RU848789 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 3:30 PM, NJwx85 said: Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches. Expand Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective). Also, not sure how "tropical" this system will really be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:01 PM, Brian5671 said: Jackpot over eastern PA Expand I'm actually in eastern PA for this one, vs being in SW Long Island lol. See that darkest shade of purple in eastern PA? I'm in the northern part of that dark blob, about 2,000 ft in elevation (near Lake Harmony.) Do you really think the impacts here will be worse vs my "regular" home in SW Nassau County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:15 PM, RU848789 said: Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective). Expand It should be ventilated by the trough building into the Ohio Valley. Good timing as a day later and it would have kicked it OTS instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Looks like it will be 4-5" here in the Poconos vs 1-2" at my regular home on the south shore of Nassau County. Forecasts are for wind gusts up to 50 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:17 PM, LibertyBell said: I'm actually in eastern PA for this one, vs being in SW Long Island lol. See that darkest shade of purple in eastern PA? I'm in the northern part of that dark blob, about 2,000 ft in elevation (near Lake Harmony.) Do you really think the impacts here will be worse vs my "regular" home in SW Nassau County?Im in that area this weekend too. Right on Big Boulder Lake.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:21 PM, LibertyBell said: Looks like it will be 4-5" here in the Poconos vs 1-2" at my regular home on the south shore of Nassau County. Forecasts are for wind gusts up to 50 mph? Expand Only the gfs is really showing this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:21 PM, Superstorm said: Im in that area this weekend too. Right on Big Boulder Lake. . Expand Hi there, neighbor! :-) I guess you too got those storms yesterday? We've gotten heavy rains every other day this week- Monday, Wednesday and now hopefully Friday. I'll be back in Long Island next week and hope to catch a 100 degree day there at the end of the week ;-) This is exciting weather for summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:26 PM, Stormlover74 said: Only the gfs is really showing this Expand The only non junk model in the East camp was the 00z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 12z HWRF is running now. That will be telling of any East trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:36 PM, lee59 said: As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds. Expand often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low. With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:38 PM, Brian5671 said: often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low. With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east Expand Another garbage model lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:36 PM, lee59 said: As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds. Expand Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 12z HWRF is west and slower. Center is in Maryland at 15z Friday instead of SW NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:43 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF is west and slower. Center is in Maryland at 15z Friday instead of SW NJ. Expand that would give us very little rain I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:36 PM, lee59 said: As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds. Expand Heavy rain in any tropical type system up here is west of the track. That will shift as it comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:38 PM, Brian5671 said: often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low. With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east Expand The CMC? That gives us a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:47 PM, jm1220 said: Heavy rain in any tropical type system up here is west of the track. That will shift as it comes north. Expand Right, this has happened numerous times..... heaviest rainfall is west of the track and highest winds are east of the track. Floyd illustrated this well, but there were numerous other examples of this. Another example is Bertha from July 1996 that came over JFK with 65 mph winds.....Babylon recorded hurricane force gusts at around 75 mph but the heaviest rains were over the Poconos where 7" of rain was recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:47 PM, SnoSki14 said: The CMC? That gives us a lot of rain. Expand RGEM does. CMC is well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:50 PM, Brian5671 said: RGEM does. CMC is well east Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:54 PM, Stormlover74 said: Expand my bad-I had the 0z run...I stand corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 i think this hugs the coast. tropical systems with relatively weak steering are tough to get far inland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 the hrwf isn't all that different from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:54 PM, Stormlover74 said: Expand Sold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 12z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 5:00 PM, forkyfork said: the hrwf isn't all that different from 6z Expand It shifted West of the previous run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 you're paying too much attention to the mini low centers and not the general circulation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 5:25 PM, forkyfork said: you're paying too much attention to the mini low centers and not the general circulation Expand Regardless as to the exact track of the low, the rain made it much further into PA than the prior run. It's going to matter with such a compact system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 NHC 2PM TWO: 90% chance of forming a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/9/2020 at 4:40 PM, NJwx85 said: Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track. Expand This is true in most cases, Hurricane Gloria and Bob both examples. This is not completely tropical at this point and the precip could be well north of the center and more directly above the center rather than completely west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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