Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw, the new edition of the CanSIPS is out, and it still looks hideous for the winter months.

Looking at h5, no HL blocking at all, big EPAC +height anomalies, +heights in the eastern third of the country.

Torchy..

A La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. I think one of the keys will be what the QBO does in the fall, if it goes positive/westerly then it may be time to worry, especially if the -PDO, -AMO continues. As far as the solar cycle I’m not so sure it correlates to winter as well as some people had thought, same story with Siberian snowcover/SAI, just look at last winter....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. I think one of the keys will be what the QBO does in the fall, if it goes positive/westerly then it may be time to worry, especially if the -PDO, -AMO continues. As far as the solar cycle I’m not so sure it correlates to winter as well as some people had thought, same story with Siberian snowcover/SAI, just look at last winter....

I'm not so sure we can say that yet. Could be we might not know until winter 2021-22. There were certainly some instances of a delay...Even with the last solar minimum. We hit bottom in late 2008. But obviously, we didn't see the effect until a year later! And I'm wondering if, on the record, the bottom of the minimum only just happened this year? (in which case, not seeing a result this winter would make more sense)

Now, could the solar minimum no longer matter because of a changing climate? Sure. But if the historical "delay" is true...maybe we should wait longer.

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm not so sure we can say that yet. Could be we might not know until winter 2021-22. There were certainly some instances of a delay...Even with the last solar minimum. We hit bottom in late 2008. But obviously, we didn't see the effect until a year later! And I'm wondering if, on the record, the bottom of the minimum only just happened this year? (in which case, not seeing a result this winter would make more sense)

Now, could the solar minimum no longer matter because of a changing climate? Sure. But if the historical "delay" is true...maybe we should wait longer.

We shall see and yes, global warming I’m sure is definitely playing a factor. The people who used “low solar”, “solar minimum” and Siberian snowcover/SAI last winter to justify a cold and snowy winter forecast busted really bad and it’s not the first winter that happened either with people using those 2 factors

[snowman19]

On 8/1/2020 at 3:22 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm not so sure we can say that yet. Could be we might not know until winter 2021-22. There were certainly some instances of a delay...Even with the last solar minimum. We hit bottom in late 2008. But obviously, we didn't see the effect until a year later! And I'm wondering if, on the record, the bottom of the minimum only just happened this year? (in which case, not seeing a result this winter would make more sense)

Now, could the solar minimum no longer matter because of a changing climate? Sure. But if the historical "delay" is true...maybe we should wait longer.

Another theory which was completely blown out of the water was: “low arctic sea ice will result in more high latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO)” Over the past several winters, we’ve had record low arctic sea ice levels and high latitude blocking has been non existent 

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 7/25/2020 at 3:38 PM, CAPE said:

LOL last winter. The antithesis. We should probably get used to it.

I've been studying various global indicators right now.. I'd say expect the opposite of this, greater than 70-75%. We are in a "mixing within a large bowl" long term pattern, and you see this with the stock/currency market, how they are taking turns rising to percentages to even out, etc. I've seen this in observation of ENSO over the past 2 years, Hurricane seasons. (Sorry it starts off crappy, I've been meaning to say that for a while- much stock market analysis related to the greater climate phenomena.) It's a "dead" pattern right now, in a manner of speaking, for comparison, and I'm experiencing a big intuitive hit on opposite to even out. Pacific jet really far north has been a real climatological trend though over the past 5-10-15 years, and it is legitimately linked (I think) to melting arctic ice. We'll see. 

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I've been studying various global indicators right now.. I'd say expect the opposite of this, greater than 70-75%. We are in a "mixing within a large bowl" long term pattern, and you see this with the stock/currency market, how they are taking turns rising to percentages to even out, etc. I've seen this in observation of ENSO over the past 2 years, Hurricane seasons. (Sorry it starts off crappy, I've been meaning to say that for a while- much stock market analysis related to the greater climate phenomena.) It's a "dead" pattern right now, in a manner of speaking, for comparison, and I'm experiencing a big intuitive hit on opposite to even out. Pacific jet really far north has been a real climatological trend though over the past 5-10-15 years, and it is legitimately linked (I think) to melting arctic ice. We'll see. 

It’s been mentioned before but global warming over the past 15 years has really rendered old analogs useless. It’s a completely different climate now, than it was even 15 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40+ years ago. Global heat budgets have changed, jet streams have been altered, Hadley cells have been altered, feedbacks and ENSO circulations have changed, sea ice loss..... Use analogs from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, etc. at your own peril IMO

[Rhino16]

Is the CFS going on an okay run again? Feb looks okay I think, january looks a little dry though... We’ll be fine though. (It is the CFS, so... EGH)

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Is the CFS going on an okay run again? Feb looks okay I think, january looks a little dry though... We’ll be fine though. (It is the CFS, so... EGH)

It constantly vacillates between pure crap and pretty decent, and everything in between. Pretty useless, like all of these LR climate models, at 3-4 month lead times.

That being said, we pretty much know what the baseline is at this juncture for the winter months, so start from that. (expect total suckage as the default)

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s been mentioned before but global warming over the past 15 years has really rendered old analogs useless. It’s a completely different climate now, than it was even 15 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40+ years ago. Global heat budgets have changed, jet streams have been altered, Hadley cells have been altered, feedbacks and ENSO circulations have changed, sea ice loss..... Use analogs from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, etc. at your own peril IMO

Dang...that would mean we basically don't have any analogs at all, lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang...that would mean we basically don't have any analogs at all, lol

lol

Pretty much

He parrots what other people say, but does it very very badly.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol

Pretty much

He parrots what other people say, but does it very very badly.

Hm...wondering if there will be any other past indicators we usually rely on will behave the same way? Like ENSO, for example...now 2017-18 certainly looked like a textbook La Nina (unfortunately) And 2015-16 still acted like a typical Super Niño...(which historically have had either one big storm or nothing at all). When a mod Niño finally comes around again...will it be have the same, I wonder?

And of course the solar part I always talk about...if that just comes and goes without any effect, that would also be a first...

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

It constantly vacillates between pure crap and pretty decent, and everything in between. Pretty useless, like all of these LR climate models, at 3-4 month lead times.

That being said, we pretty much know what the baseline is at this juncture for the winter months, so start from that. (expect total suckage as the default)

It’s about setting proper expectations. When I saw the pattern that was setting in around Xmas I set my expectations so low that even though it was the worse season I recorded out of 15 up here I felt lucky and enjoyed what little snow I got. Some of the other comps to that were almost complete skunks even up here!  I knew it was going to be pretty awful so I wasn’t that upset when it was.  People that put any stock into Merskys CFS MJO predictions on the other hand... 

[psuhoffman]

Speaking of the MJO one lesson we should remember in the future, when the mjo has a weak wave through phases out of phase with the base state it will have very little to no impact on sensible weather. A weak phase 8 during a La Niña Pac base state isn’t going to save us usually.  Conversely a weak phase 4 during a cold winter won’t have the same disastrous impact as last years.  

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE I wonder how much 1996 skews the Nina QBO correlations?  Interestingly on the whole since then there hasn’t been much difference wrt cold/snow. A pretty even mix of mediocre and crap in both sets fwiw  

+ QBO Nina’s 1997-2020

1998-99, 1999-00, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2016-17

-QBO Nina’s 1997-2020

2000-01, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2011-12, 2017-18

 

[psuhoffman]

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here.   This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. 

“I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “

 

Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here.   This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. 

“I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “

 

Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

 

Oh wow.....I mean...whoa. Now I hope there's something else that can off-set the pac firehose. Certainly we can still roll the dice with other elements each year?

(or else we'd have to cancel how many winters? Mercy. Is the snow equation that simple?) You'll have to break this down a bit..."fast atmosphere"? So how does that connect to the mediocrity we've been seeing post January 2016? Lack of coastal storms? Too warm? I'm a bit confused here

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hm...wondering if there will be any other past indicators we usually rely on will behave the same way? Like ENSO, for example...now 2017-18 certainly looked like a textbook La Nina (unfortunately) And 2015-16 still acted like a typical Super Niño...(which historically have had either one big storm or nothing at all). When a mod Niño finally comes around again...will it be have the same, I wonder?

And of course the solar part I always talk about...if that just comes and goes without any effect, that would also be a first...

ENSO state is a major driver, so especially when it is clearly in a Nina or Nino phase(moderate to strong), there are established, reliable correlations that can be made about the general pattern. I cant see that suddenly "not working" anymore. Last winter the ENSO was warm neutral and the Pac SSTs were pretty warm everywhere. The winter before, the Nino was super weak and undefined, and there was little atmospheric response until very late. MJO can dominate under those conditions, and especially last winter we saw that, with the strong tropical convection persistently where we didn't want it.

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here.   This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. 

“I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “

 

Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

 

That may in fact be the long term trend, but there are always going to be variations, and other influences will likely mitigate that from time to time. At some point everything will align and the Pacific will be "favorable" again. That will probably happen 10 times before we see the next -NAO winter.

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here.   This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. 

“I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “

 

Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

 

He may well be exactly correct. There is no comparison right now to the climates of 30, 40 or 50 years ago. Joe Bastardi is a great example, constantly using “analogs” from the 40’s, 50’s, 60s, 70’s and wondering why his forecasts are a huge fail after huge fail

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol

Pretty much

He parrots what other people say, but does it very very badly.

This isn’t “parroting”, it’s fact. Like I just said, JB is a prime example, he continues to use “analogs” from 50 years ago, hypes them, then wonders why they turn into epic fails. Denying reality. It’s been happening for years yet he still continues doing it. There is no denying that our climate has changed in a very huge way over the last 15-20 years

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow.....I mean...whoa. Now I hope there's something else that can off-set the pac firehose. Certainly we can still roll the dice with other elements each year?

(or else we'd have to cancel how many winters? Mercy. Is the snow equation that simple?) You'll have to break this down a bit..."fast atmosphere"? So how does that connect to the mediocrity we've been seeing post January 2016? Lack of coastal storms? Too warm? I'm a bit confused here

A faster mid latitude jet would make it a lot harder to get the buckling and blocking we need. We are usually too far south for a zonal flow to work. Especially when that flow is dominated by pacific air blasting across.  As cape said there will still be variance within the mean and times it relaxes but if the expanded Hadley cell causing a tighter mid latitude gradient and thus an enhanced jet is a permanent fixture it would have a negative effect on our prospects for cold/snow. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This isn’t “parroting”, it’s fact. Like I just said, JB is a prime example, he continues to use “analogs” from 50 years ago, hypes them, then wonders why they turn into epic fails. Denying reality. It’s been happening for years yet he still continues doing it. There is no denying that our climate has changed in a very huge way over the last 15-20 years

JB is an awful example because he doesn’t even believe his own forecasts imo. He is just a click bait machine at this point. I’ll give you one example of proof. Several years ago JB was calling for cold (shocking) but at the same time his colleague JoeD was posting warnings that based on the QBO the analogs were actually warmer. Then later when his forecast busted JB used that same argument to explain why but acted like he simply missed it. Some live and learn crap excuse. Except he used that exact correlation (although the opposite one) years before in a forecast so he was lying. He knew full well the correlation and he simply ignored it. He knew his forecast was BS. Im not saying analog forecasting isn’t being impacted by climate change but using someone who does a piss poor job if it (intentionally imo) isn’t a good source of evidence. 
 

It’s ironic you use JB since you are the antithesis.  Your points would be taken more seriously if you weren’t always anti cold/snow.  I happen to agree with what your saying right now but how can people trust what you’re saying when frankly you would be saying that even if it looked good for cold/snow. You constantly beat the drum for warm no matter what and so people have tuned you out for the same but opposite reason we tune JB out!

[frd]

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon.   

I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. 

PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. 

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. 

For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past  3 winters.  So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.     

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

JB is an awful example because he doesn’t even believe his own forecasts imo. He is just a click bait machine at this point. I’ll give you one example of proof. Several years ago JB was calling for cold (shocking) but at the same time his colleague JoeD was posting warnings that based on the QBO the analogs were actually warmer. Then later when his forecast busted JB used that same argument to explain why but acted like he simply missed it. Some live and learn crap excuse. Except he used that exact correlation (although the opposite one) years before in a forecast so he was lying. He knew full well the correlation and he simply ignored it. He knew his forecast was BS. Im not saying analog forecasting isn’t being impacted by climate change but using someone who does a piss poor job if it (intentionally imo) isn’t a good source of evidence. 
 

It’s ironic you use JB since you are the antithesis.  Your points would be taken more seriously if you weren’t always anti cold/snow.  I happen to agree with what your saying right now but how can people trust what you’re saying when frankly you would be saying that even if it looked good for cold/snow. You constantly beat the drum for warm no matter what and so people have tuned you out for the same but opposite reason we tune JB out!

I’m really not anti cold and snow. I usually lean on the warmer side yes but over the last several winters I see no reason not to. I will say this, if this stays a weak La Niña, and the QBO goes solidly negative/easterly in the fall, I’m more than willing to go with a cold and snowy winter even if the PDO is negative and the AMO is negative. For the most part, I don’t really care what the solar cycle or Siberian snowcover do, for the reasons I’ve already stated. In the study I linked to a few days ago, they had strong evidence that a La Niña promotes a colder stratosphere, regardless of solar cycle anyway.  I think to a large extent the soil moisture theory that DT loves to use is very unreliable as well. Anyway, that said, I definitely would not expect 95-96 to walk through the door even if the QBO goes negative, besides the changed climate, that winter had a strong +PDO (very unusual for a La Niña), the AMO was strongly positive, the SSTs around Greenland and Davis Straight were very warm and well above normal, promoting the -NAO Tripole setup we had that winter, the QBO flipped negative in the fall then gained a lot of strength that winter (whether that happens this winter remains to be seen) and that La Niña stayed weak and east-based all winter. Like you said, the La Niña/QBO link is a very strong one. D’Aleo’s study was eye opening in that regard 

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, frd said:

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal.

Now hang on...so last winter was an El Niño, though? Thought it was neutral?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A faster mid latitude jet would make it a lot harder to get the buckling and blocking we need. We are usually too far south for a zonal flow to work. Especially when that flow is dominated by pacific air blasting across.  As cape said there will still be variance within the mean and times it relaxes but if the expanded Hadley cell causing a tighter mid latitude gradient and thus an enhanced jet is a permanent fixture it would have a negative effect on our prospects for cold/snow. 

Ah, so the problem that seemed most evident in 2018-19 may keep haunting us, huh? (that sticks out in my mind because of the early Dec miss and the January storm that was "okay"). 

Aw man...from what you guys are saying...sounds like there's a possibility what we had in the best years may stay in the past. It's hard to face the prospect of not seeing the deep snow even 4-5 years apart. I gotta wonder if 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and the Blizzard of 2016 were our deep snow "Swan Song". One of life's pleasures evaporates....and it's kinda sad. All through most of our lives (all of my brief 29 years anyway, lol)...ya knew that at least every 3-4 years you could look forward to having a great winter. That would make the crappier ones a little easier, and open up new anticipation the following year(s) Even if going forward we try to learn not to expect it...it'll still be kinda sad each year. It'll be like a joy of the past now missing.

P.S. If this is indeed our reality, I no longer associate the name "Hadley" with any positivity from now on, lol (although I did have a teacher with that name who was a positive influence, so that might save it, haha)

[Maestrobjwa]

Ya know...it would help that...if we can't have deep snow anymore...I wish we could have ice storms like the south gets sometimes. Now THAT would be a nice consolation prize, lol Any chance the change in climate makes us more like that? 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now hang on...so last winter was an El Niño, though? Thought it was neutral?

Some may try to claim one or both of the last 2 winters were a Nino, but the atmospheric response was anything but. Technically, 2018-19 was a weak Nino, but it was  puny. For all practical purposes, the last 2 winters were warm neutral.

[PhineasC]

Above normal temps, 10" or less of snow in DCA. Adjust accordingly for your area. That's my final call.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon.   

I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. 

PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. 

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. 

For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past  3 winters.  So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.     

I think at this point factoring in warning trends simply makes sense. 
 

wrt to this upcoming winter...agree.  There is way more in the “that ain’t good” side of the ledger right now for our snow prospects and needs.  That said things can change. The QBO has been behaving erratically lately. Honestly the last 3 years are unprecedented in QBO behavior. Maybe try current rise is only temporary and by winter it tanks again.  Or maybe we get lucky with a one week epic run like 2000.  That winter was utter garbage in every way from a pattern and long range drivers POV  but we got a 10 day period with a good pattern and hit the jackpot.  Take the 2/3 storms that affected us in that week away end 2000 would have been a historically crap year.  Instead we remember it fondly.  Dumb luck is always possible.  I don’t base my forecasts on it though!