Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My scientific analysis of that sst chart

 

Sweet mercy dude...I must inform ya that emetophobia is a real thing...how do I block this GIF? Lol

[Jebman]

The entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get buried ALIVE in deep snow this upcoming winter! Its gonna be very cold too! Throw about twenty more logs on that fire!

[StormchaserChuck!]

I can give you good analysis...

I have been following larger climate/global pattern indicators such as the Stock market, Crude Oil, NCEP climate pattern indicators researched extensively going back to 1948... 

I had seen a clear "cutoff" from norms or progression starting around 2017. This, for example, made a Strong El Nino unlikely without real catalyst or change. It was a "dead" pattern. Also, things were being "bought up ahead of time" in some cases (ie derivatives). 

The Pacific Jet has displaced way north. starting around 1995, you see a drier pattern in the SW, and around that time droughts started hitting California. In 2016, normal snows are now an anomaly in northern California. That pattern has not broke, and has only come back this Summer. Without a normal Pacific Jet hitting the West coast, we no longer have Alberta clippers here, etc. I am worried that it's already to start a "global warming Winter". just a dead pattern...

ENSO has also been dead and accelerating toward Neutral around the middle of last year. I had wondered about new climate patterns, which have kind of started but they have not yet taken hold. We currently have a Weak Nina which is the best we are going to get and this could, at the very least, bring an early Spring. 

I was surprised that despite the Summer conditions a cold pool has developed over the favored spot in the Northern Atlantic for next Winter's -NAO. 34 Winter months of +NAO in a row, going back to 2013, will be very hard to break, but for the 2nd year in a row this indicator is favorable... I was interested in this because I had noticed a lot of things "filling out larger pattern" in regards to stats, even weather related, going back to 2018 and 2019 (I think this also happened in the 1960s and 70s). Given last Winter, I would see that "new pattern" in a 2 year pattern for that kind of condition to continue (ie +NAO-+EPO).. and because of stocks like AMZN (lol) I expect a "More opposite" this Winter, compared to last year., I just see how it sometimes fills out. If things like ENSO and PDO SSTs were kicking I would say a different thing.. 

I expect a few chances at 12" storms this Winter, because of thunderstorm season and rainfall anomaly patterns frankly, but an early warm late Winter-Spring. Overall a slightly above average temperature Winter, with average or slightly above average snowfall. Best chance is January for snow. We can pretty intimately track the storms. 

[CAPE]

Chuck needs to expand on the stock market/crude oil correlation to the global weather patterns. He might be on to something.

Probably cant be any worse than the SAI/AO bullshit.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I notice that we are in stuck climate pattern.. not like the 1990s. Meaning, big global oscillations are not oscillating. Only melting arctic sea ice, and even this is 20-30 years behind imo. I also notice that we are in a stuck economics with Google, Facebook, etc trillion dollar companies lol. I'm thinking we break through but it could take time. in the meantime, I notice much "filling in" a larger spectrum. It's an interesting theory, I would love to see how it verifies this Winter. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’ll say this much for that post ... it’s an absolute fact that we don’t see clippers of late. That’s puzzled me for a while. I’ve even made mention of that myself.

[snowman19]

21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Its all crap. Sst in the mjo domain is opposite what we want . Pdo. Enso. Atlantic everything isn’t right. I’m not wasting time debating which awful is most awful. 

BAMWX agrees with you. They just tweeted this morning that the signals are growing for a mild winter across the CONUS

[FPizz]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

BAMWX agrees with you. They just tweeted this morning that the signals are growing for a mild winter across the CONUS

They were so bad last winter that I had to stop following them. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

They were so bad last winter that I had to stop following them. 

I honestly thought they ended up being one of the better ones. They had been going cold and snowy until mid-December when they admitted that their winter forecast was going to be a bust and they were pretty spot on for the remainder of the month, Jan, Feb and Mar. There were several others who stubbornly refused to admit they were going to be wrong and kept forecasting blocking, cold and snowy right through February 

[North Balti Zen]

Empty nest now with one child graduated from college and second child now in his first weeks of college. Also, just came into an extra week vacation per year at work. 

So...I am planning to chase snow this year at least once. Gonna toss the pup in the car and just go.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll say this much for that post ... it’s an absolute fact that we don’t see clippers of late. That’s puzzled me for a while. I’ve even made mention of that myself.

I miss the days of getting a 8" - 12" storm, then a clipper a few days later that adds a nice 2" - 4" of fluff on top of everything. Clipper snows always have that nice little sweet spot surprise.

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I miss the days of getting a 8" - 12" storm, then a clipper a few days later that adds a nice 2" - 4" of fluff on top of everything. Clipper snows always have that nice little sweet spot surprise.

I’ve gone through the records back to the 1800s and other than in the 1960s that was never a common thing. 

[psuhoffman]

We very well could have a snowy winter. Sometimes the weather just does what it wants. But just because a forecast busts when it went cold doesn’t mean we want to see everyone going warm either!  Fact is a cold snowy forecast is way more likely to bust just because our climo is skewed that way. We typically get 2-3 really good winters a decade and the rest are petty meh.  Those 2/3 good winters inflate our average and our expectation. But the majority (even before global warming) are warm and every flake is a battle.  And when even reliably cold biased outlets are going warm there is a legit reason. But every once in a while we do get a pleasant surprise. I’m not saying there is no hope or give up. But pure odds say we are very likely headed towards one of the “meh” years.  Even so that doesn’t mean it has to be as bad as last year. Many of those years at least feature one or two fluke snowstorms. So even if the year as a whole goes poorly we will still likely get at least some opportunities and tracking. Just keeping my expectations pretty low for now. 

[Weather Will]

WeatherBell canceled winter.   Plus 3 above average temps and less than 75% snowfall.  Worst MA maps I have ever seen from them.  Hopefully as wrong as they were last year again.

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WeatherBell canceled winter.   Plus 3 above average temps and less than 75% snowfall.  Worst MA maps I have ever seen from them.  Hopefully as wrong as they were last year again.

How can a forecast be for warmer than last winter? Lol

[WxUSAF]

Forecasting cold and snow became an idealogical requirement for him.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Forecasting cold and snow became an idealogical requirement for him.

I have gotten to the point where just don;t care anymore what he thinks or says.  Even spending time mocking him is a waste..

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Mersky said:

With JB’s recent track record one would take this as a win if you like cold and snow in the MA.  Back in the day many years ago JB was one of the best. Not sure what happened to him the last few  years but it hasn’t been good. 

Like I said above it’s way too early to say anything is a lock so maybe the winter turns out ok. But you are looking at this wrong. It doesn’t matter how often people who have a cold/snow bias bust when they predict cold/snow. What you need to look at is what is their track record when they go warm. Because in JBs case it’s pretty damn good. Now that’s not a compliment to him. It’s not a fair metric because he only forecasts a below avg snowfall winter in the mid Atlantic like 2 times a decade (ridiculous considering that’s about how often we get above avg snow) when it’s so obvious that it’s probably going to be a dud winter that he gives up the hype and uses those years as a chance to save some cred.  But still when the pattern drivers are lined up so god awful that even the most epic snow hype weenies are saying it’s not going to snow that is not a good thing!  Surprises happen. Maybe things flip by December. Or maybe we get lucky in an otherwise crap pattern a couple times and that’s all it really takes to salvage a decent winter by our standards. But let’s stop pretending seeing all the typically snowy forecasters saying a snowless torch winter is coming is a good thing. Sorry I’m not a “denial” kind of person. 

[psuhoffman]

But there is always a positive. JB didn’t have last winter as the primary analog. Only the second. The first analog was 2017 and that year DC had 3.4”. Thats 500% more than last year!!!!! Boom. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think analog forecasting isn’t all that great. Sure it will work most of the time just like predicting median snowfall will have you looking decent in the end. But I’d venture to say that there’s been more than enough winters that would have gone strongly against whatever analogs that would have been used to predict them. What would the analogs have said heading into 95-96? 14-15? 15-16?

Some winters are just simply gonna bust the analogs. Some good. Some bad. And winter can be so tricky with luck and timing. I have no idea what the general patterns and stats look like in retrospect for the winter of 18-19 but the lasting impression of that winter is that it was pretty good. We had enough snow and enough cold that it felt like we had had a winter. And perception is reality regardless of what any final numbers may say.

[psuhoffman]

14/15 and 15/16 went about what analogs would have suggested.  2019 wasn’t far off for a weak nino. They can go either way and usually end up near normal. It’s really moderate ninos that have tended to be the big years. 
That said all your criticisms of analog forecasts are true. Problem is with seasonal forecasts there isn’t much choice. You can’t really forecast pattern progression for months out in time.  So we’re left looking at past progressions for clues. “Analogs”. Now I think SST analogs are becoming problematic given the changing base state of the pacific right now. Isotherm might be into something with using other factors to predict global patterns. But it’s still the same principle. That’s why seasonal is such low skill. 

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

14/15 and 15/16 went about what analogs would have suggested.  2019 wasn’t far off for a weak nino. They can go either way and usually end up near normal. It’s really moderate ninos that have tended to be the big years. 
That said all your criticisms of analog forecasts are true. Problem is with seasonal forecasts there isn’t much choice. You can’t really forecast pattern progression for months out in time.  So we’re left looking at past progressions for clues. “Analogs”. Now I think SST analogs are becoming problematic given the changing base state of the pacific right now. Isotherm might be into something with using other factors to predict global patterns. But it’s still the same principle. That’s why seasonal is such low skill. 

The most reliable indicators we have about the character of winter are ofc ENSO, and then the recent persistence of the background state in the Pacific. At this point its hard not to have visions of a persistent pig ridge sitting over the EPAC exactly where we don't want it. 

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WeatherBell canceled winter.   Plus 3 above average temps and less than 75% snowfall.  Worst MA maps I have ever seen from them.  Hopefully as wrong as they were last year again.

That’s the warmest and least snowiest I’ve ever seen Weatherbell go. I was honestly shocked 

[CAPE]

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

 

[Erick]

On 8/17/2020 at 5:37 PM, Mersky said:

With JB’s recent track record one would take this as a win if you like cold and snow in the MA.  Back in the day many years ago JB was one of the best. Not sure what happened to him the last few  years but it hasn’t been good. 

Joe seemed to go downhill after he left AccuWeather even though he was given the tech tools he bemoaned lacking at AccuWx.  His winter weather wish-casting also increased post Accuwx. Still, I find him likable and enjoy his passion for weather. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

 

I am with you far from doom and gloom.  I mean how much worse can this winter be in comparison to the winter of 2019-2020.  We only had 2.3” the entire year here.  
 

Just like hurricane season every winter season is different.  At the same time it’s rare to have an almost shut out on snow two years in a row. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, I'll take La Nina. It seems that otherwise it bubbles warm by default. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

 

Assuming this actually behaves like a “normal” La Niña and is front end loaded, usually December to mid January are cold, late January and especially February usually torch, and March is a toss up, some go back to cold, some stay warmer than normal 

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming this actually behaves like a “normal” La Niña and is front end loaded, usually December to mid January are cold, late January and especially February usually torch, and March is a toss up, some go back to cold, some stay warmer than normal 

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

 

Ya know...as we were going through the doldrums of last winter...I always wondered what's worse: A winter like last year that torches the entire time, or a la nina winter like that one that can break ya heart with the "we're too far southwest" close misses. 

I don't know man...I'm tempted to pick the torch, because I get nearby snow envy...but at least la ninas can still be cold sometimes (and scenery snow isn't completely out of the equation)