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Tropical Storm Fay


wdrag
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like you’re going to end up too far East for high impacts away from the immediate shore.

Agreed as for rainfall. We have a decent band moving in now, so i think we get a solid 1"+. Winds i wouldnt sleep on. I wouldnt be surprised if even inland LI gusts to 45-50

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Agreed as for rainfall. We have a decent band moving in now, so i think we get a solid 1"+. Winds i wouldnt sleep on. I wouldnt be surprised if even inland LI gusts to 45-50

You also have the best shot at seeing a tornado or water spout.

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Just now, SI Mailman said:
9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
The heavy rain band coming into the NYC metro area looks like it means business.

I've been sitting in my mail truck the last half hour waiting for it to lighten up. Fortunately I got an early start and am still ahead of schedule.

I'm still waiting for todays mail...

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Many reports of 6 to as 8" in the the Rehoboth area of coastal DE and have seen reports up to 6.5" in s NJ.  No winds higher than gale force (TS gusts and a few TS sustained). This per wundermap.   Updated at 121P. See no lightning in all this warm process rain.  Of greatest concern: STP's are wayyyyy to low in NJ and possibly not set to the tropical algorithm?  Unsure but unless the wundermap is wrong,  STP does not represent reality very well today. 

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Just now, tdp146 said:

Winds picked up a little out here. Even a 20mph gust “looks” worse in summer blowing though dense oak trees. 30-40mph would probably start taking down limbs here and there. 

ISP gusted to 25 top of the hour, so we are getting there. By 6-7 we will be cranking. We had a nice big gust a few minutes ago

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Just now, wdrag said:

Many reports of 6 to as 8" in the the Rehoboth area of coastal DE and have seen reports up to 6.5" in s NJ.  No winds higher than gale force (TS gusts and a few TS sustained). This per wundermap. 

LI will be on the eastern end of the storm, unlike any of the reporting sites. It will be interesting to see what she brings.

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P.  00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS.  Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. 

 

One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens. 

 

Great stuff - is there a link to this?  NWS is so cryptic with its info that things like this are hard to find...

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