Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: They’ve gone plaid Would not be surprised. This system developing has been like watching paint dry. So slow and now it looks like we may be spared if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: I have a hard time believing Fay gets yanked hard left like that IMO we see Fay hug the coast before landfall east of NYC on LI Believe it. There’s an upper level low over the GL that I mentioned a couple days ago that looks to want to become a playa with all this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 This will end up in buffalo when all is said and done lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: And stats from TS Irene which I believe has a similar track Irene was worse than Sandy in RI. No power for 10 days and no cell phones for 6-7 in Coventry/West Greenwich. Was more annoying than anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've seen like 70-73 You are talking official station dews, he’s talking backyard Davis. Models print dews as they think the ASOS will report, not forested backyards. If they are showing 75-78F dews, Kev probably sees Iowa cornfield 82-84F on his Davis console, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: 18z GFS says hello Philly... Did the 18z initialize with all the recon info? I have the feeling 00z might be a better indicator as all that information recorded will be fully ingested along with proper center coordinates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Believe it. There’s an upper level low over the GL that I mentioned a couple days ago that looks to want to become a playa with all this. We’ll take the NHC experts over an off hour FV3 run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the NHC experts over an off hour FV3 run lol Guess you ignored the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Guess you ignored the Euro. It was the NHC track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 And lol at tossing off hour runs of global models now. This isn’t 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 For those who want to get psyched up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: For those who want to get psyched up... I wonder how many are left that were old enough to remember it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Euro / EPS massive agreement on NYC up into W NE. Locked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: I wonder how many are left that were old enough to remember it? wxfella sheltered in place with a fine young lady that evening. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take the NHC experts over an off hour FV3 run lol So your not ignoring the 18Z GFS? It’s location is virtually identical to the Euro thru 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: wxfella sheltered in place with a fine young lady that evening. Tinder by telegraph 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: So your not ignoring the 18Z GFS? It’s location is virtually identical to the Euro thru 00z Saturday. You had it up into PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Tinder by telegraph Was tough to send nudes back then. It was always a surprise when the carriage rolled up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You had it up into PA Where did I say that? I see no reason why this doesn’t have the potential to ride up near/over far eastern PA, like Philly. It all depends on how developed this Storm becomes. If it’s weak and diffuse, then the trough GL will have more influence (ie phasing) over it. If I not then the ULL will act more to steer it keeping the system long the coast. The Euro has already made a huge jump from being a storm over SE MA to now riding up the Hudson. Why can’t it keep correcting west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Levi just put out a tropical discussion on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Someone should start a obs thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And lol at tossing off hour runs of global models now. This isn’t 2005. 2020 says it wishes this was 2005. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Where did I say that? I see no reason why this doesn’t have the potential to ride up near/over far eastern PA, like Philly. It all depends on how developed this Storm becomes. If it’s weak and diffuse, then the trough GL will have more influence (ie phasing) over it. If I not then the ULL will act more to steer it keeping the system long the coast. The Euro has already made a huge jump from being a storm over SE MA to now riding up the Hudson. Why can’t it keep correcting west? Because that’s not where we want it. We need everyone to concentrate really hard to try and steer it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Because that’s not where we want it. We need everyone to concentrate really hard to try and steer it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 We need more posts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Heck 38 even had epic wind damage up here. In case anyone wants to geek out on reading the signs of the 38 hurricane damage in the woods of VT https://northernwoodlands.org/articles/article/hurricane-1938 Quote Foster’s colleague Emery Boose has created computer models that reproduce the conditions of historical hurricanes. By entering weather observations and historical documentation of damage on a town-by-town basis, Boose created a model of the storm track and speed, the timing of arrival at any location, and the wind speed and direction for that location over the duration of the storm. I asked him to run the model for Taplin Hill in Corinth, and he sent me an Excel spreadsheet showing, among other things, wind speed and direction at 5-minute intervals. From it, I could chart the rise and fall of the wind, the period at which it reached its peak, and the ongoing change in direction as the center passed to the west. It matched up well with eyewitness reports and newspaper accounts. The strongest sustained winds were between 8 and 9 p.m. at 77 miles per hour, with gusts reaching 117 miles per hour. They came from the east and then slightly south of east (from 93 to 119 degrees). Our land, only four miles away, would have experienced the same wind speed and direction. And our hillside, with its 30 percent slope facing east, definitely wore a bull’s-eye, which makes the continued presence of Andrew Jackson, the 180-year-old sugar maple, even more impressive. Quote This hillside, like others blown down in the hurricane, is pockmarked with deep depressions adjacent to correspondingly large mounds. This pit and mound topography looks as if somebody dug a hole and piled the dirt next to it, and it happens anytime the wind uproots a tree. As the roots are ripped from the ground, they carry a mass of soil and stone, excavating a hole. The bigger the tree, the bigger the hole. Over time, the roots and stump decompose, leaving a mound of earth. One of the more interesting things about this topography is that decades after the tree went down you can stand in the pit, look out across the mound, and see exactly where the tree fell. The 1938 hurricane’s winds came from the southeast, so the conventional wisdom has long held that trees fell to the northwest. But on our hillside, most of the pit and mound pairs faced east, downhill. Something was wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 18 Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 way west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Looks like we may salvage a decent weekend here after all. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, klw said: In case anyone wants to geek out on reading the signs of the 38 hurricane damage in the woods of VT https://northernwoodlands.org/articles/article/hurricane-1938 Fantastic read thank you. In 1993 as a grad student I published a paper on the effects of forest ecology from Hurricanes. I used the Harvard Forest extensively. Good stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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