Tropical Storm Fay

[lee59]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Typically you'll find max gusts matching the projected sustained winds of landfalling systems.  There were a couple of reports of 57 mph gusts along the Jersey shore, one in southern Monmouth county and another one in Southern NJ near Cape May.  That's close enough to the 60 mph projected sustained winds.

 

The only problem with that is there is a big difference between maximum gusts and sustained winds. Look I don't want to sound like I didn't think it was a good storm or that I don't trust the NHC.  I just think they are pretty liberal in naming storms these days compared to the past. There is no doubt in my mind that the NHC, when it comes to tracking these storms, has improved dramatically over years ago.

[Animal]

Storm total 1.3

 

[Animal]

Saw philly airport over 4 inches!

[Animal]

10 hours ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

1.3 final...maybe rain was harder locally etc

[Snowshack]

13 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Nothing burger in Wading River.

Occasional squalls when a band moves through. 

Occasional sun. 

Mainly just fast moving clouds and some wind.

Water is a bit odd. Swells from the NE. Wind from the SE. The effect on moored boats is to be pushed off short to the NW yet get a broadside slam from the east. 

 

.35” total up the road from you.  Too bad, could have used a good soaking.  

[Allsnow]

Solid storm. It did enough tree damage around town to make a impact. It was cool watching the circulation pass over head on radar.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A real tropical system (although may have been more hybrid in the end) making landfall in NJ is quite notable anytime, particularly in the 1st half of July. Thankfully it was a home grown development that just blew up last night and small in size, not a huge system like Irene or Sandy that would've caused big surge flooding. On the east side LI would've gotten hit much worse in that case. This was something like a 12/30/00 of tropical systems. 

I'll be honest that it was a decent wind event but overall lame where I am. Max here I'd say was about 40mph, there's some small branches/twigs on my street. A little over 0.6" at FRG (closest station to me) and ISP, 40-50 mph gusts if you were lucky, and the heavy rain lasting maybe an hour other than showers here and there with no severe that I know of on the east side was a letdown. NYC, NJ and western Nassau did well but models generally did have the good rain extending further east than what ended up happening. Consensus still did have the western half of Suffolk getting to maybe 1.5". Those lame HRRR runs and couple of GFS, NAM runs ended up being right. Don't want to say a bust on the rain, but.... The east side of a tropical system up here is nowhere to be if you want good rain (Other than Irene-it tracked just west of me in Long Beach and I still had over 5" of rain). The track ended up being just west of the NHC path as well, went almost due north from where it formed instead of NNE. The ground will be baked in a couple days again with the 90+ heat incoming. 

If you noticed the rainfall and wind patterns with Sandy, there were some similarities with Fay (on a much smaller scale.)  Like you said, because of its much smaller size, there wasn't a surge component, but we knew that wasn't going to happen from the beginning. As far as rainfall and wind, the similar tracks the two shared (going into Atlantic City) placed the heaviest rainfall in Delaware in both cases and in both cases the effects were strongest from Nassau County westward.  Fay produced about half the rainfall and half the winds that Sandy had (which means in reality it was only 1/4 as strong, and that's before accounting for its much smaller size.)  Neither Sandy nor Fay produced as much tropical storm effects from Suffolk County northeastward.  I've always maintained that Suffolk County has much more of a New England climate (this holds true both in the winter and summer) and the storms that are most likely to affect them also affect Boston.  The storms that affect NYC and Nassau County the strongest belong to a different class altogether- the Midatlantic group- which also affect Delaware and New Jersey.  During the 2010s and apparently going right into 2020 we've seen much more of the latter variety.   There are many other examples of this (again during both the summer and winter)- Sandy, the Millenium storm you referenced and of course the Snowicane in late February 2010 come to mind immediately.  Irene was also part of this pattern and I recall you were in Long Beach for that one.  That would have been a better place to be with this one also.  I expect this pattern to continue into the future with the much warmer sea surface temps we now have.

Now looking forward to hitting 100 degrees later next week in this eventful and perhaps historic summer we have oncoming!

 

[donsutherland1]

The passage of Tropical Storm Fay brought a swath of 2”-4” rain with some locally higher amounts. Some totals:

Allentown: 1.92”

Atlantic City: 3.24”

New York City:

...JFK: 2.33” (old daily record: 0.86”, 1969)

...LGA: 2.45”

...NYC: 2.54” (old daily record: 1.94”, 1874)

Newark: 2.78” (old daily record: 1.96”, 1950)

Philadelphia: 4.15” (old daily record: 2.99”, 1931)

Wilmington, DE: 2.76” (old daily record: 1.95”, 1917)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The only problem with that is there is a big difference between maximum gusts and sustained winds. Look I don't want to sound like I didn't think it was a good storm or that I don't trust the NHC.  I just think they are pretty liberal in naming storms these days compared to the past. There is no doubt in my mind that the NHC, when it comes to tracking these storms, has improved dramatically over years ago.

It's been stated by a few experts that the winds projected near the center of these systems are hardly ever experienced on land.  The usual difference between what's projected and what's actually experienced is about 15% (on average).  That also happens to be the average difference between sustained winds and gusts.  Looking around, the highest sustained winds experienced on land happen to be around 45 mph.  That's close enough to the 15% figure.  Also, please recall that the 60 mph sustained winds were projected while the center was still over water- about 25-30 miles offshore.  It's actual landfall intensity was 50 mph.  So I dont believe there was much of a discrepancy here.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The passage of Tropical Storm Fay brought a swath of 2”-4” rain with some locally higher amounts. Some totals:

Allentown: 1.92”

Atlantic City: 3.24”

New York City:

...JFK: 2.33” (old daily record: 0.86”, 1969)

...LGA: 2.45”

...NYC: 2.54” (old daily record: 1.94”, 1874)

Newark: 2.78” (old daily record: 1.96”, 1950)

Philadelphia: 4.15” (old daily record: 2.99”, 1931)

Wilmington, DE: 2.76” (old daily record: 1.95”, 1917)

It kept raining most of the night here, Don, it was actually amazing with all the fireflies out   Do you happen to have any figures for MPO?  I've been on vacation about halfway between ABE and MPO, coming back tomorrow!  It rained all night in NE PA and there were flood warnings all over the area. Based on the rainfall maps Walt posted, looks like I got the same 2.00-2.50 here that I got back at home in Nassau County!

Was the maximum official wind gust in our area the 45 mph at JFK?

 

 

[mgerb]

 

1 hour ago, Animal said:

1.3 final...maybe rain was harder locally etc

How bizarre. *shrug*

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Animal said:

Saw philly airport over 4 inches!

I looked through Walt's numbers and basically from Delaware through SE PA and Southern and South Central NJ up to Ocean County the totals were between 4-7" with the 7" amounts towards the southern end in Delaware.  From Monmouth County north to encompass most of the area east to Nassau County the totals were between 2" to 4" with the 4" extreme end confined to the southern part of the area in Monmouth County.  Most of our area saw between 2"-3" except for our friends in Suffolk County who sadly only got 0.1-0.5".  I didn't see CT numbers but I expect they were also on the lower end, but not as low as Suffolk County, maybe more like 1-2", like around where the lower Hudson Valley ended up.

Thanks to that stream of precip that kept going all night in NW areas, my location here in NE PA had around the same 2.50" I got back home in SW Nassau County!

 

 

[lee59]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

 

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It kept raining most of the night here, Don, it was actually amazing with all the fireflies out   Do you happen to have any figures for MPO?  I've been on vacation about halfway between ABE and MPO, coming back tomorrow!  It rained all night in NE PA and there were flood warnings all over the area. Based on the rainfall maps Walt posted, looks like I got the same 2.00-2.50 here that I got back at home in Nassau County!

Was the maximum official wind gust in our area the 45 mph at JFK?

 

 

The highest was a 52mph at a place called St. George, I will assume it is on the water in Suffolk. Other than that Kennedy and Gilgo Beach had gusts to 46mph. The highest sustained was a few in the upper 30s but most in the 20s to around 30. The national weather service has it listed. The rain in Nassau County was generally 1-2 inches, more west and less east.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

The highest was a 52mph at a place called St. George, I will assume it is on the water in Suffolk. Other than that Kennedy and Gilgo Beach had gusts to 46mph. The highest sustained was a few in the upper 30s but most in the 20s to around 30. The national weather service has it listed.

Thanks- I think St George might be in Staten Island?  The name sounds familiar- I've seen it before.  The highest winds were on the central and southern NJ coast where there were reports of 57 mph gusts (one in southern Monmouth County and another one in southern NJ near Cape May I think.)  On Long Island I think those two 46 mph gusts were the two highest reports, although I saw DMillz mention that he had a 55 mph gust?  I dont see that mentioned in any report though.

 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks- I think St George might be in Staten Island?  The name sounds familiar- I've seen it before.  The highest winds were on the central and southern NJ coast where there were reports of 57 mph gusts (one in southern Monmouth County and another one in southern NJ near Cape May I think.)  On Long Island I think those two 46 mph gusts were the two highest reports, although I saw DMillz mention that he had a 55 mph gust?  I dont see that mentioned in any report though.

 

I looked it up and St. George is in Staten Island on the water, so that gusts makes sense.

[gravitylover]

1.1 storm total, 1.6 for 7 days. While it has been damp here for over a week it's not really that wet, wet enough for plants to flop over in the garden though  

[LibertyBell]

49 mph gust at Bridgeport.....is this legit?  if so it's the highest wind gust reported at one of our local area official reporting stations.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

49 mph gust at Bridgeport.....is this legit?  if so it's the highest wind gust reported at one of our local area official reporting stations.

 

I'm 5 miles from there-yeah legit-you could hear it roaring over night.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm 5 miles from there-yeah legit-you could hear it roaring over night.

what time did you have your highest winds?  It was really windy up here all night I could hear stuff being blown around in my yard most of the night and knocking into stuff (I fell asleep around 2 am and it was still going on even then!)

 

[LoboLeader1]

Fwiw TWC stated this AM that Greenwich also had 49mph wind gust yesterday.

[lee59]

24 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Fwiw TWC stated this AM that Greenwich also had 49mph wind gust yesterday.

Yes that is in the National Weather Service report.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007110126-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

 

Here are rain totals:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Good observations noted in these pages. I like the Suffolk-BOS and relating Sandy-Fay.  I add this but kind of late... New England qpf assessment.  No sure if there is a plot somewhere of all our forum area (observed)?  

[lee59]

All I can find for the N.J. observations (MT. Holly) is peak wind gusts of Trenton 33, Philly 42, Georgetown Delaware 43 and Atlantic City 44mph. also Reading Pa. 30.

[anemone]

Is that the center of Fay over the Pennsylvania, NY border heading east? Last I checked the center was moving north through the city. Or is that a different system that absorbed Fay's energy?

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It kept raining most of the night here, Don, it was actually amazing with all the fireflies out   Do you happen to have any figures for MPO?  I've been on vacation about halfway between ABE and MPO, coming back tomorrow!  It rained all night in NE PA and there were flood warnings all over the area. Based on the rainfall maps Walt posted, looks like I got the same 2.00-2.50 here that I got back at home in Nassau County!

Was the maximum official wind gust in our area the 45 mph at JFK?

 

 

2.71” at MPO. 

Bridgeport reported a 49 mph gust. I suspect that there were probably a few 50 mph gusts on the South Shore of Long Island, but one might not know for sure unless there is an updated PNS or when the NHC issues it’s end-of-season report.

[lee59]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

2.71” at MPO. 

Bridgeport reported a 49 mph gust. I suspect that there were probably a few 50 mph gusts on the South Shore of Long Island, but one might not know for sure unless there is an updated PNS or when the NHC issues it’s end-of-season report.

I listed what the NWS posted, above. I believe it is unofficial. Doesn't look like to many if any 50 plus happened.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, anemone said:

Is that the center of Fay over the Pennsylvania, NY border heading east? Last I checked the center was moving north through the city. Or is that a different system that absorbed Fay's energy?

What is left of Fay is up in Canada. That is a different system.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

I listed what the NWS posted, above. I believe it is unofficial. Doesn't look like to many if any 50 plus happened.

Yes. That’s why we may need to wait for the final reporting.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks- I think St George might be in Staten Island?  The name sounds familiar- I've seen it before.  The highest winds were on the central and southern NJ coast where there were reports of 57 mph gusts (one in southern Monmouth County and another one in southern NJ near Cape May I think.)  On Long Island I think those two 46 mph gusts were the two highest reports, although I saw DMillz mention that he had a 55 mph gust?  I dont see that mentioned in any report though.

 

Yeah, that 52 mph gust was just to the NE of St George at the Robbins Reef Lighthouse.

 

[Ericjcrash]

22 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

 

 

 

That's fine. I've always respected your input and expertise....Cantore agreed off script on national TV  but I guess I hes an internet dweeb too. I wasn't at all trying to downplay the system, but it really wasnt all that tropical in my internet dweeb opinion.