wdrag Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 SPC D1 prompts this topic. Have a little concern that todays strongest storms (2-3" rain producers/damaging wind) will be concentrated down in central or s NJ, but some spots in our NY metro from NYC westward should see isolated SVR late today. Think eastern LI is out of it today. However, with the large CAPE axis just s of us, cannot rule out a cluster of drenching thunderstorms forming-developing eastward later tonight and eventually making it to eastern LI. This latter is with considerable uncertainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 This is a rather unusual evolution as shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop should eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only). No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68. Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 52 minutes ago, wdrag said: Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop could eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only). No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68. Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6 Yeh, you can see the Cape advancing to 78 ish. Even the 3k is to the Driscoll too. Maybe a few sneak into the lower boroughs ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: This is a rather unusual evolution as shown... with such weak wind fields storms are going to quickly choke themselves and propogate outward along the outflow boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 The first cell is popping up over the Philadelphia area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Central South Jersey special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 N edge into Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 That’s a pretty cool circular outflow pattern. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Severe Weather Statement Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 241 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 NJC023-025-029-061915- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-200706T1915Z/ Ocean NJ-Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ- 241 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN OCEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTIES... At 240 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Marlboro to Adelphia to near Lakewood to Old Halfway, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Toms River, Long Branch, Asbury Park, Lakewood, Jackson, Howell, Manalapan, Tinton Falls, Beachwood, Manasquan, Point Pleasant Beach, Seaside Heights, Lakehurst, Farmingdale, Mantoloking, Allenwood, East Freehold, West Freehold, Adelphia and Vista Center. This includes the following highways... Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 21 and 34. Garden State Parkway between mile markers 73 and 105. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 4027 7397 4007 7403 3980 7406 3984 7443 3987 7444 4015 7436 4030 7444 TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 252DEG 26KT 4032 7424 4022 7422 4007 7425 3987 7442 HAIL...1.00IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s a pretty cool circular outflow pattern. Came in just to say that. Never seen outflow so pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Looks like we got storms developing over N/C NJ and parts of the city too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Didn’t think the metro would see much but if this outflow makes it into southern parts of the 5 boroughs or Nassau it’s possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 looks like a shelf cloud to my s sw...cloudy now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Flash Flood Emergency out in N Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Flash Flood Emergency out in N Philly. Radar estimates show near 6" of rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, Rjay said: Radar estimates show near 6" of rain there Life threatening for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Some big CTG bolts dropping no more than 1,000 feet away. Major rainmaker, plenty of lightning, not much wind and no hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Came in just to say that. Never seen outflow so pronounced. I have seen circular outflow on radars in other parts of the country. But this may be the first that I can recall around this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 increasing clouds now from a storm just east of Paramus. Trying to get into upper Manhattan/Bronx/Southern Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I have seen circular outflow on radars in other parts of the country. But this may be the first that I can recall around this area. Wow that's a great view. And then I assume the outflow stops the convergence and chokes the storm out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Echoes clipping 65 dBz in EPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Some big CTG bolts dropping no more than 1,000 feet away. Major rainmaker, plenty of lightning, not much wind and no hail. And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 hearing thunder, its getting very dark out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 The training down near Philly is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: The training down near Philly is intense. Stormspotter in that is loving it, lol All these cells missed me so far. I'm guessing @Allsnow is getting it good. 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us? Funny, my sister that is near Lake Nelson said it was pouring, but my mother in law that is by quick check on River Road got nothing. Your area and mine has been missing out on these the past few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us? lol I am at work in NBR is it seriously dry in Piscataway? NBR is getting pasted. 4 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The training down near Philly is intense. Is training the right word? Trains move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, FPizz said: Stormspotter in that is loving it, lol All these cells missed me so far. I'm guessing @Allsnow is getting it good. Funny, my sister that is near Lake Nelson said it was pouring, but my mother in law that is by quick check on River Road got nothing. Your area and mine has been missing out on these the past few weeks. I need that Edison cell to cut SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us? Looks like it was missing my house by a couple miles. But I'm on the Parkway in Monmouth county getting hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now