PB-99 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro goes East overnight with most of the heavy Rain confined to LI and Sne. If this were January with a cold air mass in place snowman and warlock would have Anthony out on a bridge ready to jump. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Everything went East except the nam and gfs. The RGEM is so Far East that it only effects southeast mass Check out 6z Euro Alot of rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, PB-99 said: If this were January with a cold air mass in place snowman and warlock would have Anthony out on a bridge ready to jump. Bullseye near your house on the 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check out 6z Euro Alot of rain for the area Yep went back west on the 6z run. RGEM is way east this AM, other models west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Yep went back west on the 6z run. RGEM is way east this AM, other models west. Feels good tracking something again Lets hope we have a busy winter ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 06z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Nws really downplaying any wind potential for the island. I think there will be more wind then forecast, these hybrid type systems are generally good wind producers in the SE quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, PB-99 said: If this were January with a cold air mass in place snowman and warlock would have Anthony out on a bridge ready to jump. ..... as the forecast verified/intensified to biblical proportions they would probably trade places with him. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just like tracking winter storms models still suck. We are about 30 hours from rain beginning and models are all over the place with track and areas of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Just like tracking winter storms models still suck. We are about 30 hours from rain beginning and models are all over the place with track and areas of heavy rain. The heavy rain is not that widespread so the axis is going to bounce around a bit. Looks almost like boxing day where there will be a sharp cutoff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The heavy rain is not that widespread so the axis is going to bounce around a bit. Looks almost like boxing day where there will be a sharp cutoff looks like a fast mover too...the 12z Nam shows most of the rain done by the evening tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The heavy rain is not that widespread so the axis is going to bounce around a bit. Looks almost like boxing day where there will be a sharp cutoff Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 nothing all that exciting on the NAM-in and out in 6-8 hrs with 2 inches or less of rain for many areas and another tick east and many wont see much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 i wouldn't use the nam for a tropical system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nothing all that exciting on the NAM-in and out in 6-8 hrs with 2 inches or less of rain for many areas and another tick east and many wont see much at all. Forecasts have Friday and Saturdat being terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nws really downplaying any wind potential for the island. I think there will be more wind then forecast, these hybrid type systems are generally good wind producers in the SE quadrant Far from certain we’d be in the SE quadrant. Honestly if this low goes west of us it likely spends too much time inland for it to be too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 This won’t be a high impact storm. It’ll be good for the brown lawns and winds will increase for a while but it’ll be in and out way too quick for much else. Many of us are considered abnormally dry so little flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forecasts have Friday and Saturdat being terrible Saturday could turn out ok-looks like this moves away quickly-maybe some late day storms Sat but I don't see a total washout like friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Looks like the westerly shear has dissipated a bit and the system is getting slightly better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 12z RGEM is west of its 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nws really downplaying any wind potential for the island. I think there will be more wind then forecast, these hybrid type systems are generally good wind producers in the SE quadrant None of the models have any wind it’s very weak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Gfs still far west into nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs still far west into nj Jackpot over eastern PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Jackpot over eastern PA Its not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 anyone have access to the hurricane models? If so pls post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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