Doorman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 504 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 11 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...Mid Atlantic/New England... ...20Z Update... Pretty big QPF/ERO changes at this update as the newly formed Tropical Storm Fay will track a bit closer to the coast and into inland New England than was previous forecast. This then brings the axis of heaviest rain farther inland; along and east of the I-95 corridor across portions of DE, eastern PA, into NY and points east. As precipitable water values of over 2.25 inches work inland aided by easterly low level flow with the track orienting NNE over the period, expect efficient rain rates and training (as the propagation vectors and mean wind align) not only across much of Delaware, eastern PA (Poconos), NJ and into update NY associated with northern quadrants but with thunderstorms moving across Long Island and points north into CT/RI and MA. Areal average precipitation is around 1-3+ inches with locally higher amounts possible. Given much of this region has received an abundance of rain over the past several days, especially eastern PA/NJ and update NY, feel soils are sensitive to additional rainfall. Therefore, a Slight Risk was introduced based on the latest QPF/model trends. A Moderate Risk may be needed, especially for the urban sector, if the QPF continues to highlight this region and trend upward. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 some tropical storms that hit us directly... tropical storm Brenda on July 30th 1960 caused 3-5" of rain and winds gusting to 35mph...that's a benchmark for a none hurricane hitting our area in July...Doria in Aug 1971 was a little stronger and wetter...July 1996 had one (the name escapes me) with a direct hit but not as strong as the last two I mentioned... edit... there was another none named storm in July 1972 that gave the area 3" of rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 GFS is a bit further west but most models lean more east right now. NYC metro could be near jackpot zone with rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-sandwich-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 36 hr screenshot precip.....Canadian prog NASTY for L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 How are winds looking at the peak of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, David-LI said: How are winds looking at the peak of storm? 20 to 30 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: its initialization is wrong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 20 to 30 mph Might be a good difference between west/east of the track. East of the track along the coast could have 50-60mph gusts, west and there won't be much wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 47 minutes ago, Doorman said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-sandwich-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 36 hr screenshot precip.....Canadian prog NASTY for L.I. Hard to really pinpoint the center. NHC said it just reformed NE a little? The convection is all east of it so that usually means the center will try to locate closer to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Crazy that we have a homegrown developing TS so close by. Usually we get remnants, or long tracked systems from the Caribbean, Cape Verde etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Might be a good difference between west/east of the track. East of the track along the coast could have 50-60mph gusts, west and there won't be much wind. very typical for storms up this way, heaviest rains west of the track highest winds east of the track- see Bertha 7/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Crazy that we have a homegrown developing TS so close by. Usually we get remnants, or long tracked systems from the Caribbean, Cape Verde etc. This is probably just an appetizer for what comes this way later in the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Crazy that we have a homegrown developing TS so close by. Usually we get remnants, or long tracked systems from the Caribbean, Cape Verde etc. Storms like Fay will likely become more common in the future. Who knows soon we might get a home grown cane developing off the Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Storms like Fay will likely become more common in the future. Who knows soon we might get a home grown cane developing off the Delmarva. I'm envisioning something like August 1893. We've also been seeing tracks closer to the coast in the past decade or so, not the Eastern Long Island/New England tracks like what Gloria and Bob had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: its initialization is wrong Typical gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS is a bit further west but most models lean more east right now. NYC metro could be near jackpot zone with rains. Euro also moved west not that far from the GFS. Looks like a general 2"+ from eastern PA to LI based on the forecasts I've been looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 They also name storms that are anemic or even sub-tropical. Years ago some probably would not have been named 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NWS hourly forecast has gusts to 52 out here, could be some power outages if thats right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 18z euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Feel free to discuss any model you want in here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 For posterity 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 i am surprised a tornado watch is not out for part of the tri state area... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, nycwinter said: i am surprised a tornado watch is not out for part of the tri state area... Even if that were to eventually happen its way to early. That would occur tomorrow morning as we still have around 10 hours or so before we really start feeling Fays effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 My guess is the worst of Fays effects (heavy rain/gusty winds) will be felt around here from mid morning (9-10 am?) thru about mid to late evening tomorrow (9-10 pm?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, lee59 said: They also name storms that are anemic or even sub-tropical. Years ago some probably would not have been named Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 18z HWRF takes the center West of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z HWRF takes the center West of Philly. Sounds like it'd be a good hit. Heaviest stuff will be north east of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z HWRF takes the center West of Philly. no it doesn't 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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