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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Of the rain variety lol. 

Yeah, the fact that the highlight of my winter was some flakes in mid May says it all. The title of this thread would work well to describe last winter with one minor amendment: "Drought ending rains and severe dejection."

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29 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Lol wow... They really deleted it? It's a God damn online forum. People want to talk. Let them talk. 

I think the question becomes, do you want a weather forum to become social media, with all the vitriol that goes along with it?  It looked like things were getting personal at the end.  Sometimes you're better off not knowing the political leanings of your online "friends", so you can just banter about the weather and enjoy it.

To keep my post on topic - seems like QPF is down across the board for most of eastern New England on all the 00z models.  Only the 12K nam gives any areas more than an inch east of the CT river... was hoping this could be a nice soaker for the garden...

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Was a bit surprised to see TOR probs increased to 5% later today.  Not seeing much model support for enough 3km CAPE...I'm not totally sure what numbers you would want to look for in this situation but I would wager you would like to see at least 75-100+ J of 3km CAPE. There actually could be potential for a brief tornado late tomorrow morning - late afternoon should we get anything to develop...CAMS though sort of keep convection just west of here. 

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Slight risk for parts of coastal SNE


   ...Northeast and southern New England coastal areas...

   Tropical storm Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
   continue moving northward, and the center should be located near the
   central NJ coast by early this evening. Shear in the 0-1 km layer
   will increase from coastal NJ through coastal southern New England
   later today where near-surface dewpoints will reach the low 70s F.
   Best tornado threat with low-topped supercells will evolve during
   the afternoon into the early evening if some surface heating can
   occur between outer rainbands.

DSG7yMn.png

Yeah. We TOR

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If Long island Sound water temperatures were much warmer I would say we probably would see a few brief tornadoes today. If anything though, I think the greatest potential for a brief tornado would actually be across inland CT...away from the shoreline...only b/c the colder waters I think will act to sort of stabilize things around the boundary layer and there will be a bit more llvl instability inland. This typically goes against what you would expect for TOR potential with a TC but the time of year is a little screwy .

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If Long island Sound water temperatures were much warmer I would say we probably would see a few brief tornadoes today. If anything though, I think the greatest potential for a brief tornado would actually be across inland CT...away from the shoreline...only b/c the colder waters I think will act to sort of stabilize things around the boundary layer and there will be a bit more llvl instability inland. This typically goes against what you would expect for TOR potential with a TC but the time of year is a little screwy .

 

download (4).png

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

I was thinking about that. If this was late August we might have a very different situation. 

Plus water temperatures up the entire coast would be much warmer...obviously only speculation but if this scenario was another month or two from now we could possibly be looking at a hurricane. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Plus water temperatures up the entire coast would be much warmer...obviously only speculation but if this scenario was another month or two from now we could possibly be looking at a hurricane. 

Possibly a low end Cat 1 for sure. Winds are only 40 to 45 right now at sea, any interaction with the land will disrupt the organization.  NJ and SLI probably hit hardest on the wind front then of course you have the Tstorm gusts either gust fronts or microbursts. 

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