CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: But you don’t want rain either, ha. Once a week. And this weekend is terrible timing, but that’s my luck and 2020 right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 we hope for a 150mph cane directly into LI. This ain't it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Once a week. And this weekend is terrible timing, but that’s my luck and 2020 right there. Might go far enough west to help out. At least that eastern side of the track will be high humidity regardless of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: But you don’t want rain either, ha. Insufferable posts this summer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Heh...euro is way east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Heh...euro is way east. Nice diffuse rain storm, winds are meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Fay coming . Heading for W LI LF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Heh...euro is way east. Not East enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Go Euro go! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Oops, posted about this in the other thread. American vs Europe models (including Ukie) are night and day. There is a naked swirl well to the WSW of the convection, but I wonder if a new one develops? The tropical models also look into NJ...but this isn't exactly a deep tropical system either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oops, posted about this in the other thread. American vs Europe models (including Ukie) are night and day. There is a naked swirl well to the WSW of the convection, but I wonder if a new one develops? The tropical models also look into NJ...but this isn't exactly a deep tropical system either. It’s a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 European guidance is also slower then the American. I’d hedge towards the slower given how unorganized this looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Go Euro go! Euro just came back further west at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 No model will have an idea until it has a center and they assimilate with that center. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Hopefully with tonight's 0z runs we will have a much better idea of track and placement of heaviest rain. Until this system becomes a bit more organized it's quite difficult to really assess...that's if it even does become a bit more organized. Should this remain rather disorganized we'll still see some very heavy rainfall but there may not be a defined axis of where that occurs. Not sure if we pop anything Saturday afternoon but the potential is there for a few supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No model will have an idea until it has a center and they assimilate with that center. And if it never develops a center it’ll just be chasing the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And if it never develops a center it’ll just be chasing the convection I think it will...but as you said..a hot mess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NAM coming in stronger and looks like it going to deliver a ton of rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NAM floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Ill be in Maine where it looks like a lot of rain, looks like Ill be stuck inside with steamers and a few beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 tropical storm watch possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NAM is pretty wet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: tropical storm watch possible? idk, it's a 1004 low on the NAM.. probably just a breezy day.. the rain will be the story in some areas that are very saturated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Ill be in Maine where it looks like a lot of rain, looks like Ill be stuck inside with steamers and a few beers you better quarantine for 14 days :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: idk, it's a 1004 low on the NAM.. probably just a breezy day.. the rain will be the story in some areas that are very saturated. thanks....being on the east side i'll miss out on the best rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: you better quarantine for 14 days Staying at my sisters house, Ill be quarantined there for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM floods 1-2” for most over like 8-12 hours isn’t exactly flood worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Wet and windy but it's a brief slug of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 1-2” for most over like 8-12 hours isn’t exactly flood worthy. fast mover in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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