Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

You should get used to this possibility unless you plan to relocate. Or be more realistic with expectations and use median instead of mean.

There's not much difference between median and mea...just three inches, lol (median=15 and average=18 does it not?)  And dude...I AM trying to have realistic expectations. The heck do you think I'm trying to figure this out for? To figure out just what TO expect, because that definition has shifted since 2016. I'm not locked onto any solution or expectation...but yes, I am a bit concerned about having to wait more years in between than we've had to the last 30 years...it's a bit of a depressing prospect. Hoping for the best, though...

And no I can't relocate anytime soon (kinda how folks toss that around as if everybody can uproot their lives at the drop of a hat just for snow, lol)

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I've contemplated that argument about the strength (or lack thereof) of correlation...So you're better with statistics, so I'll just reiterate what I posted several months ago: I counted 11 solar minimums since 1902. Now...is 11 times still too small of a sample size? And if so...is the reason because there could've been some coincidences mixed in?

I made a post of the listed minimums and matched them up with the two winters that followed them. And each time...at least one of the two were above average except for the ones following the 1996 "bottom" (but that was the one time where the benefit came just before). Now is there something else to look at where we could gain more insight?

When you just glance at it there does seem to be a lot of big winters near minimums. But there are several factors that make me question the correlation when you look closer. 

First is the lack of timeframe consistency Wrt the minimum. Sometimes the effect was the year of the minimum (1964). Sometimes the year after (1987/2010).  Sometimes 2 years after???(1978).  Sometimes the year before (1996).  On top of that the way we got the “big winter” wasn’t always consistent. Sometimes it was a widespread cold snowy winter like 1978/1996. But 1987 wasn’t really a memorable winter anywhere except our local region.  That lack of consistency suggests more randomness than I’m comfortable with when establishing clear causality.
 

Third, if we’re going to stretch it to a 3 year window to make the correlation work you have to consider how much more often does a big winter occur than you would normally expect during a random 3 year window?  Let’s look at that closer.  More recently (last 40 years) the frequency of an above avg snow winter in Baltimore is more like 35%, but if we go back through the last 11 cycles it’s closer to 40%.  During that time the avg frequency of an above avg winter is every 2.5 winters.  That means most random 3 year periods would likely have one above avg winter just by random chance.  Not every one but the majority.  That makes this correlation potentially less impressive.   Furthermore you have to adjust for averages during different periods.  If we do that there was no big winter anywhere around the 1954 minimum.  There was a 22” winter which was avg for that period and it was a generally crappy winter across the area but BWI was a local max.   That seems a weak argument to count a year like that towards the correlation.  There was no big winter near the 1902 or 1913 minimums either.   The results leave us with slightly more above normal years than expected if random but only slightly.  Not enough to suggest strong causality probabilities.  
 

All that said doesn’t mean we can’t get a big snow year simply from my favorite weather (and life) correlation...  “shit happens” 

 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There's not much difference between median and mea...just three inches, lol (median=15 and average=18 does it not?)  And dude...I AM trying to have realistic expectations. The heck do you think I'm trying to figure this out for? To figure out just what TO expect, because that definition has shifted since 2016. I'm not locked onto any solution or expectation...but yes, I am a bit concerned about having to wait more years in between than we've had to the last 30 years...it's a bit of a depressing prospect. Hoping for the best, though...

And no I can't relocate anytime soon (kinda how folks toss that around as if everybody can uproot their lives at the drop of a hat just for snow, lol)

Baltimore’s new avg is 19.4 and median is 15.3 for 1991-2020.  But I think CAPEs point with expectations is valid. Baltimore has beaten median 2 of the last 4 years and 5/7. If you used median as your goal/expectation for a “good” winter you will be satisfied more frequently. If you use avg you will be disappointed about 70% of the time.  If median isn’t enough to be satisfied...well moving is the more realistic option vs expecting our climo to change.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Baltimore’s new avg is 19.4 and median is 15.3 for 1991-2020.  But I think CAPEs point with expectations is valid. Baltimore has beaten median 2 of the last 4 years and 5/7. If you used median as your goal/expectation for a “good” winter you will be satisfied more frequently. If you use avg you will be disappointed about 70% of the time.  If median isn’t enough to be satisfied...well moving is the more realistic option vs expecting our climo to change.  

Not expecting it to "change"...actually I'm dreading a change for the worse. Prior to this stretch, it seemed more predictable; every 3-5 years you were guaranteed to see one actual above average winter. But now...we are pushing that. 2016 will have been 5 years ago this winter. Looking at our records...only twice did we go more than 4-5 years without going above the 20" mark (that's a personal mark for me that separates good from great. I'm lowering the bar for "decent" to 18"). But point is, you could time it with a watch the last 30 years: 3-4 years...you get a 12" snowstorm, 6-7 years...a 2-footer. Before 1990...you still got above 20" every 3-4 years with or without one huge snowfall.

But now...I hear talk of that dang Hadley cell or whatever and I'm wondering it that's gonna muck up our climo and make snow even harder to get. So if anything, I'm fearing change in that direction...and I hope it won't go that way.

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not expecting it to "change"...actually I'm dreading a change for the worse. Prior to this stretch, it seemed more predictable; every 3-5 years you were guaranteed to see one actual above average winter. But now...we are pushing that. 2016 will have been 5 years ago this winter. Looking at our records...only twice did we go more than 4-5 years without going above the 20" mark (that's a personal mark for me that separates good from great. I'm lowering the bar for "decent" to 18"). But point is, you could time it with a watch the last 30 years: 3-4 years...you get a 12" snowstorm, 6-7 years...a 2-footer. Before 1990...you still got above 20" every 3-4 years with or without one huge snowfall.

But now...I hear talk of that dang Hadley cell or whatever and I'm wondering it that's gonna muck up our climo and make snow even harder to get. So if anything, I'm fearing change in that direction...and I hope it won't go that way.

Baltimore went over a decade without a 12" snowstorm twice, in the 40's and 50's and from 1968-1979.  Baltimore went 8 years without a 12" snowstorm from 1988-1995.  You were falling prey to recency bias in thinking a fluke of chance that recently there seemed to be a regularity or pattern to big snows in Baltimore was something that was likely to continue.  The fact it had been a long time since we had a long extended run without a big snowstorm simply meant we were due for such a thing.  I don't buy "were due" either but you could just as easily look at it that way as saying we are due for a snowstorm every 3/4 years!  As for 2 foot storms... well Baltimore can go multiple decades without a storm like that!  Again only recently have those occurred with such frequency and regularity.  Longer term evidence suggests more randomness to our big snowstorms.   Baltimore did have warning criteria snowstorms in March 18 and January 19 so it hasn't been that long since a "decent" snow event.  

[Snowy Hibbo]

My first seasonal prediction for the NH this season:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/09/06/early-september-seasonal-2020-21-winter-preliminary-outlook/

Western & Central US and the Northern Alps to benefit from a Canadian Vortex/Aleutian High and +NAO driven weather outlook for the winter ahead from the preliminary look of factors (still got more to look at in coming weeks...).

Not looking so good for the Eastern US under this pattern, climatic factors not stacking up well for the Mid-Atlantic.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

My first seasonal prediction for the NH this season:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/09/06/early-september-seasonal-2020-21-winter-preliminary-outlook/

Western & Central US and the Northern Alps to benefit from a Canadian Vortex/Aleutian High and +NAO driven weather outlook for the winter ahead from the preliminary look of factors (still got more to look at in coming weeks...).

Not looking so good for the Eastern US under this pattern, climatic factors not stacking up well for the Mid-Atlantic.

Nice overview based on the current data/climate guidance. A lot has to be in our favor for an average to above average snowfall season in the MA, outside of the western highlands. At this juncture, there really isn't much to like in that regard. Almost every major driver/index looks as if it will be the antithesis of what we need here. We had this situation last winter, and the worst possible outcome resulted. You mentioned the solar min, and I concur that is a nebulous influence, and will certainly not offset all the other factors that may align to inhibit the development of any persistent HL blocking. What we hope for are the inevitable variations in a mostly "bad" pattern, and a bit of luck to take advantage for a fluke event or 2. Since we had zero of that last winter, maybe we are due a little.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Phoenix broke it's all time Summer record by 2 degrees this year, not 0.2 or 0.4 degrees like other standings, and Alaska broke it's by 2 degrees last Summer. Now it's going to snow in Denver on 9-8 (Winter storm watch). Strong Pacific southern jet influence this year. 

[nj2va]

I’ll go 5-15” at home and 60-80” in McHenry. Both below average. 

[Subtropics]

On 9/4/2020 at 9:07 AM, psuhoffman said:

You are actually in a better spot to try to luck into a warning level snow in a Nina without blocking. You can catch the west edge of some progressive late developing storms like are common in a Nina. DC is just too far west. Heck even with blocking they miss a lot but it at least gives them a chance. All the decent Nina snows in DC had blocking help.  March 18, January 2011, March 2009, February 2006, Jan 2000, March 99, and all the 96 storms featured at least some blocking leading up to them.  

 

 

It's not even that DC is too west. We are too south and that is our biggest downfall. Plenty of places west do just fine. Albany gets 2010 accums every year.

[WinterWxLuvr]

27 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

It's not even that DC is too west. We are too south and that is our biggest downfall. Plenty of places west do just fine. Albany gets 2010 accums every year.

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity.

Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them?

And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity.

Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them?

And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

If I was walking down the street and some stranger said some crazy nonsense like that I would just keep walking. I think I need to live my internet life more like that...

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity.

Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them?

And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

I think this picture here should resolve all arguments about why our geography is bad during ninas:

Man THIS is nina at her worst here. An incredibly annoying topography lesson right here, lol (this was from March 2018 I believe...what I call the great lakes low SCREW-OVER )

[CAPE]

Ya gotta love the swings on the CFS runs. It now has HL blocking for DJF 

December with the epic 'savior' Baffin block. 

 

For January and Feb the Pacific actually looks decent plus the -NAO persists. The upcoming runs will trend back towards reality.

[snowman19]

On 9/5/2020 at 9:30 AM, frd said:

Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.  

 

Yea, the La Niña driven circulation theme is unanimous among all models for this winter. The new CANSIPS and Euro reflect that:  

 

[snowman19]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

CFS has sniffed it out! 

[JakkelWx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I'll take a front loaded winter if it means lots of snow and lucking out on a couple warning criteria snowstorms before summer begins in March

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I'll take a front loaded winter if it means lots of snow and lucking out on a couple warning criteria snowstorms before summer begins in March

The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter.  Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter.  Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.

This is exactly how it will happen.  But front loaded is cool with me.  Would rather snow in low sun period around holidays.  Waiting for the March miracle is fools gold. 

[Kmlwx]

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This is exactly how it will happen.  But front loaded is cool with me.  Would rather snow in low sun period around holidays.  Waiting for the March miracle is fools gold. 

My target for snow is Jan-Feb. Sun angle is not the huge deal that many people make it out to be. January is our climo coldest period, and February has a higher probability of the huge HECS type storms. 

Don't get me wrong, I love December snow too - but we can accumulate fine in January and into February with heavy snow - and it will even stick around for a while if it's a big enough storm and isn't followed quickly by 60-70 degree temps. Helps if there's a nice crusty layer on top of course. 

Not directed at you - but I think people forget easily that lowest sun angle does not equal climo coldest. Just like how June 21st is not our climo warmest day of the year. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I don’t think anyone would be shocked if November turns cold. It’s been a reoccurring theme for several years now, September and October end up warmer and drier than normal, then November flips colder and wetter than normal. Deja Vu.... 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I was walking down the street and some stranger said some crazy nonsense like that I would just keep walking. I think I need to live my internet life more like that...

Not sure if this post is directed at me or him lol

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Ya gotta love the swings on the CFS runs. It now has HL blocking for DJF 

December with the epic 'savior' Baffin block. 

 

For January and Feb the Pacific actually looks decent plus the -NAO persists. The upcoming runs will trend back towards reality.

We know day 15 scores are barely better than climo. So not shocking day 100+ is erratic and unreliable. But the models are based on sound physics. Despite what DT says they don’t show things that are physically impossible. Improbable maybe but not impossible. So what these random runs that show a colder winter paradigm say is that yes that outcome is still within the envelop of possibilities. We all know what what the likely outcome is given our Nina climo.  But still within the Nina set are anomalies (1904/5, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1995/96). And we don’t have a really good predictive answer for them. If you showed me all the data from early fall 1995 I wouldn’t have expected that. And I think sometimes the desire to figure it out leads to prescribing too much significance to one factor. Yea the QBO was going negative but we have had other Nina’s with a similar qbo that didn’t lead to that outcome. I think sometimes people are uncomfortable with uncertainty and just admitting “we don’t know”.  Odds favor the typical dud Nina. But maybe come March we are looking back wondering how no one saw that coming!  

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure if this post is directed at me or him lol

Him!  I almost made a similar reply to yours then stopped myself thinking...why am I going to stop to respond to the crazy guy screaming on the street corner soap box? 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We know day 15 scores are barely better than climo. So not shocking day 100+ is erratic and unreliable. But the models are based on sound physics. Despite what DT says they don’t show things that are physically impossible. Improbable maybe but not impossible. So what these random runs that show a colder winter paradigm say is that yes that outcome is still within the envelop of possibilities. We all know what what the likely outcome is given our Nina climo.  But still within the Nina set are anomalies (1904/5, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1995/96). And we don’t have a really good predictive answer for them. If you showed me all the data from early fall 1995 I wouldn’t have expected that. And I think sometimes the desire to figure it out leads to prescribing too much significance to one factor. Yea the QBO was going negative but we have had other Nina’s with a similar qbo that didn’t lead to that outcome. I think sometimes people are uncomfortable with uncertainty and just admitting “we don’t know”.  Odds favor the typical dud Nina. But maybe come March we are looking back wondering how no one saw that coming!  

Yeah I was just having a little fun with it. December isn't that far away now, so its worth casually watching these models over the next couple months to see whats being offered up for a general long wave pattern. We know the CFS vacillates from one end of the spectrum to the other at this range, but if we start to see more favorable than unfavorable looks, it will at least keep hope alive for awhile.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We know day 15 scores are barely better than climo. So not shocking day 100+ is erratic and unreliable. But the models are based on sound physics. Despite what DT says they don’t show things that are physically impossible. Improbable maybe but not impossible. So what these random runs that show a colder winter paradigm say is that yes that outcome is still within the envelop of possibilities. We all know what what the likely outcome is given our Nina climo.  But still within the Nina set are anomalies (1904/5, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1995/96). And we don’t have a really good predictive answer for them. If you showed me all the data from early fall 1995 I wouldn’t have expected that. And I think sometimes the desire to figure it out leads to prescribing too much significance to one factor. Yea the QBO was going negative but we have had other Nina’s with a similar qbo that didn’t lead to that outcome. I think sometimes people are uncomfortable with uncertainty and just admitting “we don’t know”.  Odds favor the typical dud Nina. But maybe come March we are looking back wondering how no one saw that coming!  

DT painted himself into the same corner JB did with his Niña/QBO argument several years ago. If he stands by his argument and the research he posted back then, he can’t go for a cold and snowy winter in the east with a +QBO or risk contradicting himself. Should be interesting to see what his forecast is, unless he finds some way around it. He has gone cold and snowy the last few winters in a row

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

DT painted himself into the same corner JB did with his Niña/QBO argument several years ago. If he stands by his argument and the research he posted back then, he can’t go for a cold and snowy winter in the east with a +QBO or risk contradicting himself. Should be interesting to see what his forecast is, unless he finds some way around it. He has gone cold and snowy the last few winters in a row

His data was pretty flawed as PSU pointed out. But what he was attempting to do as I recall was to make a correlation between a severely  -QBO through the winter months during a Nina(may have been specifically a weak Nina) and colder temps in the east. I don't believe he was claiming it would be snowier than normal, but I really don't care enough to go back and look.

[CAPE]

Who is excited for SAI tracking season? Right around the corner!

Nothin' like good ol' snake oil.