Tropical Storm Fay

[Windspeed]

Special Message from NHC Issued 9 Jul 2020 20:17 UTC   

 

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT.

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey
northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and
Long Island Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long 
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was 
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving 
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northward to north- 
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the 
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Fay is 
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move 
inland over the northeast United States on Saturday. 

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and 
Friday.  Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on 
Saturday. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center. 

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance 
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. 

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along 
and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into 
southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result 
in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward 
through the warning area Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[JakkelWx]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

What’s the record for most tropical storm formations before a hurricane in the Atlantic basin? 
 

looks like impacts will be similar to a nor’easter but pretty rare landfall area for a TC 

[Floydbuster]

Could have been 2011 maybe? Hurricane Irene?

[Bhs1975]

What’s the record for most tropical storm formations before a hurricane in the Atlantic basin? 
 
looks like impacts will be similar to a nor’easter but pretty rare landfall area for a TC 

Not gonna be rare anymore with AGW changing the upper air pattern.


.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Mt. Holly office issued a statement for here in their CWA about 90 minutes ago -

Quote

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 1
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-100530-

Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL062020
517 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Tropical Storm Fay to Approach the New Jersey Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean,
      Eastern Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, Southeastern Burlington,
      and Western Monmouth

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean,
      Eastern Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, Southeastern Burlington,
      and Western Monmouth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles south of Atlantic City NJ or about 240 miles
      south of Cape May NJ
    - 35.5N 74.9W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Heavy rain leading to flooding will be possible, especially
along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor due to Tropical
Storm Fay. Tropical Storm Fay is currently off the Outer Banks. It
is expected to progress north over our region through Friday. Heavy
rain is possible beginning very late tonight and continuing through
Friday evening. The threat for tropical storm winds over land is
very low except right along the New Jersey coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts along and southeast Interstate 95 corridor. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
New Jersey... and southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal New Jersey. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across the region, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

We usually get Hurricane and/or TS remnants most times - and that's usually in the early fall period.