40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: We can snow here with a favorable Pacific(PNA/EPO) and a +NAO. Its not always easy and there is a higher risk of bigger storms tracking inland, but we did pretty well in the winter of 13-14. Gotta have the cold available and that pattern delivered consistently. Ofc that winter was not a Nina. A -NAO definitely improves the odds of a favorable storm track down here though. It is pretty much a requirement for a big snow producer, especially for the coastal plain. List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO... Where did I say a -NAO wasn't important? The MA generally doesn't do well in a Nina, period(outside of the western highlands).That has mostly to do with the lack of a subtropical jet and NS dominance, Miller Bs etc. A "good" Nina winter is getting somewhere near average snowfall. There are a few Nina winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow. The last time we had a Nina, 2017-18. many areas here were right at average(not DC, sadly), and right along the coast did better than average. That was a predominantly +NAO winter. There was a MA beach blizzard in early Jan(da bomb cyclone!) although the NAO may have been technically neutral as that storm approached.. Certainly no blocking. So it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where did I say a -NAO wasn't important? The MA generally doesn't do well in a Nina, period(outside of the western highlands).That has mostly to do with the lack of a subtropical jet and NS dominance, Miller Bs etc. A "good" Nina winter is getting somewhere near average snowfall. There are a few winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow. The last time we had a Nina, 2017-18. many areas here were right at average(not DC, sadly), and right along the coast did better than average. That was a predominantly +NAO winter. There was MA beach blizzard in early Jan(da bomb cyclone!) although the NAO may have been technically neutral as that storm approached.. Certainly no blocking. So it can happen. Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are a few Nina winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow A few? Thought '96 was the only one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. Yes it was and we had our best region wide snowfall in March. Eastern areas cashed in during the cold snap the first part of January, while the DC area was cold and dry. That period was driven by a favorable Pac, with not much help in the N Atlantic, which goes back to what I was saying in my initial post on the subject- we can get some good snow here when we have a favorable EPO/PNA, absent a -NAO, although it clearly doesn't happen very often in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February... Granted the seasonal models, Glosea included, all have what appears to be a + NAO. Not as robust as last winter, but I place little faith in long range and medium range NAO domain outlooks. All about timing, etc. I look forward Tom's NAO outlook. I enjoy your insights as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: A few? Thought '96 was the only one, lol 2010-2011... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, frd said: Granted the seasonal models, Glosea included, all have what appears to be a + NAO. Not as robust as last winter, but I place little faith in long range and medium range NAO domain outlooks. All about timing, etc. I look forward Tom's NAO outlook. I enjoy your insights as well. In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2010-2011... But it only helped down here at the end of January. Remember we got gipped in December 2010, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yes it was and we had our best region wide snowfall in March. Eastern areas cashed in during the cold snap the first part of January, while the DC area was cold and dry. That period was driven by a favorable Pac, with not much help in the N Atlantic, which goes back to what I was saying in my initial post on the subject- we can get some good snow here when we have a favorable EPO/PNA, absent a -NAO, although it clearly doesn't happen very often in a Nina. Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2010-2011... Yep. My yard and esp places further east did ok with the Boxing day storm, but despite the blocking, many in this sub forum don't have fond memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol I read a couple posting from TIP that events in a general shotgun area of the NE can be more extreme, in the winter, for example ....I think the idea was a fast PAC flow all the time, but when we funnel that energy into an extreme low pressure area it slows and it becomes one for the ages. So to me that implies, and seems backed possible by the last 10 years, that we are getting more intense storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But it only helped down here at the end of January. Remember we got gipped in December 2010, lol Yea, you can get porked in a neg NAO....no promises, but it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, frd said: I read a couple posting from TIP that events in a general shotgun area of the NE can be more extreme, in the winter, for example ....I think the idea was a fast PAC flow all the time, but when we funnel that energy into an extreme low pressure area it slows and it becomes one for the ages. So to me that implies, and seems backed possible by the last 10 years, that we are getting more intense storms. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But it only helped down here at the end of January. Remember we got gipped in December 2010, lol I'm not expert on mid atl climo, so all I can do is point out a la nina with blocking. By all means, feel free to enlighten me with details. Odds are always against down there in la nina, but its just more palatable with a neg NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But it only helped down here at the end of January. Remember we got gipped in December 2010, lol Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter. LOL Every BY for themselves. Sorry about that...didn't mean to tell you your own climo. That is obnoxious...I was just tossing out a la nina with some blocking. It wasn't a disaster for you guys, though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL Every BY for themselves. Sorry about that...didn't mean to tell you your own climo. That is obnoxious...I was just tossing out a la nina with some blocking. It wasn't a disaster for you guys, though, right? Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days. Gotcha....by "good", I meant above normal....just miscommunication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. My yard and esp places further east did ok with the Boxing day storm, but despite the blocking, many in this sub forum don't have fond memories... It was oh so close to being a really good winter though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever... Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story Even here, its much more difficult. La nina/+NAO couplet is always a dangerous way to live south of the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 On 9/23/2020 at 2:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO... We did pretty well in 2000 by our standards but all the snow fell in 2 weeks when there was blocking. The rest of the winter sucked. We can always root for a fluke like that. Actually, A few years ago heading into the 2017 nino I went back and examined the h5 look leading up to every Nina warning even at BWI going back to 1950. Every single one had some kind of high latitude help. In some cases it was bootleg and didn’t show up well on the numerical NAO. Like blocking near Hudson Bay which is actually one of our better ways to back into a snow event in a flawed longwave pattern here. But I couldn’t find a single significant Nina snow without at least a decent look up top to aid. If the NAO looks like hot garbage in a Nina we can try to luck into some kind of scraps like a front end inch or two or a clipper but we’re not getting anything of substance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 I cant wait to be 31'd. Much better than being 89'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We did pretty well in 2000 by our standards but all the snow fell in 2 weeks when there was blocking. The rest of the winter sucked. We can always root for a fluke like that. Actually, A few years ago heading into the 2017 nino I went back and examined the h5 look leading up to every Nina warning even at BWI going back to 1950. Every single one had some kind of high latitude help. In some cases it was bootleg and didn’t show up well on the numerical NAO. Like blocking near Hudson Bay which is actually one of our better ways to back into a snow event in a flawed longwave pattern here. But I couldn’t find a single significant Nina snow without at least a decent look up top to aid. If the NAO looks like hot garbage in a Nina we can try to luck into some kind of scraps like a front end inch or two or a clipper but we’re not getting anything of substance. Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 The h5 look leading up to the coastal blizzard of Jan 2018, aka bomb cyclone. Driven by a very favorable Pacific during that period. Defo a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck. I believe in the WD index that I believe @Bob Chill made up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Regarding the forecasted mild, fluke cold Winter of 2010-11, this area in the far Southwestern part of the Forum wound up with an above average Snow Season. Dec. and January was well above , Feb. Avg. Temps were well below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 43 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe in the WD index that I believe @Bob Chill made up Hey the WDI was my idea! (or at least I thought it was...lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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