CAPE Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Damn, the opinions of BAMWx got some people shook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Fwiw, GEFS/extended GEFS still depicting increasing h5 heights up top in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 ^that looks nice but I’d be happy to kick the can on a decent pattern until mid-late December. Want to get the coldest possible rain.. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 1:58 AM, nw baltimore wx said: I’m confused. What’s the big deal with a spiking positive AO in November? It seems to me that it would be a waste if the AO was to dive negative in mid November when our climatology says we don’t get snow. We never do wall to wall winter, so I’d rather it be bad in November and recover for our Christmas blizzard. . edited to note beaten to the punch. Expand The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/28/2020 at 8:45 PM, frd said: If I recall correctly last November provided the old reliable head fake with a rather - AO. The real move up with the AO did not take place until December I believe. Expand This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 11:38 AM, WxUSAF said: ^that looks nice but I’d be happy to kick the can on a decent pattern until mid-late December. Want to get the coldest possible rain.. Expand Why 33 and rain when you can 32.000000001 and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 12:44 PM, snowman19 said: This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign: Expand I think you should say this in a slightly different way a few times everyday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Heh. I laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Topper’s winter snow map (WUSA DC 9)..would take it in a minute!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 4:28 PM, Weather Will said: Topper’s winter snow map (WUSA DC 9)..would take it in a minute!!! Expand Good Lord....From 30" - 40" in Cumberland to ZERO in Oakland. INSANE GRADIENT! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 5:22 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Good Lord....From 30" - 40" in Cumberland to ZERO in Oakland. INSANE GRADIENT! Expand Guess WISP will be my spot this winter for golfing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 4:28 PM, Weather Will said: Topper’s winter snow map (WUSA DC 9)..would take it in a minute!!! Expand What was his call last winter? I mean I will take that no problemo but just wondering. I bet it’s in our last year’s posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I saw that map and thought it was snow total for a single storm. ROFL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 7:15 PM, Stormfly said: I saw that map and thought it was snow total for a single storm. ROFL! Expand You saying that just put our winter situation in perspective. Of course just takes one good hit early in the season to blow that out of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 7:47 PM, BristowWx said: You saying that just put our winter situation in perspective. Of course just takes one good hit early in the season to blow that out of the water. Expand 2009-10... December, then Jan was warm and Feb came along. So yes. Have to wonder if we'll ever see another year like that in our lifetimes. The best events just seemingly come out of nowhere. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 8:42 PM, Stormfly said: 2009-10... December, then Jan was warm and Feb came along. So yes. Have to wonder if we'll ever see another year like that in our lifetimes. The best events just seemingly come out of nowhere. ;-) Expand Might want to check those stats on Jan 2010. It was nearly 3 degrees below normal here. Not too snowy until the end though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 You're right, replace warm with snow drought and it would be correct. ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 9:54 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Might want to check those stats on Jan 2010. It was nearly 3 degrees below normal here. Not too snowy until the end though. Expand Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Meanwhile, Boston suburbs are starting winter with a solid over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 On 10/30/2020 at 5:32 PM, WxUSAF said: Meanwhile, Boston suburbs are starting winter with a solid over performer. Expand BOS observer near the water is slant sticking. Can we have this person train the DCA observer since they apparently know how to measure properly near water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I haven't been through the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter. it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina whether it's moderate or strong … only reaches that intensity for short interval of time - DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps on weatherbell and weathermodels sites along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America. Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Thanks for checking in DT. I’m not sure about the Nina intensity, but I do agree that the very warm NPAC coupled with the Nina is pretty unusual and may throw a wrench in things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 On 10/30/2020 at 8:41 PM, DTWXRISK said: I haven't been through the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter. it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina whether it's moderate or strong … only reaches that intensity for short interval of time - DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps on weatherbell and weathermodels sites along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America. Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. Expand Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 12:39 AM, Mr. Kevin said: Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? Expand In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 1:06 AM, IUsedToHateCold said: Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. Expand Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 12:09 PM, frd said: Exactly, fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts. Expand Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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