Modfan2 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. Thinking beyond 98L, the basin is warm. Even up this way. With the upper level pattern it’s only going to get warmer. The intraseasonal environment has been such that even the most marginal crap has been able to develop in odd places this early in the season. When the wave train really gets going it could be trouble for someone. Not here () but you look at the overall environment and it’s as intriguing as it gets. I agree, thinking New England’s 30 year Hurricane drought might come to an end this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I can’t believe in a NE strike until it’s on the doorstep, but the overall peak of the season looks to be robust to say the least. Turning to today, 98L has a lot of convection offshore this morning. Not a whole lot of organization though. Watch the hot towers. If they are consistent enough we could get a new vortex to form. For meaningful tropical development to occur, 98L must take advantage of the warm waters off the coast. Convection is right over the Gulf Stream. Looks like a hot mess right now. Circulation is somewhere around the SC/GA border. This doesn’t look like anything more then a tropical wave. Don’t see any true organization of it as it moves up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 Pinning down the timing of the heaviest rainfall is pretty brutal but looks like we could see multiple bands or waves of heavy rainfall move through. Also, want to reiterate that the BEST potential for any severe convection is not necessarily with this system but Saturday/Sunday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Get the sandbags ready on the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 18 hours ago, weatherwiz said: An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail. Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995. Dare I ask what the "D" is? Dry? Dews? Dunkin? Darwin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Dare I ask what the "D" is? Dry? Dews? Dunkin? Darwin? derecho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: derecho ...lol. Oh, I forgot about that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Heaviest rain would like be to the N and NW side of the circulation. Some guidance puts this in western New England and SE NY. To the east probably would be a quick burst of rain followed by some SCT downpours and humid srly breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heaviest rain would like be to the N and NW side of the circulation. Some guidance puts this in western New England and SE NY. To the east probably would be a quick burst of rain followed by some SCT downpours and humid srly breezes. Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 12z NAM should be a laugher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting. yeah for sure. If this can certainly develop into something and move northward at a fast enough clip then things would certainly be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like a hot mess right now. Circulation is somewhere around the SC/GA border. This doesn’t look like anything more then a tropical wave. Don’t see any true organization of it as it moves up the coast. I’ll take the other side of this. The CoC is further northeast, and there has been a recent blow up of convection right in that location. I think much better shot this surprises to the upside—intensity wise—than the opposite..Next 6-10 hrs will be quite telling, as it remains over the Gulf Stream. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: Dare I ask what the "D" is? Dry? Dews? Dunkin? Darwin? Dinky’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 it's confusing where to post.. here or the tropical thread.. I guess the tropical thread is just to monitor stuff and we would use a new one to focus on a particular system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 NAM is drier and a bit west-storm moves fast in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 To bad its the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 that is some crazy lift for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Recon cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that is some crazy lift for July. Strongest UVVs are in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Nothin burger on the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 i was hoping for a decent rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 icon is wetter but still has the axis of heavy rain NJ/NY/WCT.. but in reality will depend on where the center forms.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 NAM is basically just a sprinkle here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 32 minutes ago, dendrite said: Strongest UVVs are in summer. Yes you’re right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 ULL over the GL looks like a playa in this whole setup. 12z GFS has tropical low tugged back westward sort of like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Has SNE ever experienced a tropical system to evolve in this sort of set up? (ie cross the eastern gulf into the Carolinas then go offshore and redevelop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Has SNE ever experienced a tropical system to evolve in this sort of set up? (ie cross the eastern gulf into the Carolinas then go offshore and redevelop? Many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Ukie is East of American models. Keeps circulation intact just offshore and up over SE MA. Deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 lol 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie is East of American models. Keeps circulation intact just offshore and up over SE MA. Deluge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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