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Tropical Storm Fay


wdrag
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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It probably is a hybrid which is part of the reason why it looks as good as it does on radar. I'm just not sure that sub-tropical is the correct term and it has me thinking as to whether or not storms like this are properly identified. Maybe this is just a small scale extra-tropical storm?

To your point, it actually looks better/more tropical than some of the other ones that were called "tropical" this season- remember Dolly?  It probably is extratrop but wont get labeled as such until after landfall- which is a good idea because we dont want anyone to be caught off guard (remember all the controversy over Sandy?)

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

To your point, it actually looks better/more tropical than some of the other ones that were called "tropical" this season- remember Dolly?

A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today.

SdM9I8p.gif

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today.

SdM9I8p.gif

Yeah and if something like this happens next month I could see it becoming at least as strong as Irene was when it came ashore here- maybe stronger.  I edited my post to make a comment about it being extratrop, it probably is, but it's smart for them not to state that so people stay on guard, remember all the controversy over Sandy.  You cant take this storm lightly.  We're under  a flash flood watch here and this issue is likely going to affect areas well inland.  The expanding wind field is also going to be an issue.  A lot of inland areas have seen multiple days of flooding rain over the past week and the soil is still wet and under these conditions it doesn't take a lot of wind to bring down trees- a 30 mph gust can do it.  I've seen it happen before.

 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today.

SdM9I8p.gif

Had this been a major a track like this would have caused 100 Billion in damage.

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5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a major a track like this would have caused 100 Billion in damage.

Two things I found amazing about tracking this storm.

1) A direct impact was never really in doubt. The models shifted East for one model cycle, but for the most part have been locked in.

2) Every year we have so many storms that end up in similar positions off of OBX and we can count on almost one hand the amount of direct impacts that we've had. So far this year we're one for one. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 101200
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar
indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north
and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching
the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few
hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay.

No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, 
however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant 
at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes 
were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 
AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. 
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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P.  00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS.  Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. 

 

One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 7.22.11 AM.png

Agree with your thoughts about the flooding especially in my area due to the 3.8” of rain from the other day. Ground is saturated in certain areas. Even areas such as the Delaware River out in your area could have some flash flooding. Campgrounds have the seasonal folks there. Hopefully they are mindful.

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14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree with your thoughts about the flooding especially in my area due to the 3.8” of rain from the other day. Ground is saturated in certain areas. Even areas such as the Delaware River out in your area could have some flash flooding. Campgrounds have the seasonal folks there. Hopefully they are mindful.

Agreed w yours.  Usually we don't FF here in Sussex County unless we hook a storm on a hill with backward redevelopment. Campers-hikers should have been smart enough to abandon plans late today-tonight.  If they get in trouble,  I'd say it is their responsibility.  

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