Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who is excited for SAI tracking season? Right around the corner!

Nothin' like good ol' snake oil.

That index is money ... as in you won’t have any money if you bet on it.

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That index is money ... as in you won’t have any money if you bet on it.

Gotta give the guy some credit- he manages to claim victory even as his 'discovery' fails over and over. As long as it snows a lot somewhere in the US, and at least one other weather geek on social media mentions Polar Vortex, winner!

[BristowWx]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

My target for snow is Jan-Feb. Sun angle is not the huge deal that many people make it out to be. January is our climo coldest period, and February has a higher probability of the huge HECS type storms. 

Don't get me wrong, I love December snow too - but we can accumulate fine in January and into February with heavy snow - and it will even stick around for a while if it's a big enough storm and isn't followed quickly by 60-70 degree temps. Helps if there's a nice crusty layer on top of course. 

Not directed at you - but I think people forget easily that lowest sun angle does not equal climo coldest. Just like how June 21st is not our climo warmest day of the year. 

I know but the sun angle might help it stay on the ground longer.  Who wants 1-3 melted by noon

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We know day 15 scores are barely better than climo. So not shocking day 100+ is erratic and unreliable. But the models are based on sound physics. Despite what DT says they don’t show things that are physically impossible. Improbable maybe but not impossible. So what these random runs that show a colder winter paradigm say is that yes that outcome is still within the envelop of possibilities. We all know what what the likely outcome is given our Nina climo.  But still within the Nina set are anomalies (1904/5, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1995/96). And we don’t have a really good predictive answer for them. If you showed me all the data from early fall 1995 I wouldn’t have expected that. And I think sometimes the desire to figure it out leads to prescribing too much significance to one factor. Yea the QBO was going negative but we have had other Nina’s with a similar qbo that didn’t lead to that outcome. I think sometimes people are uncomfortable with uncertainty and just admitting “we don’t know”.  Odds favor the typical dud Nina. But maybe come March we are looking back wondering how no one saw that coming!  

Now if you would...and apologies if I'm sounding a bit jumbled...

I'm trying to figure out visually what is required blocking-wise to get what we got in 1996.

Let's say we compare the December 2010 heartbreaker with the blizzard of 96.

Now visually...I remember the snowfall predictions of Dec. 2010 being increased on the northeast part of the map. What would have needed to happen to push that storm much further southwest so that we get hit flush? Would the blocking we had in 1996 have gotten that done?

[Kmlwx]

49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I know but the sun angle might help it stay on the ground longer.  Who wants 1-3 melted by noon

Sun angle still melts the snow with alarming speed even in late December if the sun is out right after a snow event. Definitely not challenging you - so hope you're not taking it that way. My point is, the only tried and true way to get "long lasting" snow cover is either to get a huge quantity of snow, or some sort of "cap" on the snow cover like a sleet or ice layer. I've even seen snow melt during the day with temps at like 25 or below if the sun is out. 

Give me January, big snow storm, no big warm up right after and a sleety storm to top it off. 

1-3" will be gone quick unless you time a vodka cold airmass right after it. 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now if you would...and apologies if I'm sounding a bit jumbled...

I'm trying to figure out visually what is required blocking-wise to get what we got in 1996.

Let's say we compare the December 2010 heartbreaker with the blizzard of 96.

Now visually...I remember the snowfall predictions of Dec. 2010 being increased on the northeast part of the map. What would have needed to happen to push that storm much further southwest so that we get hit flush? Would the blocking we had in 1996 have gotten that done?

There are macro level patterns that are conducive for snow here. But within that there are micro level details that can determine hits v close misses. I could show you some big hits and near miss h5 plots and you couldn’t tell the difference!  Chaos has a hand in this. That said Nina’s tend to be an issue because the stj is suppressed and it’s NS dominant. And that means 2 issues. Most storms, even with blocking, are later developing because  they usually are cut off from deep moisture until they hit the coast. As the Furthest west  of the northeast regions that disadvantages us. Second it’s hard to get the NS to dig under us enough. As the furthest south of the typical snow regions...you get the idea. So Baltimore has a marginally better shot that DC. Philly marginally better than Baltimore. NYC better than Philly and by the time you get to Boston Nina’s often are awesome there!  
 

But you aren’t going to pick up on any of the micro level details that determine Jan 1996 from Dec 2010 from any kind of range. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I was just having a little fun with it. December isn't that far away now, so its worth casually watching these models over the next couple months to see whats being offered up for a general long wave pattern. We know the CFS vacillates from one end of the spectrum to the other at this range, but if we start to see more favorable than unfavorable looks, it will at least keep hope alive for awhile.

I know, and I know you know everything I’m saying. Just adding not refuting anything!

[psuhoffman]

 

comparing  the week leading up to 1996

and 2010

the pure high lat block was better in 2010. The blocking in 1996 had weakened some and shifted centered west of Hudson by January. But what made that work was the monster ideally located 50/50 low and that the trough axis was perfect just to our west and centered far enough south to get some stj involvement despite the Nina. Very rare.  2010 the blocking was better but a less ideal trough axis and 50/50. But it still could have worked except there was a weird messy phase between the initial gulf wave and the NS that initially suppressed the wave to our south then pulled into the NS too late for us. It could have ended better with better timing. Problem is we need more to go perfect here being further southwest than Philly-Boston. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

My target for snow is Jan-Feb. Sun angle is not the huge deal that many people make it out to be. January is our climo coldest period, and February has a higher probability of the huge HECS type storms. 

Don't get me wrong, I love December snow too - but we can accumulate fine in January and into February with heavy snow - and it will even stick around for a while if it's a big enough storm and isn't followed quickly by 60-70 degree temps. Helps if there's a nice crusty layer on top of course. 

Not directed at you - but I think people forget easily that lowest sun angle does not equal climo coldest. Just like how June 21st is not our climo warmest day of the year. 

Would love to see a 6"-10" Christmas snowstorm this year. Something that covers the ground. It starts right at sunrise and goes all day. Then clears out just after sunset and you get the see that stars. That alone would be great.

[nj2va]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would love to see a 6"-10" Christmas snowstorm this year. Something that covers the ground. It starts right at sunrise and goes all day. Then clears out just after sunset and you get the see that stars. That alone would be great.

Winter automatically would get a B at least. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

My memory of the 96 storm is different. I remember it as a storm that formed in the western gulf that rode up through Georgia and the Carolinas and then off the coast. I don’t remember the 2010 storm being anything like that. I of course could have a faulty memory.

I should edit that to say I remember the 2010 storm as an eastern gulf, off the east coast late developer.

[BristowWx]

48 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Winter automatically would get a B at least. 

6-10 on Xmas day would be historic.  Not sure it’s ever happened at any of the 3 airports. There is always a first time 

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My memory of the 96 storm is different. I remember it as a storm that formed in the western gulf that rode up through Georgia and the Carolinas and then off the coast. I don’t remember the 2010 storm being anything like that. I of course could have a faulty memory.

I should edit that to say I remember the 2010 storm as an eastern gulf, off the east coast late developer.

The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.

[nj2va]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.

 

I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard?  Or do I have the wrong storm?

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard?  Or do I have the wrong storm?

One of the best I recall for central MD. I was living in Columbia then and was a little disappointed when we got a foot and then dryslotted, but I went to bed and the backside dropped another foot overnight.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 

I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard?  Or do I have the wrong storm?

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

One of the best I recall for central MD. I was living in Columbia then and was a little disappointed when we got a foot and then dryslotted, but I went to bed and the backside dropped another foot overnight.

It was a really good storm for a large area. Too much sleet at the height along/east of I-95 though. Made up for it with the great CCB snows on the backside.

[nj2va]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

Oh, that #$#%ing storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

I get Vietnam-esque flashbacks from that event.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I get Vietnam-esque flashbacks from that event.

I am so glad I wasn't on this board back then...because I really was not aware of what the models had been showing a few days before! I mean the miss still hurt, but it's just not as vivid...so ignorance was bliss, lol But knowing what I do now about ninas...I woulda never trusted that until it was a maxium of 12 hours away!

[nw baltimore wx]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I am so glad I wasn't on this board back then...because I really was not aware of what the models had been showing a few days before! I mean the miss still hurt, but it's just not as vivid...so ignorance was bliss, lol But knowing what I do now about ninas...I woulda never trusted that until it was a maxium of 12 hours away!

We were overconfident coming off of the winter of 09-10.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I am so glad I wasn't on this board back then...because I really was not aware of what the models had been showing a few days before! I mean the miss still hurt, but it's just not as vivid...so ignorance was bliss, lol But knowing what I do now about ninas...I woulda never trusted that until it was a maxium of 12 hours away!

Actually bathetic didn’t show much at all but about a day before all of a sudden the gfs and others jumped in and showed a big event and then just as promptly started taking it away.

We were duped

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually bathetic didn’t show much at all but about a day before all of a sudden the gfs and others jumped in and showed a big event and then just as promptly started taking it away.

We were duped

Bathetic? Lol

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We were overconfident coming off of the winter of 09-10.  

This  

We thought we had become NNE lol.

My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about  30 miles from getting nothing.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

This  

We thought we had become NNE lol.

My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about  30 miles from getting nothing.

I wasn’t mad then either, but I’m mad now that that was the last time we had a winter! 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn’t mad then either, but I’m mad now that that was the last time we had a winter! 

What do you mean, dude? Lol

[nj2va]

It seems like we’re due for a fluke event this winter (this is 100% unscientific but probably more accurate than those lame seasonal models/weeklies).

[psuhoffman]

2010 wasn’t a typical Nina fail. It wasn’t a late developing northern stream system. It was a big snow in the TN valley and NC with plenty of gulf moisture. But if I remember correctly a couple details screwed us. The upper level low was really broad and the base of the trough dug a bit too deep them swung around too wide right for us.  On top of that there was a weak northern stream wave that came across right in front of it that may have helped to initially suppressed the gulf system until it was too far east to help us. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 wasn’t a typical Nina fail. It wasn’t a late developing northern stream system. It was a big snow in the TN valley and NC with plenty of gulf moisture. But if I remember correctly a couple details screwed us. The upper level low was really broad and the base of the trough dug a bit too deep them swung around too wide right for us.  On top of that there was a weak northern stream wave that came across right in front of it that may have helped to initially suppressed the gulf system until it was too far east to help us. 

That winter missed by an eyelash of being a really good one. There were January and Feb near misses too. There was also the good clipper that missed us to the south in December.

Id take my chances with those types of opportunities again.

[MrFreeze6298]

Hello I'm French I would like to know that it is the coldest states in the USA please.