Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive. BOX begs to differ Additionally, we can`t rule out a few isolated severe thunderstorms which could spawn an isolated tornado. Low level wind fields are quite favorable for strong rotation (0-1 km shear >25 kts and 0-1 km storm relative helicity >150 m2s2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Yeah could be an iso tor...but not an outbreak or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 The higher helicity I think is more of a product of the stronger llvl flow rather than turning of the winds in the lower levels. However, storm moving may be slightly angled compared to the mean flow so that could certainly enhance rotation potential. Regardless, I don't think instability in the lowest lvls is going to be sufficient enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 one of those fully embedded spinups with super low LCLs maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, radarman said: one of those fully embedded spinups with super low LCLs maybe We should see 4-8 of those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Not good for those central and eastern areas who got dumped on a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 looks like center is trying to reform further east, recon headed out there so data soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NAM is like a 6 hour burst of moderate to heavy rain and that’s it. Looks like the weekend would be salvaged in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I would “Guess” This would be more than 1-2” where the core of rain passes Isn’t iso-tornado about as strong a language as we see in SNE No tornado “outbreak “ ? Follows the trend of zero outbreaks in 200 years here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We should see 4-8 of those lollis to 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3k is still pretty far west. GFS tiebreaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would “Guess” This would be more than 1-2” where the core of rain passes Isn’t iso-tornado about as strong a language as we see in SNE No tornado “outbreak “ ? Follows the trend of zero outbreaks in 200 years here Yep this probably won’t be hurricane Agnes with regard to tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Ill be in Maine where it looks like a lot of rain, looks like Ill be stuck inside with steamers and a few beers We had a big lobster bake planned for Saturday and i think i'm going to call it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: you better quarantine for 14 days No, He doesn't need too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We had a big lobster bake planned for Saturday and i think i'm going to call it off. Should be over by Sat early am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Recon in there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Should be over by Sat early am Maybe down your way, Sucks too, We had some Kings, Rock crab, 2 pecks clams, 30 lobsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: looks like center is trying to reform further east, recon headed out there so data soon. Yea and that’s what the 12z NAM indicated . Granted it’s the nam, but that’s all of the 12z suite we have at the moment. Latest vis does seem to show the convection-less swirl being abandoned for the deep convection east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Recon in there now. Over GA now. so maybe another 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Usually this latitude is where tropical cyclones begin transitioning, non-tropical...BUT 84F SST under that deep convection...Pretty incredible given climo. Certainly conducive to development of a non-sub tropical TC, with hospitable upper level environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe down your way, Sucks too, We had some Kings, Rock crab, 2 pecks clams, 30 lobsters. set up some tents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, Whineminster said: set up some tents Working on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe down your way, Sucks too, We had some Kings, Rock crab, 2 pecks clams, 30 lobsters. I'd do it anyway, thats some good food, you can enjoy it in any type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I’ll get a for this, but this already looking like a marginal TS on vis with LLC east of OBX. The naked swirl is a distraction from what looks increasingly apparent at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would “Guess” This would be more than 1-2” where the core of rain passes Isn’t iso-tornado about as strong a language as we see in SNE No tornado “outbreak “ ? Follows the trend of zero outbreaks in 200 years here 1. No not really 2. We've had our share of tornado outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive. mm, I'm not sure the type of torsional mechanics that twist columns in land falling/land interacting TCs is the same as that which is supplied by the typical shearing structures that you're using there, though. With TCs, what happens is the flow moves from a relative low impeded region, over land where there is an abrupt increase in frictional induced boundary-layer drag; the air must by conservation bend inwards toward lower pressure more so in the 0-3km layer, which instantiates positive shear ... more sub-geostrophic inward, causing a hooked updrafts in the lower 3-km, while the overriding air in the unimpeded 700 mb level is defaulted to increasing bulk shear; a different aspect than suspending a parcel through a vertical column where there's potential vorticity due to bulk shear aspects, synoptically. That's not likely to be modeled well because by convention/state of tech ...models don't resolve that lower layer very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm, I'm not sure the type of torsional mechanics that twist columns in land falling/land interacting TCs is the same as that which is supplied by the typical shearing structures that you're using there, though. With TCs, what happens is the flow moves from a relative low impeded region, over land where there is an abrupt increase in frictional induced boundary-layer drag; the air must by conservation bend inwards toward lower pressure more so in the 0-3km layer, which instantiates positive shear ... more sub-geostrophic inward, causing a hooked updrafts in the lower 3-km; a different aspect than suspending a parcel through a vertical column where there's potential vorticity due to bulk shear aspects/synoptics. That's not likely to be modeled well because by convention/state of tech ...models don't resolve that layer very well I appreciate this information here. I've never fully understood this process with TCs (and can say I've never tried to explore learning...not sure why). My weakest knowledge in this field lies within tropical weather. This though provided a great visual in my head of the physics/processes here and I actually understand much better. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I appreciate this information here. I've never fully understood this process with TCs (and can say I've never tried to explore learning...not sure why). My weakest knowledge in this field lies within tropical weather. This though provided a great visual in my head of the physics/processes here and I actually understand much better. Thank you. yeah... we had two course in tropical up at UML as per curr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah that Mid level vortex has had some staying power and now it looks like a LLC is developing per visible. Might be an interesting flight. Probably a minimal tropical storm when it gets up here but sure is looking good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 1. No not really 2. We've had our share of tornado outbreaks Hmm when I think “outbreak “ I think multiple F2 and above tornados were these outbreaks in western areas or Just a bunch of F-0’s in a landfalling tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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