to get some idea of the big picture pattern. Nice thing about the CFS is it constantly updates, and it has weeklies out to 6 weeks. Makes it more entertaining. It has been on one of its "good look" runs the past few days. What it is currently advertising for winter would be completely acceptable for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 I am not anywhere close to as advanced in meteorology knowledge as some of you, but I do have some obscure stats. BWI has not had an 8+ inch snow total month(December through March) in 4 consecutive winters. BWI has NEVER went 5 consecutive winters doing that. BWI has went 5 consecutive winters with no double digit snow months twice. Never 6 consecutive. So we can tie that this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 6 hours ago, Steve25 said: I am not anywhere close to as advanced in meteorology knowledge as some of you, but I do have some obscure stats. BWI has not had an 8+ inch snow total month(December through March) in 4 consecutive winters. BWI has NEVER went 5 consecutive winters doing that. BWI has went 5 consecutive winters with no double digit snow months twice. Never 6 consecutive. So we can tie that this winter. Its happening this year! We are gonna have an epic ns winter like 2014. Get ready for over performing Clippers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 3 hours ago, 40westwx said: Its happening this year! We are gonna have an epic ns winter like 2014. Get ready for over performing Clippers! Now that would be a funny (and totally 2020-like) scenario...after clippers have been basically AWOL for like 5 years, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Not looking likely, guys. We have the Chukisksi ice at it's highest melt ever. La Nina weak, and strengthing, worry about February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I am starting to like the idea of a mini front loaded winter , however, in our case/area that may simply mean normal temps with a minor event. Meanwhile trends with the PV at this time maintain a normal seasonal progression, along the line of the ERA5 mean. Along with a supported - AO. Even though recent Octobers have exhibited a - AO more so than in the heart of winter. Already spoken here is the possibility of a more so - NAO early in season . Although maybe more East based. And very interesting is this post, and the possible variations of the Nina and the effect on the NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 6 hours ago, frd said: I am starting to like the idea of a mini front loaded winter , however, in our case/area that may simply mean normal temps with a minor event. Meanwhile trends with the PV at this time maintain a normal seasonal progression, along the line of the ERA5 mean. Along with a supported - AO. Even though recent Octobers have exhibited a - AO more so than in the heart of winter. Already spoken here is the possibility of a more so - NAO early in season . Although maybe more East based. And very interesting is this post, and the possible variations of the Nina and the effect on the NH A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said Thing is though that it can’t snow usually in a Nov Dec torch, but you can get lucky during a mild Jan Feb and even March. So if this is the only option we have it’s the best option to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thing is though that it can’t snow usually in a Nov Dec torch, but you can get lucky during a mild Jan Feb and even March. So if this is the only option we have it’s the best option to have. Nov 1987 had a foot of snow between torch's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: Nov 1987 had a foot of snow between torch's... True but it never happened again despite many teases and ambitious long range model runs throughout the years. Maybe a 33 year cycle... so we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: Nov 1987 had a foot of snow between torch's... Yeah but that was a very anomalous event. I’d rather not have to wait on the once in a 50 year event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 A legit wintertime -AO/NAO would help our cause immensely. It has been awhile. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020 Quote Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April). La Niña continued during September, as evidenced by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The SST indices in the two westernmost Nino regions, Nino-4 and Nino-3.4, cooled throughout the month, and the Nino-3.4 index was -1.1°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180°-100°W) remained substantially unchanged [Fig. 3], and continued to reflect below-average temperatures from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the tropical Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date Line, and a slight enhancement of convection emerged over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices remained positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña. A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring [Fig. 6]. The latest forecasts from several models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest the likelihood of a moderate or even strong La Nina (Niño-3.4 index values < -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 DCA Nov-Dec snow...ao/nao for biggest snowfalls... year.....snow"...big snow".................................................AO..........................................NAO............................ 2009....16.6"....16.4" 12/18-19.......................-4238 12/18....-5821 12/21........-2111 12/14....-1964 12/20 1962....16.2"......5.4" 12/25.............................-0656 12/25...-4159 12/31........-2046 12/25 1966....16.1"......6.7" 12/13...7.0" 12/23-24....-4147 12/13...-2343 12/23........-0101 12/13...+0503 12/23 1967....13.2"......6.9" 11/30...4.2" 12/31.........+1812 11/30...+0479 12/31.....+1196 11/30....-0883 12/31 ...includes Nov snow 1989....12.5"......4.5" 12/12-13.........................-3482 12/10...............................-1704 12/10....-0173 12/16 includes Nov snow... 1957....12.0"....11.4" 12/3-4............................-1395 12/1....+0899 12/4..........-1286 12/2.....+0221 12/6 1987....11.5"....11.6" 11/11..............................-0663 11/7....+1056 11/11.........-0286 11/7......+0603 11/11 1973....11.0"....10.2" 12/16-17.......................-1946 12/9......-0888 12/14.........-2792 12/19.......+0320 12/16....-0941 12/24 1960......8.7"......8.5" 12/11-12.......................-0082 12/12........-0781 12/9.......-0078 12/12 2002......7.1"......6.1" 12/5...............................-1938 12/5....................................-1381 12/1......-0351 12/4 1969......6.8"......5.1" 12/25-26........................-3259 12/21...-0971 12/26..........+0054 12/25....-0148 12/26 1953......6.7"......6.6" 11/6-7............................-0554 11/4.....+1291 11/7............+0068 11/5.......+0315 11/6 1982......6.6"......6.6" 12/12.............................-0696 12/12....+2284 12/16.........+1082 12/9......+0657 12/12 1963......6.4"......5.6" 12/23.............................-4470 12/20....+0129 12/23.........-2397 12/13.....-0103 12/23 2003......6.2"......3.6" 12/14.............................+1239 12/13....-0194 12/15.........+0539 12/14....-0015 12/15 1970......5.2"......4.9" 12/31.............................-2530 12/19....-1493 1/1/71..........-2434 12/25....-1731 12/31 2005......4.8"......3.9" 12/5-6............................-3569 12/5.......................................-0921 12/6 enso...la nina in blue...el nino in red...neutral in black...62-66-67 were weak negatives...2003 a weak positive...89 and 60 around neutral... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Having the AO in the negative phase is key for above avg snowfall in DC, and we typically see a -NAO when the AO is negative. It can happen other ways, but it mostly occurs when there is HL blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 interesting zonal wind forecast https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1314440730534989824 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Having the AO in the negative phase is key for above avg snowfall in DC, and we typically see a -NAO when the AO is negative. It can happen other ways, but it mostly occurs when there is HL blocking. Remember the Shrek intro where there’s a book he’s reading and he rips out the page and says “That’s never going to happen!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 18 hours ago, CAPE said: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020 If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I had for lunch... and you are what you eat. Nothing will stop me from believing it cannot be worse than last year. There’s no way I’ll only get half an inch or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 23 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thing is though that it can’t snow usually in a Nov Dec torch, but you can get lucky during a mild Jan Feb and even March. So if this is the only option we have it’s the best option to have. March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter I thought we’d already done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold This doesn't make much sense honestly. Plenty of variability in Nina winters, year to year and month to month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I had for lunch... and you are what you eat. Nothing will stop me from believing it cannot be worse than last year. There’s no way I’ll only get half an inch or less. Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I had literally one evening last winter where I could take a walk in the snow. Hard to be worse than that. Doesn’t mean it’s not possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter? Yes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now