Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

Post better work 

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

What your data showed was that of the last 5 Nina’s with a cold October none had above avg snowfall and only 2 had median. 
 

Here is the DCA snowfall in the last 5 “non cold” October Nina’s. 
13.6, 4.9, 10.1, 3.4, 7.8

None above normal snow. 2/5 median. Same probabilities. Your data is fine but all it shows is how crappy a Nina is, not any correlation to October temps as a predictor of just how crappy. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, PCT_ATC said:

open your mind Luke..  use the force.  i understood what PSU was getting at.  lets not create hostile environments already.  Its only September!  Save that for late February when the sun angle folks start to raise their voice.

Heck no. Let’s have a meltdown now. Get this off to a good start.

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely 

I need to get on the payroll. Tired of sending you business for free!

[IUsedToHateCold]

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. 

The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. 

Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

28 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. 

The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. 

Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

 

I have always felt the Pacific is the dominant player because we are downstream of it. We may need blocking to get big snows but with a +PNA at least we are usually cold with at worst chances for small events and less likely to have a complete crap bucket of a winter like last year.

[Snowstorms]

Going through this thread, I did not know how hard it is for most of the Mid Atl. to get some decent snow. Granted I would love to experience a blizzard like Jan 2016, Dec 2010 or Feb 2010. We don't get storms like that up this way. It's crazy how many variables need to come together for you guys to get even half decent snow. 

Up here we prefer La Nina's > El Nino's but that doesn't mean El Nino's are bad either. For example, our snowiest Nov is an El Nino (1940), our snowiest Dec is an El Nino (1951) and our 2nd snowiest Jan is also an El Nino (1966).  Our top 2 coldest winters ever (DJF) are also El Nino's (1976-77 and 1969-70). However, our top 3 snowiest winters on record are La Nina's (1937-38, 1949-50 and 2007-08). Records go back to 1937 at the airport. 

But believe it or not our least snowiest winter on record is a La Nina (2011-12). 2009-10, the golden winter for Mid Atl., ended up as the 2nd least snowiest winter on record here.  Two different ENSOs but with the same outcome. We can do pretty good here sometimes regardless of ENSO state. Even 1995-96 we nickeled and dimed our way up to 59" (14" above avg). 

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 it’s so early for me.
 

I want a good winter for everyone but it just doesn’t look great right now. Niñas are great for tropical but not so much for winter, especially down there. 

I see what you did there.

Its early, so visions of a Nina with blocking are still dancing in weenie heads.. It wont be long before every piece of guidance known to man shows a massive blob of blue up top. It will be all the sweeter. Patience.

[snowman19]

Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum: 

 

[frd]

 

Another interesting reflection from grit regarding AO and the NAO both being negative ( .40 or lower ) during the period Dec to March since 1990. 

 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Another interesting reflection from grit regarding AO and the NAO both being negative ( .40 or lower ) during the period Dec to March since 1990. 

 

Where's that Prince emote? lol

This was posted on the previous page, and yes interesting stuff.

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum: 

 

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. 
Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite.  The other 2 years were nothing like 1996!  Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996?  Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though.  That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.  

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. 
Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite.  The other 2 years were nothing like 1996!  Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996?  Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though.  That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.  

Nice post. Good info.

You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

[psuhoffman]

Sometimes it’s hard to accept we just can’t “know” something. But instead of focusing on the specifics we don’t know there is a lot we do. It’s very likely we’re heading towards a solid weak to moderate Nina. That also means it’s highly likely we get a suppressed STJ and an active northern stream dominant winter. Regardless of details that’s usually a dryer than normal look here. We will see a lot of those “precip hole” maps with  emojis as the mountains eat up what little moisture those NS systems from the west have and they draw in Atlantic moisture too late to do us any good.  We all know the drill.
 

What we don’t yet know...is exactly the orientation and extent of the pacific ridge. If it’s flat we are very likely looking at a similar pattern to last winter. Even that doesn’t mean it AS BAD as last winter. There were some opportunities early that DC missed. And maybe there is one or two less hostile periods and DC lucks out.  But it would be another very mild and likely much below normal snowfall winter. 

On the other hand if the pac ridge extends poleward more we will likely see more arctic air intrusions into the eastern US and while it’s still going to be a struggle without the STJ, we have a better shot of lucking into some snow and eeking close to a median winter.  
 

There is always the crazy long shot possibility that due to some factor we can’t foresee an anomaly happens. 1996 for example. Or more realistically 1999/2000!  That was a god awful pattern the whole winter but we got a 10 day period with great blocking and cashed in big time. Flukes like that cannot be predicted but they can happen. 
 

That’s my take on where we are. I don’t want to stop anyone from speculating or trying to drill down on the details. I love the discussion.  So don’t think I’m trying to squash it. But imo it’s risky when you drill down so much you’re using 3 seasons (And 1 of those skews the mean) to make generalizations about the expected pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice post. Good info.

You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

Thank you...

We all have our roles to play 

[Weather Will]

I enjoy reading from the experts but something tells me 2020 has a few more surprises up its sleeve...should be an interesting last three months in more ways than one....

[Stormfly]

Surprises are the best.

A redux of 2010, OTOH, as much as I didn't enjoy plowing that much snow off the lane, I have to say I could go for that!

This is one of my favorite shots.  I took this looking back up towards the house after making a few passes.  The piles of snow were close to 14' high!

 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Surprises are the best.

A redux of 2010, OTOH, as much as I didn't enjoy plowing that much snow off the lane, I have to say I could go for that!

This is one of my favorite shots.  I took this looking back up towards the house after making a few passes.  The piles of snow were close to 14' high!

 

Man are you tryin' activate traumatic memories around here?? It's nearly ten years later and that's still too soon dude, lol

[Kmlwx]

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? 

This is for the Tue/Wed event. 

[Stormfly]

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man are you tryin' activate traumatic memories around here?? It's nearly ten years later and that's still too soon dude, lol

Going on 11 years, and 2-3 year frequency would be fine.  I know I'm about 500 miles too far south and east but still...

It's been nearly 27 years since we had ice over snow so thick it could be driven on...

Those are fun, countless hours of donuts @WOT on the four wheelers without risk of dying (most winters ponds freeze solid but only a handful get thick enough to assure breakthrough risk is nearly non existent).

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Going on 11 years, and 2-3 year frequency would be fine.  I know I'm about 500 miles too far south and east but still...

It's been nearly 27 years since we had ice over snow so thick it could be driven on...

Those are fun, countless hours of donuts @WOT on the four wheelers without risk of dying (most winters ponds freeze solid but only a handful get thick enough to assure breakthrough risk is nearly non existent).

 

Wait which part if 2010 were you referring to? The actual winter of 2009-10, or the December 2010 (boxing day) storm?

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? 

This is for the Tue/Wed event. 

No

[snowman19]

21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. 
Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite.  The other 2 years were nothing like 1996!  Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996?  Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though.  That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.  

It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward?  Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward?  Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now

@psuhoffman I think another wildcard for winter that HM keeps mentioning is the wildfires’ effects on the stratosphere....

[Stormfly]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait which part if 2010 were you referring to? The actual winter of 2009-10, or the December 2010 (boxing day) storm?

Feb 10, 2010, the second storm in the back to back blizzards of 2010.

Storms like those are somewhat rare for us but they do happen as you know.  Maybe 2021 will give us PDIII. :-D

09-10 was definitely a good winter, well remembered.  Of course the majority of the snow was gone by Christmas in 2009 which was a bummer.
I remember reaching the riding trails for the first time after those storms and still managed to high center my diesel Arctic Cat!  That was March 09.10 and evidence of 20' plus drifts were present which isn't surprising when the wind has 250 acres of barren field to rip through until it reaches the tree line full of mature spruce and balsam pines.

[yoda]

 

[frd]

Latest CanSIPS

To be expected in a Nina , whether it is correct not sure. 

 

[snowman19]

Honestly can’t remember how long it’s been since ENSO region 4 was this cold. The models showing a moderate peak in December are looking more and more believable. I had doubts about the Niña getting beyond weak, those doubts are pretty much gone: 

[Stormfly]

Waiting for the worms to come!

 

[nj2va]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Latest CanSIPS

To be expected in a Nina , whether it is correct not sure. 

 

If I stare at it long enough, I can convince myself the purple line just makes it to Garrett County.