weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail. Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 wohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Let’s get some big rains ..some big gusts , and some big swells left over for Saturday in RI beaches Hoping this winds up enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s get some big rains ..some big gusts , and some big swells left over for Saturday in RI beaches Hoping this winds up enough At least there is something to pay attention to during the dullest weather time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 EURO is pretty wet and slow.. landfall central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Maybe a spinner threat too near center and east side. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 There’s a spinner threat Saturday morning with the warm SST’s and high dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 I don't see Ryan posting here much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 If only this was January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Not all of New England saturated over the last few weeks, but ground wet enough that this doesn’t help and may cause Sultan Signal to be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If only this was January. It would be like 48" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: It would be like 48" of snow! That only happens for EMA though so the shift east would begin Thursday...if this was winter. As is, I think this gets more tropically nuked as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 I was wondering when someone would start the very necessary thread called, "Drought Ending Rains and Menial Convection" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 This whole thread a needs matter-energy replicator like in star trek, that can turn it into a baseball bat,...that then bludgeons Kevin whenever he impulsively dooms us with drought fears because a single blade of his lawn's grass turned to straw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Euro looked like weak sauce a 1006 low farting up the coast , let’s tighten up Crazy uncle Ukie was preferred planning on Newport this weekend , maybe swept out from the rocks at the Sachuest point wildlife preserve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Heading out to Fishers this weekend. Pass on the rain and on any wind/waves that might jeopardize the scant inches of sand on my beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 About time we get some rideable surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Croaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 A named storm and an EF1 is all I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Heading to Cape Neddick this weekend, might get 18 in if im lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Surfs up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro looked like weak sauce a 1006 low farting up the coast , let’s tighten up Crazy uncle Ukie was preferred planning on Newport this weekend , maybe swept out from the rocks at the Sachuest point wildlife preserve Euro would take trees down and allow for spinners with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a spinner threat Saturday morning with the warm SST’s and high dews Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors? They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs? Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors? They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs? Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev. In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise” Gotcha, ok that’s what I was thinking but was wondering if there was more of a relationship between actual tornadoes and SSTs... but its more the relationship between convection and the marine layer. Can’t have tors if you don’t get convection and strong updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 The marine flow can stabilize, but with the likelihood of a surge of high dew points along with good convergence and low level shear, it’s not hard to do with just a little CAPE in the lower 3KM. I think ideally you want waters a bit warmer like very late month and in August, but you could do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 This all sounds a bit Ray Bradbury to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you think the warmer than normal SSTs we have currently can offset that? I mean it helps, but you’d probably want it a few degrees warmer. But the potential is there, if we can have a decent low circulation into SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you think the warmer than normal SSTs we have currently can offset that? Not yet everytime the winds go SE we cool and stabilize. Not warm enough yet. Give it a month 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: This all sounds a bit Ray Bradbury to me It will end up being a summer version of Lucy pulls the ball away. Wagons East. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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