Rjay Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 44 minutes ago, wdrag said: Do you want me to shift the posts to the tropical section? Walt No. It's affecting our subforum. Thanks. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 What do you guys think for winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: What do you guys think for winds? Not that impressive This seems like your typical noreaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: What do you guys think for winds? Maybe some gusts to 40 mph otherwise not much of a wind threat. Flooding from rain will be more of a concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Strongest winds east of the center, Long Island and Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Gusts hit 46Kt just was oof DE around 724A (1124z), currently at around 40kt Ocean City South Beach, Lewes, and Dewey Beach DE mesonet platforms at about 830A(1230z). all northeast winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: No. It's affecting our subforum. Thanks. Yep and the tropical forum is pretty quiet. Best to keep it here where we've been tracking it for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Easterly breeze here slowly picking up, 15mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Maybe some gusts to 40 mph otherwise not much of a wind threat. Flooding from rain will be more of a concern. Rainfall in Ocean City approaching 6 inches already...getting reports that the wind field is starting to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 DOV: 0.99 ACY: 0.68 last hour and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Atlantic City airport reporting heavy rain, wind ENE at 22mph gusting to 33mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 HRRR looks lousy once you're east of Nassau. Essentially 0.25" or so in Suffolk through the end of the run-breezy to windy showery day. Max gusts over LI and NJ shore get to 40mph or so. Heavy rain is essentially NYC and west. Doesn't match up with radar terribly well right now but the heavy band over the ocean essentially consolidates over NJ and breaks up east from there. Hopefully that's wrong but the trend's been pretty obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: HRRR looks lousy once you're east of Nassau. Essentially 0.25" or so in Suffolk through the end of the run-breezy to windy showery day. Max gusts over LI and NJ shore get to 40mph or so. Heavy rain is essentially NYC and west. Doesn't match up with radar terribly well right now but the heavy band over the ocean essentially consolidates over NJ and breaks up east from there. Hopefully that's wrong. I'm thinking that the HRRR is out to lunch. Have you seen the radar? Daytime heating is only going to add more fuel to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Surprised nobody posted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I think Long Island will get on and off heavy tropical showers and potential storms with windy conditions. New Jersey not much wind with a more steady heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm thinking that the HRRR is out to lunch. Have you seen the radar? Daytime heating is only going to add more fuel to the fire. Yeah-should add the 1100Z run just out looked a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yep and the tropical forum is pretty quiet. Best to keep it here where we've been tracking it for days. Its borderline tropical at best. Impressive storm but absolutely nothing going on around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, lee59 said: I think Long Island will get on and off heavy tropical showers and potential storms with windy conditions. New Jersey not much wind with a more steady heavy rain. New Jersey shore should be windy. I am wondering if those areas that received the heavy rains recently could have some flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Its borderline tropical at best. Impressive storm but absolutely nothing going on around the center. Were up to the "F" storm and I think they all have been like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Its borderline tropical at best. Impressive storm but absolutely nothing going on around the center. Not sure what you were expecting. It's a 45kt storm off of VA Beach in early July. Not exactly what I would call a conducive environment for a deep tropical system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, NJwx85 said: Not sure what you were expecting. It's a 45kt storm off of VA Beach in early July. Not exactly what I would call a conducive environment for a deep tropical system. I wasn't expecting anything. Just think it should be labeled subtropical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Special Marine Warning ANZ451-471-472-101400- /O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0070.200710T1234Z-200710T1400Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 834 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm... Outer waters from Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40 nm... * Until 1000 AM EDT. * At 834 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 25 nm southeast of Garden State North Reef, moving northwest at 30 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Beach Haven, Barnegat Light, North Beach Haven, Garden State North Reef, Ship Bottom, Barnegat Light Reef, Garden State South Reef, Harvey Cedars and Forked River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately. && LAT...LON 3925 7359 3958 7437 3989 7410 3939 7346 TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 128DEG 30KT 3935 7362 WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.00IN WIND...40KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I wasn't expecting anything. Just think it should be labeled subtropical. Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't sub-tropical when the center is in the mid-levels instead of at the surface? I believe in this case we have a closed surface low or the NHC wouldn't have named it as a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't sub-tropical when the center is in the mid-levels instead of at the surface? I believe in this case we have a closed surface low or the NHC wouldn't have named it as a TS. I think he means it's subtropical because the strong winds are away from the center. And the windfield is expanding, so it matches up more to a noreaster kind of structure rather than purely tropical. It's probably a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: I think he means it's subtropical because the strong winds are away from the center. And the windfield is expanding, so it matches up more to a noreaster kind of structure rather than purely tropical. It's probably a hybrid. It probably is a hybrid which is part of the reason why it looks as good as it does on radar. I'm just not sure that sub-tropical is the correct term and it has me thinking as to whether or not storms like this are properly identified. Maybe this is just a small scale extra-tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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