Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i think this hugs the coast. tropical systems with relatively weak steering are tough to get far inland Euro hugging the coast this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I'm actually in eastern PA for this one, vs being in SW Long Island lol. See that darkest shade of purple in eastern PA? I'm in the northern part of that dark blob, about 2,000 ft in elevation (near Lake Harmony.) Do you really think the impacts here will be worse vs my "regular" home in SW Nassau County? 12z Euro says yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: This is true in most cases, Hurricane Gloria and Bob both examples. This is not completely tropical at this point and the precip could be well north of the center and more directly above the center rather than completely west. Agreed, just wanted to point out that even though the convection is currently East of the center, it's not meaningful at this point and something you would expect with a developing warm core low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z Euro says yes. Looks like Allentown is a good place to be for this storm ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 12z EC as noted previously, adding that its flash density op model product has some lightning Fri eve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Could be three unusually far north developments for so early in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Recon is in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Nam looks quite a bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 amazing that we're waiting for the center to develop so the models can get a good handle and the storm is already near NC. what a crazy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 If the storm goes west across NJ, still a big if, the severe outbreaks could be over Long Island and Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 100915- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0001.200710T1000Z-200711T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk- Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for Southern Connecticut, Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island. * From Friday morning through Friday evening. * Heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Friday evening. A total of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is forecast with locally higher amounts possible. Torrential rainfall within a short period of time will be possible and this could lead to flooding of low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Some smaller streams and rivers could exceed bankfull. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Fay at 5PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Wonder if we get a tropical storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Wonder if we get a tropical storm watch i hope not. nobody away from south jersey/delmarva beaches will be getting TS conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Fay at 5PM Are you saying it has been named as a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Are we staying here or moving this conversation to Tropical? Prefer going to one continuous thread. AMWX call, whatever you wish> presume someone is in charge of the tropical page.? Thanks in advance for informing me/us-Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 NHC put out an announcement at 2017z on FAY starting 5P--elaborating briefly on the slightly earlier posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Looks like low getting organized just east of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 22 minutes ago, lee59 said: Are you saying it has been named as a tropical storm? NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT. Ok, I see it now on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i hope not. nobody away from south jersey/delmarva beaches will be getting TS conditions Went with warnings right up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NHC center of cone right over the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. Interesting Cone.....they have it strengthening to 50 mph right over Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Tropical Storm Warning for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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