weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Possibly a low end Cat 1 for sure. Winds are only 40 to 45 right now at sea, any interaction with the land will disrupt the organization. NJ and SLI probably hit hardest on the wind front then of course you have the Tstorm gusts either gust fronts or microbursts. Agreed...strongest winds for sure across NJ and southern Long Island...and even there not a huge deal...maybe gusts 40-50 mph. If there is strong enough convection maybe someone gusts to like 60. Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, you never know. If this were able to get its act together over the EC sooner it may have been a bit stronger. As is, this is pretty impressive for our latitude for this time of year. Didn't get the crapping on this system yesterday lol. Recon is en route to get a center fix. Will be helpful to see the heading too. Last night recon saw a NNE heading on the center for a bit. Yeah there certainly was room for this to be a bit stronger but...actually really wasn't far off from that occurring I don't think. I agree, this is pretty impressive for this time of year. I don't get the crapping on this system either...but if someone isn't seeing crazy weather in their backyard then a system is garbage...I mean which is fine...too each their own but don't go around calling something crappy or garbage just b/c you're not seeing anything. It's like everyone has the mentality of significant damage or nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 At least the weekend looks okay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think you could make the argument that if the max vorticity associated with the trough in the Gulf were instead over the Atlantic, say, just off the FL coast, this would be a much stronger solution. This system had an impressive surface circulation originally, but spent days over land before emerging off the EC. This setup also speaks to how difficult it is to get tropical up here. You adjust that trough a bit and this might have been more of a kicker than anything else. These windows for NE tropical impacts are extraordinarily small. Especially this time of year. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 BOX met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX met yup...late overnight and tomorrow could be interesting...guidance not showing much developing, however, should something pop many favorable ingredients. Tomorrow thinks could start popping by 10-11 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Blue is latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Max gusts and rain So much destruction en route per that depiction. NE tropical threats are as scintillating as Wiz's severe threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Blue is latest Hudson Valley track...a precursor to winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Tropical Storm Winds extending farther west of the center per latest update Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY... Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm- force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay. This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the southern Delaware Bay. A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for Fay. $$ Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, Ocean City gusted to TS force a little over an hour ago. I thought they should have issued TS Warnings for that area when this was classified yesterday. Recon is in the storm and found an extrapolated surface pressure of 998.5 mb. Not bad. Naked swirl though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Headed to NJ for LFNj has had an active summer so farSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 She's naked. Here's hoping for a severe t-storm or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 It's definitely not totally tropical. May be some separation from the low and mid level centers. And yeah watch tomorrow aftn. Otherwise, Fay is yawn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's definitely not totally tropical. May be some separation from the low and mid level centers. And yeah watch tomorrow aftn. Otherwise, Fay is yawn here. Not sure if it's model error but there is like a small pocket of pretty steep lapse rates that tries to get overhead. I see at least a few wet microbursts tomorrow along with potential for a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Early season tropical storm heading up the east coast. I'm reminded of one of the best episodes in TV history and want to play some Dire Straights. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Cathedrals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 This sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX met Loconto is down there now?! He was good at BTV, always enjoyed talking snow. Stealing some talent. Hopefully we picked up some prospects for that trade at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Looks like forward speed continues to slowly increase. Heaviest rain here could legit be done by like 7-8 PM (in CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Blue is latest Vermont to SeNE 2020: first we stole your snow, then we stole your heat, now we steal your tropical storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 quite muggy out there right now, 74.6/74 on the Davis. Off and on misery mist right now, shrooms growing everywhere, probably don't need much rain at this point. Looks like coastal DE and parts of Southern NJ have seen 3-6 inches of rain so far, not too bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 To me this is ideal. A nice soaking rain in the middle of summer and wind gusts that don’t get too bad and start harming the garden and the fruit. Who needs a tropical storm with Highwinds and flooding rains in mid summer? That’s crazy save that for September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 A bit of an increase in convection northwest of Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1281575259829936128?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1281575259829936128?s=21 that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1281575259829936128?s=21 Doesn't mean anything. It will hug Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 HRRR looking a little wetter, just looking for a nice drink for the grass. with such a sultry airmass I'm sure we will see some solid downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 it's back to You Tube to watch more hurricane Gloria and Bob videos lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: HRRR looking a little wetter, just looking for a nice drink for the grass. with such a sultry airmass I'm sure we will see some solid downpours ? Looks shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn't mean anything. It will hug Jersey shore. Tracking the center of a naked swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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