July Heat Wave

[Syrmax]

For those interested... current R/T generation mix in NY.  Current statewide load is about 26,600 MW (all time record load is about 33,950 MW).  In state generation is about 23,000 MW, so we are importing about 3,600 MW from external areas (Ontario Hydro, Hydro Quebec, PJM).  

For renewable lovers...note the wind output today...178 MW. It's basically roundoff error and not unusual during heat waves. There is about 2,600 MW of installed wind capacity in the state.  Hence you can see the problem with developing too much reliance on wind energy.   Almost all the renewable output is from the Hydro complexes at Niagara and St. Lawrence (and many small river units).  No easy data on solar as a lot of it is installed Behind the Meter, residential/commercial.  So it basically acts to reduce load (during the day).

[BuffaloWeather]

Buf hit 90 for its 6th day straight. Tomorrow and Friday are likely the warmest days of the streak, so a virtual lock to break the longest 90+ day streak in Bufs history! 

[ayuud11]

We just hit 90F at BUF looks like that record will officially be broken after tomorrow.

[ayuud11]

I want Buffalo to hit 100F next week lol can’t let that 600dm go to waste haha

[CNY_WX]

Has Buffalo ever hit 100?

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

This isn't Cali, from what I've read NY has quite a bit of electrical overhead to tap into if needed. 

Well there were 4000 in amherst-north buffalo out of power due to over use the last 2 days. Won't be widespread but there will be pockets.

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Has Buffalo ever hit 100?

Nope. 99 in 1948

[DeltaT13]

26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well there were 4000 in amherst-north buffalo out of power due to over use the last 2 days. Won't be widespread but there will be pockets.

Those outages are not driven by excessive electrical demand.

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Nope. 99 in 1948

Syracuse has hit 100 I believe 3 times.

[BuffaloWeather]

From KBUF

It appears likely that there will be another heat wave during the July 16 - 22 period, potentially even hotter than the heat wave ongoing. Check out the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from CPC. Is anyone ready for winter yet?

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From KBUF

It appears likely that there will be another heat wave during the July 16 - 22 period, potentially even hotter than the heat wave ongoing. Check out the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from CPC. Is anyone ready for winter yet?

Local Todd on 4 had 92 for next Wed...he stated on air he is adjusting that up almost a week out to the mid 90's...there may be some true potential for that first 100 at KBUF

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Those outages are not driven by excessive electrical demand.

https://www-wgrz-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.wgrz.com/amp/article/news/local/national-grid-asking-customers-to-reduce-electricity-usage-in-parts-of-amherst/71-9829dbab-2c45-4eaf-b928-8d07660ae88a?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15942498312527&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wgrz.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fnational-grid-asking-customers-to-reduce-electricity-usage-in-parts-of-amherst%2F71-9829dbab-2c45-4eaf-b928-8d07660ae88a

[brentrich]

17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Local Todd on 4 had 92 for next Wed...he stated on air he is adjusting that up almost a week out to the mid 90's...there may be some true potential for that first 100 at KBUF

Maybe lake Ontario water temperature can reach to 85 degree by August? I believe highest it was 78 degree? If that's the case, tons of lake effect snow this winter

 

[Vicarious]

2 hours ago, brentrich said:

Maybe lake Ontario water temperature can reach to 85 degree by August? I believe highest it was 78 degree? If that's the case, tons of lake effect snow this winter

 

with upwelling it makes it very difficult to reach those high of temps, At Rochester it's 57 right now(looking at NOAA)

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Local Todd on 4 had 92 for next Wed...he stated on air he is adjusting that up almost a week out to the mid 90's...there may be some true potential for that first 100 at KBUF

Yeah Weds-Fri next week look like 90+ easily. Especially Thursday. Next week is historically hottest week of the year. This would bring Rochester-Syracuse 100-105 temps.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

High of 92 today at Buf. Guesses for tomorrow?

Thurs- 97

Fri- 94

[lakeeffectkid383]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

High of 92 today at Buf. Guesses for tomorrow?

Thurs- 97

Fri- 94

Thurs 96 heat index max 102

Fri 93 heat index max 99

 

Any guesses as to why the lake seems to not be having much of an impact this heatwave on BUF? Even when winds have been SW right off the lake we’ve still been hitting 92-94 everyday. What’s gonna make this next heatwave any different and keep us from hitting upper 90s to 100 even at KBUF if the synoptic setup and 850s are even more impressive then this current heatwave? 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Thurs 96 heat index max 102

Fri 93 heat index max 99

 

Any guesses as to why the lake seems to not be having much of an impact this heatwave on BUF? Even when winds have been SW right off the lake we’ve still been hitting 92-94 everyday. What’s gonna make this next heatwave any different and keep us from hitting upper 90s to 100 even at KBUF if the synoptic setup and 850s are even more impressive then this current heatwave? 

I'm not entirely sure. The winds today were under 10 MPH which could of had an impact with the airport far enough inland to avoid the breeze. The last few days the winds haven't been SW. Tomorrow the winds are south at 5 MPH, literally perfect setup for 95+

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm not entirely sure. The winds today were under 10 MPH which could of had an impact with the airport far enough inland to avoid the breeze. The last few days the winds haven't been SW. Tomorrow the winds are south at 5 MPH, literally perfect setup for 95+

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

Tuesday the 7th when we hit 94 winds were SW all day too. Just seems crazy. Wondering if the next heatwave will be the same or not.

Tomorrow is forecasted SW winds too from the NWS.

I think your right though with how weak the winds are.

Thursday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

 

07

15:54

SW 10

10.00

A Few Clouds

FEW065 FEW270

93

56

29%

[Thinksnow18]

6 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Thurs 96 heat index max 102

Fri 93 heat index max 99

 

Any guesses as to why the lake seems to not be having much of an impact this heatwave on BUF? Even when winds have been SW right off the lake we’ve still been hitting 92-94 everyday. What’s gonna make this next heatwave any different and keep us from hitting upper 90s to 100 even at KBUF if the synoptic setup and 850s are even more impressive then this current heatwave? 

96 today

91 Friday

[ayuud11]

94 today

93 Friday

Dansville hits 100F

[DeltaT13]

12 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

https://www-wgrz-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.wgrz.com/amp/article/news/local/national-grid-asking-customers-to-reduce-electricity-usage-in-parts-of-amherst/71-9829dbab-2c45-4eaf-b928-8d07660ae88a?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15942498312527&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wgrz.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fnational-grid-asking-customers-to-reduce-electricity-usage-in-parts-of-amherst%2F71-9829dbab-2c45-4eaf-b928-8d07660ae88a

To me that outage looks like poorly maintained or damaged hardware failing under heavy load. Typically when people talk about rolling blackouts and heat related outages they are referring to demand outpacing the supply such that the local power generating facilities cannot keep up.  

That said, you are correct, the failure in Buffalo was heat related, just kind of indirectly IMO. 

[Thinksnow18]

31 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

To me that outage looks like poorly maintained or damaged hardware failing under heavy load. Typically when people talk about rolling blackouts and heat related outages they are referring to demand outpacing the supply such that the local power generating facilities cannot keep up.  

That said, you are correct, the failure in Buffalo was heat related, just kind of indirectly IMO. 

I agree with you. California is famous for rolling brownouts and blackouts, the kind we don't see around here for sure luckily. As for the failure, some of that belongs on the power company in this instance. They repaired it the first day, or so they thought, only to realize when the same 4000 customers lost power the next day their repairs weren't effective. Nothing like replacing older equipment with newer ineffective equipment! 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Tuesday the 7th when we hit 94 winds were SW all day too. Just seems crazy. Wondering if the next heatwave will be the same or not.

Tomorrow is forecasted SW winds too from the NWS.

I think your right though with how weak the winds are.

Thursday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

 

07

15:54

SW 10

10.00

A Few Clouds

FEW065 FEW270

93

56

29%

Yeah, the lakes pretty warm too. 

[BuffaloWeather]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 79.7 

DPTR FM NORMAL: 9.2

[Revracer800]

8:55am and it's already 82° dewpoint is sitting at 72 gonna be a brutal day. Even though we haven't had much rain my yard is looking like a hay field but too damn hot to mow it. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

15 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

8:55am and it's already 82° dewpoint is sitting at 72 gonna be a brutal day. Even though we haven't had much rain my yard is looking like a hay field but too damn hot to mow it. 

Same 83 here already with 71 degree dew point. My grass hasn’t grown in at least 4-5 days no joke. That’s the one good thing to come out of this no rain and heat lol, I haven’t cut my grass in 2 weeks and it looks like I cut it 4-5 days ago. It’s moderately long which is perfect to survive this heatwave because if I had cut it down before it would be dead And brown like 90 percent of the neighborhood around here. I have one of the greenest lawns in the neighborhood and I don’t ever water it, I just don’t cut it very short when I cut it and when I know it’s going to be hot like it is now I leave it even if it grows long like a hay field like yours lol. 

[vortmax]

2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Same 83 here already with 71 degree dew point. My grass hasn’t grown in at least 4-5 days no joke. That’s the one good thing to come out of this no rain and heat lol, I haven’t cut my grass in 2 weeks and it looks like I cut it 4-5 days ago. It’s moderately long which is perfect to survive this heatwave because if I had cut it down before it would be dead And brown like 90 percent of the neighborhood around here. I have one of the greenest lawns in the neighborhood and I don’t ever water it, I just don’t cut it very short when I cut it and when I know it’s going to be hot like it is now I leave it even if it grows long like a hay field like yours lol. 

Same here, although I've watered mine some to keep it healthy. Keeping it longer allows more dew to form on the blades and drip to the ground.

[Revracer800]

I mowed a week ago but still looks like a hay field still. I never cut it very low to try to keep it looking nice, but it's getting brown in spots and will only get worse. All my neighbors tell me i mow my lawn too much lol. I'm just a little crazy about my lawn looking nice. 

[wolfie09]

Approaching 90° as of 10:45 am lol