Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Latest CanSIPS

To be expected in a Nina , whether it is correct not sure. 

 

Curious to see what the new 500 mb anomalies look like. Probably be available in 2-3 days.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I see clippers and gradient setups in our future. And my favorite, cutters into CAD

[BristowWx]

Gotta admit the canSIPS made me smile.  A smile that will probably be turned upside down.  

[CAPE]

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. 

Fwiw ofc.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. 

Fwiw ofc.

The GEFS and CFS both keep the pv along the normal growth trajectory during the next 35 to 45 days . Just saying, because it means very  little, but interesting to follow along and see how this turns out a month from now. 

[RDM]

FWIW -     https://www.yahoo.com/news/accuweathers-2020-2021-us-winter-162219383.html    

 

 

[CAPE]

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top.

Temp anomalies for DJF-

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top.

Temp anomalies for DJF-

2 weeks of winter in late November to early December then we firmly get implanted on Nina pattern and roast . Accuweather with similar thoughts. As you might have read they feel winter could come in early and then moderation.  They are going with typical Nina Climo. Nothing we didnt know already. 

[nj2va]

On 9/29/2020 at 5:11 PM, BristowWx said:

Gotta admit the canSIPS made me smile.  A smile that will probably be turned upside down.  

You’re able to tell the future. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

2 weeks of winter in late November to early December then we firmly get implanted on Nina pattern and roast . Accuweather with similar thoughts. As you might have read they feel winter could come in early and then moderation.  They are going with typical Nina Climo. Nothing we didnt know already. 

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

We could still get a more poleward pac ridge this winter...but if we don’t I think some people are convincing themselves “well at least it won’t be as bad as last winter” when that’s exactly what it could be. Maybe DC lucks it’s way to a fluke inch or two of snow somewhere but if we get a Nina driven flat pac ridge and a +NAO is going to be very similar to last year.  One trend within our snowfall climo that’s apparent (and makes sense given warning) is that while the frequency of big years and the snowfall in those years isn’t decreasing...our crap years are getting worse. When it’s bad it’s REALLY bad.  We are spending longer periods in shut out the lights no hope patterns. What used to be crappy 9” snowfall seasons become crappy 1-2” snowfall seasons.  Luckily when we do get cold periods we seem to hit more often now. I can find lots of cold periods without much snow historically. Recently when we get the cold we tend to get some snow. That could also be a product of warning and increased storms along the baroclinic boundaries. But that won’t save us when the entire conus is flooded with pac puke air all winter long.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We could still get a more poleward pac ridge this winter...but if we don’t I think some people are convincing themselves “well at least it won’t be as bad as last winter” when that’s exactly what it could be. Maybe DC lucks it’s way to a fluke inch or two of snow somewhere but if we get a Nina driven flat pac ridge and a +NAO is going to be very similar to last year.  One trend within our snowfall climo that’s apparent (and makes sense given warning) is that while the frequency of big years and the snowfall in those years isn’t decreasing...our crap years are getting worse. When it’s bad it’s REALLY bad.  We are spending longer periods in shut out the lights no hope patterns. What used to be crappy 9” snowfall seasons become crappy 1-2” snowfall seasons.  Luckily when we do get cold periods we seem to hit more often now. I can find lots of cold periods without much snow historically. Recently when we get the cold we tend to get some snow. That could also be a product of warning and increased storms along the baroclinic boundaries. But that won’t save us when the entire conus is flooded with pac puke air all winter long.

It may not necessarily help much in the snowfall department, but I will bet against JF being as warm as they were last season and will most likely be right, regardless of the pattern. That was highly anomalous....even considering global warming.

[Rhino16]

We’re rapidly approaching digital snow season. This was one of last year’s early digital GFs snowstorms... from October 26th

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It may not necessarily help much in the snowfall department, but I will bet against JF being as warm as they were last season and will most likely be right, regardless of the pattern. That was highly anomalous....even considering global warming.

I agree but when DCs avg high is 45 even in mid winter it won’t matter if we are +5 instead of +8 for a particular day/week/month for our snowfall prospects. It might make a big difference up your way though!  
 

I am also not saying I think we end up with a repeat of last winter. I’m still not sure which Nina scenario we go towards but I do think I hedge towards the more hostile flat pac ridge option. But it’s not a sure thing. And even if we get the hostile base state we could get a 2000 type outcome where a 10 day anomaly with some luck within an overall seasonal crap pattern saved us. But...I do think a repeat of last year (wrt DC snowfall) is within the realistic realms here. Those convincing themselves this HAS to be better are setting themselves up for a world of hurt if it’s not. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’ll wager, literally, with anyone that we average colder than last year with more snow. That’s a very safe bet because that bar is very low.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll wager, literally, with anyone that we average colder than last year with more snow. That’s a very safe bet because that bar is very low.

It is a good bet. But I think the chances of a close result is higher than people want to admit.   Maybe 20% given the current pac, atl, and HL patterns. And the chances it’s better but not as much better as people want is like 50% imo.  Right now it’s easy to comfort yourself with the thought “it has to be better”. But if that person gets 6” instead of the 1.5” last year....from say a 2” clipper and a couple 1-2” front end slop washed away by rain storms will they really feel good about it?   I highly doubt it. But that kind of “better” is a high probability. 

[frd]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Right now it’s easy to comfort yourself with the thought “it has to be better”.

I see no real reason why it has to be better than last year. Could be another very poor winter if you are after cold and snow. Of course, as we have seen the last few years, there could be a fluke event within a period of cold that turns the stats toward , "wow that winter wasn't so bad,we got a lot of snow"  , I give you 2016 for example. A one hit wonder, or fluke if you may. 

It would certainly appear more likely that if you want to venture a forecast going with a false start to winter seems a decent idea at the moment. I would think maybe something along the progression of last year. Whether it is in November or December, remains to be seen. Would have to think earlier versus later. I based this on upon SST forcing to our North, ie. less sea ice, and the still evolving and growing Nina. Whatever favorable elements can happen , would occur early in my opinion.

There is talk among some mets, and seasonal modeling, that the coming winter will be back loaded. We thought that would happen last year but it did not , blocking came together too late and brought a cold portion of spring. In March 2018,  that was back loaded with the mother of NAO blocks and  brought us a memorable late period of snow and cold to our region.     

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree but when DCs avg high is 45 even in mid winter it won’t matter if we are +5 instead of +8 for a particular day/week/month for our snowfall prospects. It might make a big difference up your way though!  
 

I am also not saying I think we end up with a repeat of last winter. I’m still not sure which Nina scenario we go towards but I do think I hedge towards the more hostile flat pac ridge option. But it’s not a sure thing. And even if we get the hostile base state we could get a 2000 type outcome where a 10 day anomaly with some luck within an overall seasonal crap pattern saved us. But...I do think a repeat of last year (wrt DC snowfall) is within the realistic realms here. Those convincing themselves this HAS to be better are setting themselves up for a world of hurt if it’s not. 

Well, it doesn't HAVE to be...but it would be a historical anomaly...at least at BWI. Looking up and down the record, there have never been two consecutive winters where we got less than 2 inches. That would be a new historic level of fail--even for here--if that happened. Following our lowest winters, there was always an uptick of some sort...would often be like 6-8 inches, and one time 17", and once was above average with 24 inches (1992-93) So definitely no history of it...and let's hope things stay that way 

[frd]

31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 So definitely no history of it..

 

Are we not in a new era ?

In my opinion winter analogs present little value currently, and there is a tendency for the warmer climate to our South to be nudging North.  Saying we are due for an average winter,  or there is no history of something is not a wise train of thought. We could go multiple years with a few inches of snow or a fluke blizzard may hit us. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Are we not in a new era ?

In my opinion winter analogs present little value currently, and there is a tendency for the warmer climate to our South to be nudging North.  Saying we are due for an average winter,  or there is no history of something is not a wise train of thought. We could go multiple years with a few inches of snow or a fluke blizzard may hit us. 

 

I think it’s a little early for the new era. When would you say this new era began? And even if the global climate is different, have we already nailed down the local climate impacts? How big is the data set? I’m old enough to remember some crap winters in the early 70’s, late 80’s, early 90’s and late 90’s. I remember being a kid riding a new bike in 70 degree temps in Christmas Day somewhere around 1970. 
 

Winter can go on runs of terrible. This isn’t the first time it’s ever happened.

[frd]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it’s a little early for the new era. When would you say this new era began?

I know it is early,  but I go with 2015-2016 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Are we not in a new era ?

In my opinion winter analogs present little value currently, and there is a tendency for the warmer climate to our South to be nudging North.  Saying we are due for an average winter,  or there is no history of something is not a wise train of thought. We could go multiple years with a few inches of snow or a fluke blizzard may hit us. 

 

Never said we were due for average...6 inches is still below average or median, lol But just speaking to having two 1-inch winters in a row has never happened, that's all. So "better" in a sense of not being in the bottom barrel of 2 inches...

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Never said we were due for average...6 inches is still below average or median, lol But just speaking to having two 1-inch winters in a row has never happened, that's all. So "better" in a sense of not being in the bottom barrel of 2 inches...

2011 to 2013 came close.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

2011 to 2013 came close.

Not so much at BWI...looks like we got 14", 1.8", and then 8"...so still no back-to-back

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not so much at BWI...looks like we got 14", 1.8", and then 8"...so still no back-to-back

You’re missing my point. Will Baltimore get another 1-2” winter?  Probably not. That takes a god awful pattern and bad luck!  But if we get a similar pattern and end up with 6” from a few very minor events you really going to feel better?  I have my doubts. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re missing my point. Will Baltimore get another 1-2” winter?  Probably not. That takes a god awful pattern and bad luck!  But if we get a similar pattern and end up with 6” from a few very minor events you really going to feel better?  I have my doubts. 

Yeah I hear your point there...just splitting hairs a little 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, frd said:

I know it is early,  but I go with 2015-2016 

That’s a 4 year data set. Not sure I’d draw too many conclusions from that.

But hey I’m just posting thoughts not trying to challenge your ideas. You are a valuable contributor here.

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s a 4 year data set. Not sure I’d draw too many conclusions from that.

But hey I’m just posting thoughts not trying to challenge your ideas. You are a valuable contributor here.

Yeah not sure that's a large enough sample size. 16-17 and 17-18 were both ninas, 18-19 at least brought most in the area to climo with the Dec and Jan storms, and of course 19-20 was a torchfest. That just seems like a random mixed bag, we've certainly had multiple instances of that within even the 21st century, a good bit in the 80s/90s too. Considering how much of a distinct lack of sustained blocking we've had since 10-11 I'd say that maybe that was when the flip was switched, but what do I know I guess. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

39 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah not sure that's a large enough sample size. 16-17 and 17-18 were both ninas, 18-19 at least brought most in the area to climo with the Dec and Jan storms, and of course 19-20 was a torchfest. That just seems like a random mixed bag, we've certainly had multiple instances of that within even the 21st century, a good bit in the 80s/90s too. Considering how much of a distinct lack of sustained blocking we've had since 10-11 I'd say that maybe that was when the flip was switched, but what do I know I guess. 

But isn’t there some evidence out there that the NAO and perhaps the AO operate on decadal cycles? CAPE  and PSU would know this. If so what’s happening could just be part of that.

IMO, 18-19 was a decent winter, at least here. The other 4 were bad, with last year being a lol joke. But before that 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15 were decent to extremely good winters. Again speaking for mby. So if I get on average 6 of 11 winters that are good, I’m gonna be ok with that.

[nj2va]

10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll wager, literally, with anyone that we average colder than last year with more snow. That’s a very safe bet because that bar is very low.

I think I finished with 1” last year in Arlington. I agree - I don’t see us doing worse than that here.