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Summer 2020 Banter and random observations


Baroclinic Zone
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Paul, you want to watch a real deal RIJ form you just loop that radar through DSM. 

I'm pretty sure a mesovortex developed and set the whole thing off as it crossed through the city.

Gotta figure out how to increase speed but holy shit does that bow out as it crosses through 

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotta figure out how to increase speed but holy shit does that bow out as it crosses through 

 

IMG_4550.mov

To me it looks like a mesovortex forms in the line around Jefferson, IA, and that development kicked off the expansion of the inflow jet aloft. Once it started descending (reflectivity behind the line starts to weaken) that line surges forward through DSM.

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15 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yes it is. Nobody is getting a tax break for schooling going full remote, and on top of that, now many families have to find some sort of child care for that time as well.

Lose lose for everyone.

Worse education (it’s not really close ) and more costs to parents . At some point people (likely after a mediocre vaccine ) will realize they have to live with this virus for a very long time and breathe .

The likelihood of a very effective vaccine seems unlikely and the real data will be phase 3 when they actually test the response on the populations who make up 90% of hospitalizations (obese / smokers / elderly ) and hospital workers in high Covid areas make up a large % of the relatively small number of healthy 20-50 year olds hospitalized that don’t fall into the other co-morbidity’s.

No easy choices , Mose suburbanites aren’t used to not having a painless option.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

To me it looks like a mesovortex forms in the line around Jefferson, IA, and that development kicked off the expansion of the inflow jet aloft. Once it started descending (reflectivity behind the line starts to weaken) that line surges forward through DSM.

I see what you're saying. It's crazy how quick those processes work. Being on the warning desk out there in these situations must make the heart race. That line went from sub-severe to destructive winds in no time. Also noting cells quickly developing behind this line again 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Worse education (it’s not really close ) and more costs to parents . At some point people will realize they have to live with this virus for a very long time and breathe . The likelihood of a very effective vaccine seems unlikely and the real data will be phase 3 when they actually test the response on the populations who make up 90% of hospitalizations (obese / smokers / elderly ) and hospital workers in high Covid areas make up a large % of the relatively small number of healthy 20-50 year olds hospitalized that don’t fall into the other co-morbidity’s.

I know a scientist who works at NIH and the word internally there seems to be that the vaccines being hyped now have a very low chance of being generally effective across the global population. They may work in some limited capacity, perhaps offering some people a degree of immunity for a few months. There is a reason it takes 10 years to develop a successful vaccine that sees widespread use. I think people have been misled into believing a good vaccine is only a few months away.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I see what you're saying. It's crazy how quick those processes work. Being on the warning desk out there in these situations must make the heart race. That line went from sub-severe to destructive winds in no time. Also noting cells quickly developing behind this line again 

Looks like another formed near MIW (causing the 99 mph gust) and now a new descending RIJ has bowed out the line up there.

And the new cells are forming because you've still got some nocturnal LLJ riding up and over the cold pool, which at this point is pretty large.

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I know a scientist who works at NIH and the word internally there seems to be that the vaccines being hyped now have a very low chance of being generally effective across the global population. They may work in some limited capacity, perhaps offering some people a degree of immunity for a few months. There is a reason it takes 10 years to develop a successful vaccine that sees widespread use. I think people have been misled into believing a good vaccine is only a few months away.
Novavaxs matrix M vaccine is going to work.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Looks like another formed near MIW (causing the 99 mph gust) and now a new descending RIJ has bowed out the line up there.

And the new cells are forming because you've still got some nocturnal LLJ riding up and over the cold pool, which at this point is pretty large.

which causing the mesovorticies to form? Is it associated from the overnight/early AM convection? Didn't really pay much attention to the setup but now I wish I did. that type of MLJ moving over an EML with lapse rates over 8 and over 3000 MLCAPE...yikes. Rather significant s/w rotating through too

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like another formed near MIW (causing the 99 mph gust) and now a new descending RIJ has bowed out the line up there.

And the new cells are forming because you've still got some nocturnal LLJ riding up and over the cold pool, which at this point is pretty large.

Screen doors slammed shut?

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

which causing the mesovorticies to form? Is it associated from the overnight/early AM convection? Didn't really pay much attention to the setup but now I wish I did. that type of MLJ moving over an EML with lapse rates over 8 and over 3000 MLCAPE...yikes. Rather significant s/w rotating through too

Mesovortices in QLCS type events is a result of line normal bulk shear in the 0-3 km layer. If you can get 30+ knots of shear normal to the line, they are likely to form.

Sometimes they result in tornadoes if other ingredients are in place, but more often just enhance wind locally due to pressure perturbations.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Mesovortices in QLCS type events is a result of line normal bulk shear in the 0-3 km layer. If you can get 30+ knots of shear normal to the line, they are likely to form.

Sometimes they result in tornadoes if other ingredients are in place, but more often just enhance wind locally due to pressure perturbations.

Great information, thank you. I did not know this. 

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