psuhoffman Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters. 2017-18 was weak. Peaking at -1.0 on the tri monthlies. 2016-17 was actually borderline cold neutral as it peaked at -.7 in fall and dropped below Nina status by the DJF period! But there is a lag and enough of the other factors were crap that it didn’t matter. I am not saying the correlation isn’t accurate. Although now I’m curious and will look when I get the chance. Simply saying off the top of my head knowing the enso of some years he included in his “weak Nina” dataset is flawed I wouldn’t take that product very seriously. But in general we do want the qbo negative. So the idea is correct. I doubt that map accurately depicts the correlation though. Wait for the “it’s never going to snow again” crowd to notice the QBO suddenly has tended to want to stay in unfavorable phases lately! Just one more thing for them to pile on! Actually one thing positive to note from recent results. Despite a recent bias to spend a lot of tome in unfavorable phases of pattern drivers (qbo/NAO/AO/EPO/MJO) we have still managed to have a few snowy periods in the last 5 years. Is seems like we do hit more often when we do line up a good pattern. But getting a good pattern is less frequent. If we can ever get into a period of more favorable longwave pattern influences and keep the penchant for frequent big precip events...we could get an epic run! Hopeful I know but why not inject some positivity now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Mersky said: The risk from a changing climate is using analogs that existed in a different climate. While science has improved long range forecasting I believe climate change is going to make it much harder and more difficult for long range forecasts. What’s happening across the globe in 2020 is different then what was happening 30, 40, 50 years ago. The one constant that seems to exist in today’s world is go warmer than normal for every season and you have better than a 50/50 shot of being right. I don’t think the past 9.5 years are being used yet right? When will they be added does anyone have a guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Mersky said: The risk from a changing climate is using analogs that existed in a different climate. While science has improved long range forecasting I believe climate change is going to make it much harder and more difficult for long range forecasts. What’s happening across the globe in 2020 is different then what was happening 30, 40, 50 years ago. The one constant that seems to exist in today’s world is go warmer than normal for every season and you have better than a 50/50 shot of being right. You’re right we should stick to the CFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Once hurricane season is over, i’m going to time travel back to 2010 for the season. Feel free to reap me in the present time. I’ll be back at the end of march or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Time to bust out the Delorean. Where the heck is Doc Brown when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 54 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Once hurricane season is over, i’m going to time travel back to 2010 for the season. Feel free to reap me in the present time. I’ll be back at the end of march or something. Just make sure you don't end up in December of 2010, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Just make sure you don't end up in December of 2010, lol I think I want to go back to the 2009-10 section, not the 10-11 part. Maybe on the way back i’ll stop by 1996 or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2020 Author Share Posted July 25, 2020 Epic HL blocking for the entire winter. It seemingly occurred so easily...effortless. It's like a fantasy now- something that simply cannot occur. Extinct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2020 Author Share Posted July 25, 2020 LOL last winter. The antithesis. We should probably get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 The title of this thread should be changed to Spring 2020-21 Discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Went back to 1950 at DCA to find July that had both 6” of rain and temps +3.0 or higher. Long stretch there weren’t any until: 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Went back to 1950 at DCA to find July that had both 6” of rain and temps +3.0 or higher. Long stretch there weren’t any until: 2019. Did you mean to post this in the other thread? (I can't find the winter connection here, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/25/2020 at 3:38 PM, CAPE said: LOL last winter. The antithesis. We should probably get used to it. Randolph, NH received 207" out of that putrid look. All snow weenies should head north if they want to escape the misery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 9 hours ago, PhineasC said: Randolph, NH received 207" out of that putrid look. All snow weenies should head north if they want to escape the misery. Kinda goes without saying, but cant beat the combo of latitude and elevation, not to mention having a persistent mechanism for orographic lift. With the crappy pattern of last winter, even at this latitude places like Canaan still managed over 100" mainly because of the persistent NW flow induced snow. That usually happens even on the backside of mild inland tracking rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/25/2020 at 3:15 PM, CAPE said: Epic HL blocking for the entire winter. It seemingly occurred so easily...effortless. It's like a fantasy now- something that simply cannot occur. Extinct. And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/19/2020 at 11:06 PM, psuhoffman said: I know a dropping qbo that’s transitioning to negative correlates to colder. Last year was pretty good wrt qbo but did us no good. We wasted it. Frankly other than the solar minimum I see nothing that looks favorable att. There is always dumb luck though. There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña Winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links Here it is, go to page 126: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PR4&lpg=PR4&dq=joe+d'aleo+nina+west&source=bl&ots=IZzwDpsLOl&sig=ACfU3U0KjJcmSsDgryXj2AK4mMRkfMomYg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwidy63sxvfqAhX6gXIEHSDfC50Q6AEwGnoECAUQAQ#v=onepage&q=joe d'aleo nina QBO&f=false 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña Winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links Here’s another study: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/24/8899/34342/The-Stratospheric-Pathway-of-La-Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña Winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links I brought this up on the previous page, but the only info I found was from DT, and he has some of the years wrong. I will look at the links you provided. What I recalled was- wrt La Nina winters- there is a correlation to cold eastern US when there is a very negative QBO during winter, specifically during a weak Nina. It appears we are heading towards a weak Nina for fall/winter, but not so sure the QBO is going to cooperate(looking at current trends), so this may not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 In theory, although it seems nebulous to me, a QBO that is trending negative heading into/during the winter months, favors a weaker PV, and increases chances for a -AO/NAO, in general. During a Nina, a +AO/NAO tends to be favored, so I suppose the idea is that if the QBO is extremely negative, and the La Nina event is on the weak side, those tendencies can be mitigated, and the chances of HL blocking episodes increase. I will leave it to someone else to dig into the data for previous Nina winters to see if this has any validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: In theory, although it seems nebulous to me, a QBO that is trending negative heading into/during the winter months, favors a weaker PV, and increases chances for a -AO/NAO, in general. During a Nina, a +AO/NAO tends to be favored, so I suppose the idea is that if the QBO is extremely negative, and the La Nina event is on the weak side, those tendencies can be mitigated, and the chances of HL blocking episodes increase. I will leave it to someone else to dig into the data for previous Nina winters to see if this has any validity. According to D’Aleo there is also an effect on the PNA. Westerly QBO/Niña favors more -PNA, easterly QBO/Niña favors more +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, Mersky said: So you are going warm and snowless this winter?? Color me shocked LOL His biases aside there isn’t much to be optimistic about ATT. But long range seasonal is low probability and things can change quick. But that’s not a reason to predict a cold snowy winter. I don’t see much to justify such a prediction right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, Mersky said: So you are going warm and snowless this winter?? Color me shocked LOL so you are going to continue doing drive by posts to stir trouble? color me shocked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Good news is that reality is usually opposite of what models show. Looks like a good winter incoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I dont care where else its happening. Don't do it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Good news is that reality is usually opposite of what models show. Looks like a good winter incoming. I wish I could weenie and like a post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I dont care where else its happening. Don't do it here. Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Huh? hidden posts, but they know who i'm talking to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 Fwiw, the new edition of the CanSIPS is out, and it still looks hideous for the winter months. Looking at h5, no HL blocking at all, big EPAC +height anomalies, +heights in the eastern third of the country. Torchy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 I like to believe, (even though there is no scientific reason [as far as I know])that as long as we feel something tropical cyclone related, we will get at least 1 decent snow for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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