BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 This is an interesting chart posted from Perspecta showing record snowfall across North America in October! Also notice other years with high values. What I find strange is most high values seem to be ninos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 @psuhoffman will be happy. Adds more ammunition to the very warm and potentially snow-less winter of 20-21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 On 11/4/2020 at 12:59 PM, frd said: @psuhoffman will be happy. Adds more ammunition to the very warm and potentially snow-less winter of 20-21 Expand If the CFS is correct, very strong easterlies return across the ENSO regions in mid to late November, this would support another robust round of La Niña strengthening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf Just in case you need background as to what a rising QBO value MAY mean for our winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 11” DCA. 12-13 suburbs Dec -2 Jan 0 to -1 Feb +5 cold 12/7-1/15 then winter over Where can find Deck Pic and Isotherm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 5:05 AM, WEATHER53 said: 11” DCA. 12-13 suburbs Dec -2 Jan 0 to -1 Feb +5 cold 12/7-1/15 then winter over Where can find Deck Pic and Isotherm? Expand Is this KA''s outlook, Howard? Tom will be posting within the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 1:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is this KA''s outlook, Howard? Tom will be posting within the next few days. Expand I think this is Howard's outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 3:43 PM, ravensrule said: I think this is Howard's outlook. Expand I think it maybe a bit too cold in December and especially January, but like it otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 6:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired. Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots. Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did. Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 6:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Expand Ray we don’t put Keith’s out because the new service we are with has some paying vendors that use it. Ray think that some of those guys who we met way back then at beginning who were barely 20 are now 35-40 years old! I was just 47 or so when first got into weather boards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 8:10 PM, WEATHER53 said: Ray we don’t put Keith’s out because the new service we are with has some paying vendors that use it. Ray think that some of those guys who we met way back then at beginning who were barely 20 are now 35-40 years old! I was just 47 or so when first got into weather boards Expand I know....been 15 years for me! I was 25 Our outlooks seem pretty similar, though you are a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Euro Seasonal is a Hot Mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 is there a panic room thread for 2020-21 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 On 11/6/2020 at 3:09 AM, JakkelWx said: is there a panic room thread for 2020-21 yet Expand We're past panic. Now its just acceptance and on to 2021-2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 +1.5 for around DC is not torch and will be some cold just not majority 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 On 11/6/2020 at 2:48 AM, cbmclean said: Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack. Expand Let's hope, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 On 11/6/2020 at 2:48 AM, cbmclean said: Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack. Expand Of course --- NWP never verifies when it shows good for us, but modeled bad setups always verify 100%! IIRC, this time last year we had exactly that: no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. NWP and most outlooks were calling for a great winter with lots of potential. Signs looked great going into last winter, and that turned into a disaster. So maybe things look terrible going into this winter, but there's still plenty of time and luck for the reality to turn out at least mediocre (which would surpass last year) or get us somewhat close to median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Things have changed over last 20-25 years. ENSO used to be the supreme determinator. It no longer is. Mid Atlantic for sure needs a favorable cold air delivery set up more than ever but the rest of the indexes and SSW and such is still largely unproven and the addition or deletion of one into a combo of other indexes throws the whole package off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The NWS forecast discussions out of Sterling are about to get more interesting - for snow lovers https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 On 11/9/2020 at 2:31 AM, dallen7908 said: The NWS forecast discussions out of Sterling are about to get more interesting - for snow lovers https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer Expand Didn't lwx already forecast for them? It looks to me like Pittsburgh is being removed for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 My winter outlook has been posted on the main board, which links to it, for those interested: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Maybe I should read it before I “Like” it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 On 11/10/2020 at 5:23 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Maybe I should read it before I “Like” it. Expand Avert your eyes. It's uglier than me in a XXX movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 At DCA, prior to 2000 only 10% of winters had <10" of snow. Since 2000, 50% of winters have been below 10" of snow. The trends are undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 On 11/10/2020 at 7:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said: At DCA, prior to 2000 only 10% of winters had <10" of snow. Since 2000, 50% of winters have been below 10" of snow. The trends are undeniable. Expand You wouldn’t happen to have a table of those would you? I like looking at stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 On 11/10/2020 at 8:00 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You wouldn’t happen to have a table of those would you? I like looking at stats Expand No this was a line item in a presentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 I just viewed isotherm’s winter forecast. As usual well thought out and probably right. Much below normal snowfall for me. And February is an all out furnace. Winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 On 11/10/2020 at 9:45 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: I just viewed isotherm’s winter forecast. As usual well thought out and probably right. Much below normal snowfall for me. And February is an all out furnace. Winter cancel? Expand I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 JB was going for a warm winter with below normal snow but then he got more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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