LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It probably is a hybrid which is part of the reason why it looks as good as it does on radar. I'm just not sure that sub-tropical is the correct term and it has me thinking as to whether or not storms like this are properly identified. Maybe this is just a small scale extra-tropical storm? To your point, it actually looks better/more tropical than some of the other ones that were called "tropical" this season- remember Dolly? It probably is extratrop but wont get labeled as such until after landfall- which is a good idea because we dont want anyone to be caught off guard (remember all the controversy over Sandy?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: To your point, it actually looks better/more tropical than some of the other ones that were called "tropical" this season- remember Dolly? A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 WWD (Cape May) : 3.18 and couting (started rainig 5AM) ACY: DOV:: 1.45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today. Yeah and if something like this happens next month I could see it becoming at least as strong as Irene was when it came ashore here- maybe stronger. I edited my post to make a comment about it being extratrop, it probably is, but it's smart for them not to state that so people stay on guard, remember all the controversy over Sandy. You cant take this storm lightly. We're under a flash flood watch here and this issue is likely going to affect areas well inland. The expanding wind field is also going to be an issue. A lot of inland areas have seen multiple days of flooding rain over the past week and the soil is still wet and under these conditions it doesn't take a lot of wind to bring down trees- a 30 mph gust can do it. I've seen it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A little bit more time over the Gulf stream and this would have been a real beast. Even as it is, going to be one hell of a storm later today. Had this been a major a track like this would have caused 100 Billion in damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Had this been a major a track like this would have caused 100 Billion in damage. Two things I found amazing about tracking this storm. 1) A direct impact was never really in doubt. The models shifted East for one model cycle, but for the most part have been locked in. 2) Every year we have so many storms that end up in similar positions off of OBX and we can count on almost one hand the amount of direct impacts that we've had. So far this year we're one for one. Hopefully a sign of things to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Doesnt look like the center is headed inland either...models yesterday had it over S NJ or even near philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Pressure down to 998mb on the last center fix so still deepening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Doesnt look like the center is headed inland either...models yesterday had it over S NJ or even near philly will probably make landfall between Cape May and Atlantic City. Highest wind gusts so far seem to be in that region- one report of a 57 mph gust already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Seeing a circulation offshore is amazing this far north even if its a weak one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P. 00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS. Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens. Agree with your thoughts about the flooding especially in my area due to the 3.8” of rain from the other day. Ground is saturated in certain areas. Even areas such as the Delaware River out in your area could have some flash flooding. Campgrounds have the seasonal folks there. Hopefully they are mindful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 light rain has started by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Hugging the coast, just offshore. A dream track for areas just inland if this was Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 https://www.njweather.org/maps/mid-atlantic-radar-3-hour-loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 the storm is to close to land to intensify into a major storm... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 First downpours moved through just now. Tropical rains for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Agree with your thoughts about the flooding especially in my area due to the 3.8” of rain from the other day. Ground is saturated in certain areas. Even areas such as the Delaware River out in your area could have some flash flooding. Campgrounds have the seasonal folks there. Hopefully they are mindful. Agreed w yours. Usually we don't FF here in Sussex County unless we hook a storm on a hill with backward redevelopment. Campers-hikers should have been smart enough to abandon plans late today-tonight. If they get in trouble, I'd say it is their responsibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Seeing a circulation offshore is amazing this far north even if its a weak one Water temps (at least at the surface) are way above normal. I would think in the future our area will be much more prone to local development like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: First downpours moved through just now. Tropical rains for sure. had a quick shower here-fine droplets which are indicative of a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Both NAMS jackpot NYC with 3+ inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 UNCONFIRMED 52kt at 903A at a LEWES mesonet platform. as of 10A, several 4-5.5" wx flow totals in eastern DE, a little less coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 WWD (Cape May) : 3.55 ACY: 2.44 DOV: 2.26 BLM: 0.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Still think this is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 OXB (Ocean City): 5.08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 After a few very light showers earlier, the steady rain appears to be starting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Atlantic City airport reporting wind gust to 44mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 our good rains are going to come from feeder bands interacting with a warm front overhead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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